Zero COVID crippled China’s economy: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/covid-zero-broke-the-system-that-keeps-china-s-factories-running/ar-AA17AcEg?cvid=1e56279d6b044fa3b1b56f0f9fa06908 . In the US, we have seen many US workers leave the economy and not come back. Is the same thing happening (in a different way) in China? The tight US labor market is not just because most of those looking can find work. It’s also because many are no longer looking.
China’s senior leadership declares “decisive victory” over COVID: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-declares-decisive-victory-over-covid-19-2023-02-17/ . Based on everything we know about COVID, China’s reporting is widely regarded as fantasy. However, at some point, the truth will sneak out.
Moderna says COVID vaccine will remain free to uninsured: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2023-02-16/moderna-bows-to-pressure-says-covid-19-vaccines-will-remain-free-after-emergency-ends . I am unsure what the consequences of this statement are. There are other costs in delivering the vaccine to arms beyond the vaccine itself. How will those costs be covered?
WSJ: Evergrande’s difficulties continue: https://www.wsj.com/articles/evergrande-probe-finds-management-missteps-and-convoluted-financing-arrangements-d7796782 . While China’s COVID problems are attracting all the attention, there is still the matter of the property sector work-out …
Weekly jobless claims fall to 194,000: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/29/jobless-claims-hit-five-month-low-despite-feds-efforts-to-slow-labor-market.html . As the article notes, this is the latest round of data suggesting the Fed must continue to raise rates beyond previous expectations. Also, core inflation remains sticky near 5%. Initially today, the stock market ignored the data stream. However, the late-day drop offers a glimmer of hope that reality will seep into the market. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jobless-claims-remained-nearly-steady-last-week-d53fd9db . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/judge-seeks-tougher-bail-restrictions-for-sam-bankman-fried-f4602e45 .
CBO projects major long-term problems for the US economy: https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-business-727cf4baffceeadc82c3c3297deb6ddc . Again, we wait for the market to catch up with the data stream.
Are retail (amateur) investors screwing up the stock market?: https://www.yahoo.com/now/jpmorgan-top-strategist-warns-markets-175723967.html . This is a plausible theory as to why the market seems detached from the data. One expects that at some point, the market will crush those picking a fight with the Fed. As we know, their behavior directly violates Rule No. 2.
The result may be larger Fed rate hikes: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-traders-suddenly-see-significant-chance-of-a-june-rate-hike-by-the-fed-293ba2ea . Exactly. This is the point we have been making for some time. WSJ: Two Fed officials would have supported a 50 basis point increase at the last meeting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-mester-would-have-supported-larger-rate-increase-this-month-3330bb09 .
Turkey-Syria earthquake death toll now about 44,000: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2023/2/17/turkey-syria-earthquake-live-death-toll-nears-44000 . Sadly, media reporting on this catastrophe is shrinking. However, the report here of over 38,000 confirmed deaths in Turkey, combined with prior reports of at least 5,800 deaths in Syria, means confirmed deaths near 44,000. Given the remoteness of some areas, the huge numbers of homeless, and the cold winter temperatures, the death toll will continue to increase.
Ukraine war slows Eastern European economies: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-to-take-sharp-economic-toll-in-eastern-europe-715b5470 .
Biden says latest “object” shootdowns not related to Chinese spying campaign: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-is-expected-to-speak-on-chinese-balloon-unidentified-objects-42917445 . The objects may have been research balloons.
Supreme Court removes Title 42 immigration case from oral argument calendar: https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/3861778-supreme-court-removes-title-42-oral-argument-from-calendar/ . The commentary in the article explains why. When the federal COVID emergency ends in May, the Title 42 orders also end, making the case moot.
One of the sharks circling OJ moves closer: https://apnews.com/article/trump-georgia-election-investigation-grand-jury-documents-40535dd2b4401e804af515229c6c2d68 . Note that the judge, in making the partial release, indicated he was balancing the right to a fair trial with the public’s right to know. In other words, he is releasing meat. As readers know, I expect federal indictments before July 4 of this year, so that trials can occur before the 2024 ramp-up of the presidential election.
As to who the lying witnesses might be, one would have to read the full special grand jury transcript (which is not public) to know, but an odds-on favorite would be Rudy Giuliani.
DOJ in DC takes over corruption probe of Texas AG Ken Paxton: https://www.texastribune.org/2023/02/16/texas-attorney-general-ken-paxton-corruption-doj/ . It appears an argument by Ken Paxton’s attorney may have caused this shift. If so, that defense attorney just brought the heavyweights in against his client. Any way you slice it, this was really stupid strategy.
FTX founder SBF continues to screw himself to the wall: https://apnews.com/article/legal-proceedings-prisons-lewis-a-kaplan-palo-alto-business-28e34dcf7ab6183946ca8c77772e340b . This really is the most over-the-top violation of Rule No. 1 I’ve seen in some time. The judge has made it crystal clear that he has lost patience with this self-important little pr**k. SBF’s future now includes jail time in the near future unless his attitude and behavior changes immediately. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/judge-seeks-tougher-bail-restrictions-for-sam-bankman-fried-f4602e45 .
WSJ: Our list of crypto firms to watch: https://www.wsj.com/articles/crypto-layoffs-and-bankruptcies-in-2023-heres-the-list-to-watch-7d85b645 . A related problem: Banks are backing away from crypto: https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-are-breaking-up-with-crypto-during-regulatory-crackdown-22de1832 .
DC cop fed info to Proud Boys leader: https://apnews.com/article/biden-proud-boys-washington-law-enforcement-capitol-siege-07b606c578399a4e24cc382a17f6f470 . One can understand the police working to build relationships with “activists”. However, the behavior described here seems quite inappropriate.
Nikki Haley proposes mandatory competency test for politicians over 75: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3859468-haley-calls-for-mental-competency-tests-for-politicians-over-75/ . However, even brief reflection demonstrates this idea is completely unworkable. Haley’s been angling to run for president for years, and this is what she’s got for a platform? I think the test idea does disqualify one politician – Nikki Haley.
Tesla fires union organizers in Buffalo: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/tesla-fires-dozens-of-workers-over-union-campaign-complaint-alleges.html . The timing is outrageous and unbelievably stupid. In Musk we apparently have another jackass who thinks he can litigate his way out of anything. One would expect this to accelerate organizing efforts and successes against Tesla. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-workers-say-dozens-were-fired-in-retaliation-for-union-drive-23df9af5 .
Tesla recalls over 360,000 vehicles over software safety issues: https://money.yahoo.com/tesla-recalls-362758-vehicles-over-self-driving-safety-concerns-stock-falls-211401653.html . Musk has an issue with the word “recall”. However, in Fed lingo, that’s what it is. So get over it. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-recalls-roughly-362-800-vehicles-to-fix-full-self-driving-beta-software-487eb6 .
Indictment for father of suspect in July 4 parade shooting: https://apnews.com/article/chicago-illinois-indictments-138a47cc6ee03fdb6535c63cada1b911 . The indictment is totally warranted, and the father should serve jail time. Parents have a duty to protect the public from their dangerous children. Signing the license for an AR-15-style rifle is more like being an accomplice to murder here. And, based on the photos, the father has made another serious mistake by not lawyering up early on.
WSJ: Alex Murdaugh trial: Prosecution nears completion of case: https://www.wsj.com/articles/whats-next-in-murdaugh-trial-state-to-rest-case-defense-plans-to-critique-investigation-399f77f .
Bruce Willis diagnosed with frontotemporal dementia (FTD): https://www.eonline.com/news/1365272/bruce-willis-diagnosed-with-frontotemporal-dementia . This progressive disease has a life expectancy of 6 to 8 years after diagnosis. There is no known cure. According to reports, this disease is the most common form of Alzheimer’s for persons under 60 (Willis is now 67). WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bruce-williss-aphasia-has-progressed-family-says-3fe999e2 .
Baseball’s Tim McCarver passes at 81: https://sports.yahoo.com/tim-mccarver-2-time-world-series-champion-and-tv-broadcaster-dies-at-81-195100055.html . McCarver was living proof that the person on the field who best understands the game is the catcher. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/tim-mccarver-major-league-catcher-and-hall-of-fame-broadcaster-dies-at-81-2ac32b87 .
Tiger Woods shoots 69 in his first competitive round in 7 months: https://sports.yahoo.com/genesis-invitational-tiger-woods-late-birdie-rally-saves-opening-round-at-riviera-011050435.html . We’ll see if Tiger’s strength holds up, but 3 birdies was an impressive finish to his first round.