XBB tsunami coming to China: https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/china-braces-for-new-covid-19-wave-with-up-to-65-million-weekly-cases-16728131.htm . China is apparently in the grips of a tidal wave of COVID variant XBB cases. A Chinese expert predicts 40 million cases a week by the end of May (that’s in 8 days) and 65 million a week by the end of June. In other words, there will be more than 200 million cases in China during June. If we apply the estimated COVID mortality rate of 0.3% to this figure, there will be 600,000 COVID deaths in China during June, or 20,000 a day. Sadly, we expect no data from the Chinese government.
COVID booster safe during pregnancy: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2023-05-23/study-original-covid-19-booster-shots-not-associated-with-miscarriages . And of course this is particularly important news for pregnant women over 65 (just kidding …).
Long COVID still affects millions: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2023-05-23/federal-survey-1-in-10-previously-infected-u-s-adults-report-long-covid-symptoms . This problem currently receives short shrift from the media and the Federal government. We are now truly in the midst of a hoax – the hoax that the pandemic is over.
WSJ: Medical considerations around OTC birth control pills: https://www.wsj.com/articles/opill-birth-control-pill-contraception-d1786ef2 .
WSJ: Social media’s mental health risks: https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-media-could-pose-profound-risk-of-harm-to-young-peoples-mental-health-surgeon-general-warns-db9eaaf8 .
Montana governor signs gender-at-birth bill: https://apnews.com/article/transgender-birth-certificate-define-sex-male-female-e17e5eae36991f8ca1d197ddebad0b72 . Once again, the GOP refuses to allow people to control their own body. Other than currying political favor with our less enlightened citizens, the only purpose of the GOP war on the LGBTQ+ community appears to be to force them to move out of state. In other words, if we don’t see them, then they don’t exist. WSJ: Current status of gender-affirming care restrictions by state: https://www.wsj.com/articles/transgender-laws-rights-states-4fd67b16 . This boils down to a war on those who are different from “us”. Disgusting …
Draft WHO treaty on future pandemics: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-05-23/rich-countries-should-play-bigger-role-in-combating-pandemics-who-draft . Of course, we did quite a bit this time around – like developing vaccines in record time. The pandemic fight suffered from inadequate and slow vaccination of the global population. More: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-05-23/explainer-how-the-world-health-organization-could-fight-future-pandemics .
WHO “overstretched” by increasing global health emergencies: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-05-23/who-overstretched-in-response-to-increasing-health-emergencies . Frankly, the WHO’s response to COVID was something less than competent. This will not reflect well on their pleas for more funds.
World Bank seeks more funds for global emergencies, including climate change: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-05-23/world-bank-seeks-grants-new-capital-to-fight-global-crises . With many governments around the world currently practicing deficit budgeting, it will be very difficult to expand the funding of international organizations.
WSJ: Recession guru says (finally) another is coming: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pro-take-yield-curve-pioneer-says-this-inversion-warning-is-real-ac0b606 . Ah, academics … As readers know, I consider the inverted yield curve a powerful indicator of a coming recession. This guy invented the concept. But he doubted his own model in January. Now he has returned to the fold. And by the way, yes, he’s an academic and a Canadian, but even so, that’s an awful haircut.
WSJ: US economic growth continues: https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-economy-cools-down-as-interest-rate-rises-bite-2532af5c . And so, as inflation remains high, the Fed must raise rates further. And, if businesses are paying higher interest costs, they have to raise, not lower, prices. The basic principles of economics have not changed. And by the way, defaulting on the debt will raise interest rates for some time to come.
WSJ: Why inflation rose over the last two years: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-inflation-erupted-two-top-economists-have-the-answer-6919042c . Here is the same conclusion from a somewhat different perspective. The US economy must cool for inflation to subside.
Retiring abroad: WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/retirement-in-paradise-isnt-without-financial-headaches-98f06313 . You can find the number of Social Security beneficiaries living abroad in the 10 countries shown in the graphic by hovering your mouse over each line. It turns out that there are over 290,000 expats living in these 10 countries, led by Mexico with 71,376. The advice in the article mostly applies to the wealthier folks who move abroad.
However, the healthcare situation should be considered by everyone. Personally, I’d be reluctant to give up Medicare and US medical care. More likely for me would be to maintain a residence in the US and spend 4 winter months in a warmer European locale.
WSJ: The battle for extended-stay hotel customers: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hilton-marriott-square-off-in-extended-stay-battle-c4b98bc2 .
US bond market remains in La-La Land: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-05-23/marketmind-fed-hawks-re-emerge-dollar-pumped . This article suggests the US bond market is somehow rational in reducing its estimated rate cuts this year from 50 basis points to 34. My view, expressed for many months here, is that there will be no rate cuts this year. Furthermore, I believe that there will one or two more 25 basis point increases this year as inflation remains sticky. So let’s just see who’s right …
WSJ: How stupid people go broke: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-housing-bust-comes-for-thousands-of-small-time-investors-3934beb3 . I remain amazed at people who leverage up with no understanding of interest rate risk. This goofball owned $500 million in Sun Belt apartments financed on adjustable rate mortgages last year. This year, he’s lost millions (and 60% of his rentals to foreclosures) as rising rates blew up his model. Sadly, he could have taken smaller losses if he’d just listened to the Fed when they began raising rates, and refinanced to fixed rate mortgages. He’s apparently taken many investors down the tubes with him.
The insurtech bust: https://www.wsj.com/articles/technology-was-supposed-to-transform-insurance-pricing-it-hasnt-bc80c655 . I’m including this article because many of my actuarial readers likely saw the same recent notice I did from the Society of Actuaries touting a seminar discussing actuaries who had made the transition to insurtech. As is so often the case, the SOA remains completely out of touch with reality. Next year I will have been a member for 50 years, and the La-La Land mentality at SOA has never changed.
Upper Basin states agree to Lower Basin states Colorado River water deal: https://www.fox13now.com/news/local-news/utah-other-states-agree-to-colorado-river-water-conservation-plan . An alert reader sent me additional details on the situation. Due to past litigation, the Secretary of the Interior serves as the overseer of the 7.5 million acre-feet of Colorado River water allocated to the Lower Basin states. She does not have this power over the Upper Basin states, which also have a 7.5 million acre-feet allotment but are not yet at full utilization.
Oath Keepers sentencing begins Thursday: https://apnews.com/article/oath-keepers-sentencing-jan-6-stewart-rhodes-a33d6432875bd97fda41a60b4bb967f9 . I agree with prosecutors that sentencing should reflect the severity of the behavior involved. Rhodes’ sentence will likely be at least 20 years, and I’m fine with the prosecutors’ recommendation of 25 years, including the terrorism enhancement.
WSJ: Special prosecutor nears completion of classified documents probe: https://www.wsj.com/articles/special-counsel-is-wrapping-up-trump-mar-a-lago-probe-99cd2517 . There is an obvious slant to the Journal’s reporting in its discussion of the classified documents in Joe Biden’s vice-presidential files (not a defense for Orange Julius) and the former OJ attorney saying he doesn’t think OJ will be indicted (what else would he say?). And OJ’s involvement in the GOP presidential nomination race is irrelevant. I not only expect an indictment, but a conviction.
WSJ: OJ hush money case trial date set for March 2024: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-hush-money-case-to-go-to-trial-in-march-2024-1198321c . The wheels of justice grind slowly …
DeMentis campaign manager a proud bigot: https://buzzloving.com/desantis-campaign-staffer-celebrates-floridas-lgbtq-families-leaving/ . We already know this attitude has created a huge clash with Disney that DeMentis appears to be losing. Now his campaign manager doubles down on a theme that just won’t fly nationally. These self-inflicted wounds will likely derail his campaign as more donors realize Ron is not ready for prime-time.
Draft Tucker PAC ceases operations: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4016391-draft-tucker-pac-ceases-activities-after-legal-threat-from-carlson/ . So these “activists” wanted to draft a guy whose former network successfully raised the legal defense that no reasonable person would believe Tucker Carlson. While we often comment that stupidity has no limits, these folks apparently wanted to generate a mailing list of those farthest away from reality – and get their marks to pay for it …
WSJ: Why we still can’t pass immigration reforms: https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-members-offer-rare-bipartisan-immigration-measure-6c76fcc . So the House GOP wants to make the border a major campaign issue, but bottles up immigration reform. The hypocrisy is sickening.