Wuhan market considered pandemic source: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/new-studies-say-wuhan-market-is-the-only-plausible-source-of-covid-19-pandemic/ar-AA100HBQ?cvid=92c85c0555dc41038bfbba4b09bdcb49 . These two new studies, using different techniques, both point to the Wuhan market. Also note the evidence that COVID jumped from animal to human in two separate lineages. In other words, there were at least two jumps.
Improved vaccines: the multiple variant challenge: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-07-26/biden-administration-wants-new-vaccines-that-protect-against-covid-19-infection-from-multiple-variants .
New Zealand COVID cases trend downward: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-07-26/covid-infections-fall-in-new-zealand-worst-case-scenario-likely-avoided .
Experimental gum traps COVID viruses: https://www.aol.com/news/experimental-chewing-gum-reduces-omicron-163255898-172622019.html . This has the potential to help long COVID sufferers clear the virus from their bodies.
WSJ: New heart drugs: https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmakers-hope-new-heart-drugs-boost-sales-revive-market-11658841276 .
WSJ: Teva to settle opioid litigation for $4.25 billion: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-shares-of-teva-pharma-jump-on-pending-pact-on-opioid-litigation-11658872950 . And of course the stock ROSE on this news.
Rethinking obesity: https://www.aol.com/lifestyle/obesity-long-considered-personal-failing-090204285.html . My sense is that for some people, obesity is a medical condition, but for many more, lifestyle choices (foods and exercise) predict the outcome. So this article really does not alter the current understanding. It is also well understood that chronic inflammation in the body is undesirable and unhealthy. Obesity is a major health issue in the US, perhaps the major one now, so ongoing research is welcome and appropriate.
Many of the suggestions in the article relate to the patient’s attitudes. Counseling the patient in a manner designed to maximize compliance is clearly appropriate. However, let’s assume that proper counseling is effective. Society is likely to expect the obese to obtain appropriate counseling, and look down upon those who do not. In turn, this path may not be available to those who lack the finances or insurance giving them access to these services. Obesity remains a complex problem without simple solutions.
If the US had government-provided health care, this counseling would be available to everyone. Also, the government system would have an easier time moving to a system focused on prevention than does the current profit-driven system. So count me as one who believes healthcare should be a right, as it is in almost all developed countries except the US.
Inflation discussion: https://apnews.com/article/inflation-covid-health-gross-domestic-product-economy-89cbfc145ad34a91679ffa43e617c896 . Sigh. Here is another article promoting the NBER definition over the commonly used “two quarters of contraction” definition. However, NBER does not have a fixed definition of a recession – it assesses each situation individually. The translation here, I think, is that the administration wants to take the focus off the common definition. This is because they don’t want to declare a recession ahead of the midterm election. UPDATE: Biden confirms this view: https://apnews.com/article/inflation-biden-covid-health-521d7bf2d04f79744c39a1506b6da763 .
All of this, however, is beside the point, which is that inflation is damaging many people’s lives. In response, the Fed uses the only tool it has, raising interest rates, to slow the economy and thus hopefully slow price increases. The problem is, the tool is ill-suited to price increases caused by supply chain disruption. But the Fed must raise. Thus, the Fed is very likely to raise interest rates too much, and push the economy into recession. And then, the economy will damage more people’s lives.
A contrarian view on Fed rate hikes: https://www.benzinga.com/government/22/07/28213052/fed-will-reverse-course-tomorrow-and-halt-future-rate-hikes-analyst-predicts . In my view it’s fine to be data-driven, but the data absolutely does not support this view. We’ll find out about rates on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, another well-known investor predicts a horrible market crash: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/veteran-investor-jim-rogers-predicts-134441495.html . My expectation is that the market has not yet reached bottom, however Rogers strikes me as overly glum. I do agree with Rogers that the Fed must continue to raise rates. And, as readers know, I believe we are already in a recession, and that it will worsen in the third quarter. So again, we will see.
WSJ: We think it’s a “tea leaves” process: https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-fed-raises-interest-rates-wednesday-investors-to-look-for-clues-about-whats-next-11658827800 . Here’s a clue: 50 basis points is the reasonable expectation for the September meeting. Get a grip, and watch the data …
Roberts tried and failed to save abortion rights: https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/politics/supreme-court-john-roberts-abortion-dobbs/index.html . I feel confident this is true. Roberts plays the long game, and very well. He is certainly smart enough to realize the Dobbs decision was suicide for the Court. However, none of the other conservatives are that bright. It’s really just that simple.
There was considerable speculation at the time of the leak that a conservative clerk had leaked in order to lock in the Court. This article certainly supports that view.
The entrenched hypocrisy of the GOP: https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/gop-lawmaker-attended-gay-sons-wedding-3-days-voting-sex-marriage-rcna39863 . This article points out the current operating structure of the GOP. Historically, the model of the two major US parties was to debate the issues to try to win the hearts and minds of voters. Now, the GOP model is to create a cohesive base and to turn out those voters in large numbers. This means their politicians go along with what is needed to turn out the base, putting their personal power (reelection) above the needs of the country.
For decades, there have been Republican politicians who have been aggressively anti-gay, only to later retire when it came out that they themselves were gay. The latest iteration of this two-faced crap includes Ron DeMentis, who has put himself at odds with Florida’s largest employer (Disney) by championing a law to bash the LGBTQ+ community. DeMentis is now being described in GOP circles as “Orange Julius with a brain”. What a pathetically low bar to clear.
GOP links to extremism: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-donald-trump-campaigns-race-and-ethnicity-be616cae0967ca6ee9c78ac1efee8e31 . Joe Kent’s race is in the Portland suburb of Vancouver (Clark County), Washington. The author apparently has limited familiarity with the Northwest, as far-right racist politics has been a part of the scene in this area since at least the KKK movement here in the 1920’s.
Our airwaves are loaded with advertising for this race. Joe Kent is being criticized, but not for the material in this article. The anti-Kent ads claim he previously lived in Portland and registered as a Democrat, and that he spoke approvingly of Bernie Sanders. One ad concludes, “Don’t vote for Socialist Joe”. Kent responds that “he is the only candidate in the race endorsed by Orange Julius”. So Kent is attacked not for his far-right connections, but rather his alleged association with Democrats. Apparently that is worse than his employment of a Proud Boy, at least in a GOP primary.
WSJ: Russia to withdraw from International Space Station after 2024: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-says-it-will-withdraw-from-international-space-station-11658844977 .
WSJ: Charter Communications hit with $7 billion in punitive damages for MURDER OF CUSTOMER: https://www.wsj.com/articles/charter-communications-hit-with-7-billion-in-punitive-damages-for-2019-customer-murder-11658874099 . Wow. You cannot make this stuff up.