News for June 29 — The Virus Spike Has Mutated

The virus’ spike has mutated to become more stable: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8471421/Mutated-version-coronavirus-stronger-spike-proteins.html (link replaced 7/10/21). More: https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-mutation-explained.html (link replaced 7/10/21).

Texas: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/505137-texas-bar-owners-sue-to-overturn-ordered-closures (link replaced 7/10/21). So, these owners can’t see the difference between social distancing in a salon and in a bar? California: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/06/29/california-coronavirus-bail-bribes-golden-state-killer-mon-news/3278944001/ (link replaced 7/10/21).

Remdesivir price: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-housing/u-s-pending-home-sales-jump-a-record-44-3-in-may-idUSKBN2401TF (link replaced 12/27/20).

Fauci on herd immunity: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/health/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-contact-tracing-aspen/index.html (link replaced 7/10/21). The article is mistitled – it’s not just who gets COVID-19, it’s how effective the vaccine is. This factor of speed vs efficacy in vaccine development is not often discussed – it’s another reason that multiple vaccine trials are a good thing.

China: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/29/china-seals-off-more-than-400000-in-anxin-county-to-tackle-small-covid-19-cluster . Note that China just seals off areas, while we leave individual states to attempt to limit travelers from high-risk areas. The Chinese approach is obviously more effective from a public health standpoint. Direct application in the US is likely too draconian relative to our rights to interstate commerce; however, we could craft a more effective US interstate travel model with federal coordination and state cooperation. For example, it could be based on R0 management.

Mask requirements: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/us-states-require-masks/story?id=71472434 (link replaced 7/10/21; 4 states didn’t require masks as of 6/29/20, per original link).

More on the mask flap: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/28/us-health-secretary-window-closing-stop-coronavirus-cases-pass-25m . An important point: if the latest infections are more at younger ages, overall mortality statistics may improve temporarily, but asymptomatic transmission will likely increase.

Masks: social pressure, corporations and Karens: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/starbucks-karen-barista-san-diego-84000-dollars-tips-mask-encounter/ . She’s a yoga instructor? More meditation needed.

Another area where coronavirus has disrupted modeling: https://www.wsj.com/articles/flying-blind-into-a-credit-storm-widespread-deferrals-mean-banks-cant-tell-whos-creditworthy-11593423001 (link replaced 7/10/21). It’s interesting to contrast this with the success of Bank of America: https://agilewriter.com/Biography/Giannini.htm .

NPR stats & graphics: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s .

Wondering to what extent these houses become residences or rentals: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-housing/u-s-pending-home-sales-jump-a-record-44-3-in-may-idUSKBN2401TF (link replaced 12/27/20). Very low interest rates together with massive personal income reduction suggest that these may be investment purchases, which is rather speculative right now.

Does anyone have a handle on this “second wave”?: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/28/chesapeake-energy-a-pioneer-in-the-us-shale-revolution-files-for-bankruptcy-protection.html (link replaced 7/10/21). And: https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/business/cirque-du-soleil-bankruptcy/index.html (link replaced 7/10/21).

A very intelligent view of last week’s market action: https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/stocks-set-adrift-after-losing-propellers-and-anchors (link replaced 7/10/21). And of course the Dow then went up over 500 points today.

“Medically disrespectful”: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/florida-doctors-to-jacksonville-mayor-hosting-republican-national-convention-is-medically-disrespectful (link replaced 12/27/20).

Cancer: DNA mutation and evolution: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01815-6 . Heavy reading, but interesting research with many different implications. Turns out that chemotherapy and radiation leave evidence in their trail of DNA mutations.

WSJ: How some doctors relax: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-do-doctors-treating-coronavirus-relax-by-playing-the-game-pandemic-11593369385 . A rather off-the-wall observation (what’s new, right?). It occurred to me that our measures of population density in the US can be quite misleading. In Oregon, 52.9% of the state is owned by the federal government, so our population density is twice what you get by just dividing population by land area. Another 2.8% of Oregon is owned by the state. The federal government owns 47% of the land in the West; the highest percentage is in Nevada where the feds own 84.9% of the state.