News for October 1 — Vaccine Trials; Remdesivir Supplies

WSJ: COVID-19 vaccine trials only need a small number of people to get sick: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-trials-need-only-a-fraction-of-people-to-get-sick-11601550013 . Please remember Haseltine’s warnings about the vaccine study protocols.  

WSJ: Pfizer tells employees vaccine won’t be affected by politics: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccines-development-wont-be-affected-by-politics-pfizer-ceo-says-11601580094 . Pfizer spokesperson: “A conclusive readout on efficacy is likely by the end of October.” Haseltine …

WSJ: US remdesivir supplies to be distributed by Gilead: https://www.wsj.com/articles/all-remdesivir-supplies-to-be-distributed-in-u-s-by-maker-gilead-sciences-11601575201 . HHS involvement had led to shortages.

Accurate, rapid COVID-19 tests will be approved by WHO and available globally from … South Korea: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/28/covid-19-tests-that-give-results-in-minutes-to-be-rolled-out-across-world .

WSJ: Amazon says 19,000 workers believed positive for COVID-19: https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-says-more-than-19-000-workers-presumed-positive-for-covid-19-11601591526 . This sounds like a meat packing plant until you realize Amazon has 1.3 million workers. Rhode Island’s population is just over 1 million, and they have almost 25,000 reported cases (and a far higher number of infections).

WSJ: US traffic fatality rate rose in first half of 2020: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-increased-rate-of-crash-deaths-on-u-s-roads-11601582215 . This is true but misleading. Traffic fatalities fell 2% while miles traveled fell 16%.

WSJ: US Army suicides spiking: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-army-saw-rise-in-suicides-as-covid-19-pandemic-locked-down-nation-11601581910 .

College student with COVID-19 recovers from respiratory symptoms but dies from neurological complications: https://www.hcpress.com/news/app-state-student-chad-dorrill-dies-of-neurological-complications-related-to-covid-19.html .

WSJ: Global round-up: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-many-as-half-of-new-york-city-restaurants-could-close-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic-11601588267 .

Wisconsin cases surge: https://www.fox6now.com/news/calls-for-testing-action-renewed-as-wisconsins-virus-cases-rise . Trump plans two rallies in the state this weekend: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/01/trump-rallies-wisconsin-covid-424650 . WSJ: Hope Hicks tests positive: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hope-hicks-top-trump-adviser-said-to-test-positive-for-coronavirus-11601602377 . Update: The article has been updated to say both the President and First Lady have tested positive for coronavirus.

WSJ: Augmented reality advances understanding of the body: https://www.wsj.com/articles/augmented-reality-offers-a-promise-of-incision-free-autopsies-11601485158 . The investigation here has much broader application than autopsies. The question is the extent to which science can understand a particular human from external examination. This should help establish the most informative internal intrusions, which has direct application to medicine.

British medical breakthrough: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-england-54331994 . Hey, the flying nun has been replaced by the flying paramedic.

WSJ: Short-term funding measure passed: https://www.wsj.com/articles/spending-bill-passed-by-senate-11601503676 . The more interesting question is what business the Senate must take up before November 3, and what is subject to filibuster. The Democrats may have missed a negotiation opportunity here.

WSJ: Weekly jobless claims remain over 800,000: https://www.wsj.com/articles/weekly-jobless-claims-coronavirus-10-01-2020-11601489445 . This makes 28 weeks above 800,000, and as well the first month since April that net employment gains are under 1 million.

WSJ: US manufacturing improves but job losses continue: https://www.wsj.com/articles/factories-cut-jobs-despite-bounce-from-post-covid-lockdown-11601550772 .

WSJ: US auto sales rebound: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-auto-sales-show-signs-of-recovery-in-third-quarter-11601569086. Actually, pickups pickup more than cars in the latest month (August).

WSJ: Personal income drops as unemployment assistance halved: https://www.wsj.com/articles/incomes-starting-to-buckle-as-federal-support-fades-11601569557 . Again, there is a theme to these last three articles. Connect the dots. Things will get worse as savings run out. Without another relief package, the recovery seems doomed. In particular, the gap between rich and poor increases daily. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-household-income-could-pose-hurdle-for-economic-recovery-11601549369 .

WSJ: House passes $2.2 trillion relief package: https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-aid-talks-still-stuck-after-counteroffer-by-mnuchin-11601570240 . This feels like a deal can be made. House is at $2.2 trillion; White House is at $1.6 trillion. Call it $1.9 trillion; several Republican senators at least will join Senate Democrats to “support the President” and pass it. House adjournment approaches.

WSJ: Ransomware payments may violate US law: https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasury-warns-against-keeping-ransomware-payments-quiet-11601587735 . The business decision to pay ransom will become more complex if Treasury steps up enforcement actions.

WSJ: PPP loan forgiveness: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-start-forgiving-ppp-loans-after-borrowers-complained-11601414687 . This article has been updated from 2 days ago to clarify that SBA, not Treasury, will administer loan forgiveness. As mentioned then, “Over 96,000 applications have been filed, starting in early August, and so far 0 approvals. One expects that oversight will be troubled as well.”

WSJ: US debt levels expected to weaken and lengthen recovery: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-economy-was-laden-with-debt-before-covid-thats-bad-news-for-a-recovery-11601566931 . Another in the WSJ series “The COVID Storm”. We are experiencing record unemployment and record business failures. It seems likely that this will lead to record bankruptcies. This is why the Fed is forcing banks to conserve capital, as reported yesterday.

WSJ: Europe re-engineers COVID-19 management as spread demographics change: https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-covid-fight-has-a-new-target-the-youth-11601553600 . Reining in nightlife is now a priority.

WSJ: European Central Bank buys bonds: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-steps-up-support-for-credit-markets-11601540480 . This is similar to recent US Fed actions. The appropriateness and efficacy of these interventions is unclear.

WSJ: US asset Brexit: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-banks-pull-more-assets-from-london-ahead-of-crucial-brexit-deadline-11601551277 . Brexit remains the stupidest thing a country has done to its own economy, which for England is being a global asset intermediator.

WSJ: US again lowers refugee acceptance: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-sets-cap-on-refugees-allowed-into-u-s-at-15-000-another-record-low-11601574050 . Notably, we will accept very few refugees from Hong Kong. Other countries will benefit from the skill sets of these individuals.

WSJ: Judge blocks visa ban: https://www.wsj.com/articles/judge-partially-blocks-trump-administration-from-enforcing-visa-ban-11601593554 . Companies need global talent. So does the US economy.

WSJ: The term “white supremacist”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/supremacist-a-proxy-for-racism-since-its-early-days-11601589261 .

WSJ: Does short-selling ban artificially inflate markets?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-koreas-market-rebound-heats-up-argument-over-bringing-back-short-selling-11601544602 . Of course it does. The question is whether preventing volatility is worth this artifice (see previous article).

WSJ: Financial control of the news: https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-pledges-1-billion-in-licensing-payments-to-news-publishers-11601546401 . With newspapers starved for cash, journalism is ripe for financial influence.

WSJ: Big-box warehouses filling with e-commerce: https://www.wsj.com/articles/demand-for-big-box-warehouses-soars-under-e-commerce-surge-report-says-11601546402 . This is also the possible future of some big-box malls.

WSJ: Food industry riding eat-at-home wave: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pepsi-conagra-still-riding-pandemic-food-wave-11601567614 . Yes, but restaurants are failing in record numbers, which affects their employees, landlords, suppliers and so on. WSJ: More on PepsiCo: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pepsico-sales-rise-as-beverage-segment-improves-11601550380 .

WSJ: NYC may lose half its 24,000 restaurants: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-many-as-half-of-new-york-city-restaurants-could-close-due-to-coronavirus-pandemic-11601588267 .

WSJ: NYC hotspot reflects distrust, apathy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-city-officials-work-to-combat-distrust-in-coronavirus-hot-spot-11601591099 . Maybe they should be asking, “Do you know anyone who works in a restaurant?”

WSJ: Moody’s downgrades NY and NYC debt: https://www.wsj.com/articles/moodys-downgrades-new-york-state-new-york-city-credit-ratings-11601606598 . This will happen to other state and local governments without federal relief aid.

WSJ: Athene, MassMutual tender offer for American Equity: https://www.wsj.com/articles/athene-massmutual-made-over-3-billion-takeover-offer-to-american-equity-11601544608 . Insurer consolidation continues.

WSJ: Boeing finalizes 787 move to Charleston: https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-to-consolidate-787-dreamliner-production-in-south-carolina-11601567332 .

WSJ: TikTok makes founders of Susquehanna rich: https://www.wsj.com/articles/secretive-high-speed-trading-firm-hits-jackpot-with-tiktok-11601544610 . This article mixes apples, oranges and anchovies. The founders are long-term holders of ByteDance. So this has nothing to do with the underlying business, except that their business has been very profitable and they’ve made money on their money. Then there’s being secretive and playing poker. Apples, oranges and anchovies.

WSJ: Hong Kong: Dominate the streets: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hong-kongs-leader-says-stability-has-been-restored-with-city-under-heavy-police-presence-11601543909 .

WSJ: Will Rio Tinto screw Australia again?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/rio-tintos-next-ceo-will-be-tested-by-awkward-africa-decision-11601544605 . WSJ prints the critical facts, and then misses the point. The chart shows three countries dominate this export market: China is the major buyer, Australia and Brazil the major sellers. China is making its investment in Africa pay. The financial losers will be Australia and Brazil. China is showing considerable skill in its geopolitical investments.

WSJ: China’s Belt and Road a bridge to nowhere: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-imperial-overreach-of-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-11601558851 . This article essentially contends that because the West screwed this up, China will too. China is buying influence in countries that need outside partners to advance. It seems foolish to brush off China’s efforts or assume they will fail to learn from these investments.

WSJ: Venezuela’s food crisis: https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-food-chain-is-breaking-and-millions-go-hungry-11601544601 . The US tried to oust Maduro. We failed and essentially walked away.

WSJ: DOJ lets Sargent Marine off the hook: https://www.wsj.com/articles/asphalt-company-got-70-million-break-on-penalty-11601544601 . Why is company survival relevant to punishing criminal behavior? We don’t do this for persons, just companies. There may well be a reason, but the public is entitled to know what it is.

WSJ: Full-day Tokyo Stock Exchange shutdown: https://www.wsj.com/articles/tokyo-stock-exchange-trading-is-halted-by-system-error-11601515806 . Normal operations expected Friday: https://www.wsj.com/articles/tokyo-stock-exchange-sets-restart-after-daylong-shutdown-11601555113 . This article has been updated to reflect that the exchange opened Friday morning. A lot of WSJ updates/rewrites today.

WSJ: California corporate board diversity: https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-rolls-out-diversity-quotas-for-corporate-boards-11601507471 .

WSJ: Amy Coney Barrett: “The barbaric legacy of Roe v. Wade”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/supreme-court-nominee-amy-coney-barrett-signed-antiabortion-ad-in-2006-11601592289 . Opposition research has turned up clear evidence that she is personally, strongly opposed to Roe v. Wade.

WSJ: The debate debate: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-campaign-opposes-changing-debate-rules-11601594418 . Kamala Harris will likely pulverize Mike Pence, politely of course. The second presidential “debate”, a town hall, does not lend itself to interruption. One wonders how the third presidential debate will play out when this future becomes the recent past.

WSJ: 2020, year of the man-heel: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-2020-should-be-the-year-of-the-man-heel-11601546429. Ha! 2020 should be the year the Man-Heel is voted out.