News for May 30 — Vaccine Efficacy: Moving the Goalposts

Vaccine efficacy: moving the goalposts: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/vaccines-working-experts-cdc-report-breakthrough-cases-covid-19-182229206.html . Vaccine efficacy is a complex topic. However, the so-called expert opinion in this article is rewriting history and science. The purpose of a vaccine is to prevent disease acquisition, period.

Under this article’s definition (using hospitalization), since we believe 40% of COVID cases are asymptomatic, water would be (more than) 40% effective as a vaccine. Since only about 5% of symptomatic cases result in hospitalization, water is then 97% effective as a hospitalization vaccine. Gee, why did we even bother with shots?

Vaccination lotteries and other incentives: https://www.axios.com/states-incentives-prizes-coronavirus-vaccine-e76159cc-7e8b-4835-81f5-04bacd3d264d.html . Kudos on the illustration …

When can we stop wearing face masks?: https://www.aol.com/lifestyle/stop-wearing-face-masks-experts-145002207.html . This advice seems more lifestyle than scientific. Herd immunity from COVID is more likely 90% than 80%, especially as new variants continue to emerge. Short of making this a required school vaccination for the next 50 years, I don’t see how herd immunity is achievable. That said, every person vaccinated contributes to herd resistance, especially if booster shots are provided addressing the variants. The lottery entry concept has shown upticks in vaccinations in the states adopting it.

Moderna scientists warn of new variants: https://www.barrons.com/articles/at-modernas-science-day-focus-is-on-covid-variants-51622204258 .

India may have passed peak of latest COVID wave: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india/india-reports-152734-new-covid-19-infections-3128-deaths-idUSKCN2DC097 . Of course, India’s reporting problems are so serious that no one knows. India announces increased vaccine supplies for June: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/30/india-says-will-have-120m-vaccine-doses-for-local-use-in-june . These are still small numbers when your population is 1.4 billion.

South Africa returns to stricter lockdown: https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-africa-coronavirus-vaccine-coronavirus-pandemic-business-e877331e6fa1bc08b4145da2c66a58d8 .

Vietnam to strengthen lockdown, test all 9 million residents of the former Saigon: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-05-31/asia-today-vietnam-to-test-all-9m-residents-in-largest-city . As their testing capacity is 100,000 per day, the testing plan has a major issue. Still, they apparently understand the uses of testing better than we do.

Malaysia sees COVID surge, announces June lockdown: https://news.yahoo.com/malaysia-reports-9-020-coronavirus-072006197.html . These are relatively tiny case numbers, but note that part of the surge is attributed to variants. It would help to report that data, if any.

Deutsche Bank warned by Fed, again: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-warned-deutsche-bank-over-anti-money-laundering-backsliding-11622390670 . Apparently their idea of clean-up was to refuse to lend more money to Orange Julius.

Biden appointment confirmations lag: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-leads-predecessors-in-nominations-lags-in-confirmations-11622367002 . The bottom line is, Schumer needs to step it up. We need governance, which means we need federal officials in place.

Israeli centrists attempt to give Bebe a shot in the rump: https://www.wsj.com/articles/israels-bennett-plans-to-join-rival-to-form-government-in-blow-to-netanyahu-11622396812 . Something different is necessary after 4 indecisive elections. This could be an unexpected boost to the two-state solution.

And meanwhile on the Suez Canal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/egyptian-officials-accuse-ever-givens-captain-of-losing-control-of-ship-in-suez-canal-11622406701 . Hah, so you though WSJ had given up on this story? Me too. Egypt is arguing that the ship captain lost control of the ship. That seems like a difficult argument when the ship (and the Canal) was hit by a massive sandstorm. Somehow I feel the Journal will tell us what happens …

Nut round-up continues: https://www.yahoo.com/news/four-more-oath-keepers-indicted-015507753.html . Occam’s Razor tells us the fourth name was concealed because the person hasn’t been arrested yet. More: https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/556174-doj-adds-four-defendants-to-oath-keepers-conspiracy-case . Odds are Oath Keepers does not survive these prosecutions.