News for February 12 — Vaccine Diplomacy; California Variant Spreads

WSJ: Vaccine diplomacy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccines-are-becoming-important-diplomatic-currency-11613152854 .

California variant spreads: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-02-12/southern-california-is-origin-of-new-covid-19-variant .

Remote work gains favor: https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2021-02-12/majority-of-americans-work-remotely-a-year-into-coronavirus-pandemic-poll-finds .

New mothers need vaccination: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-02-12/new-moms-need-the-covid-vaccine . This is an interesting perspective, and I am sympathetic. However, I continue to believe “oldest first” is the most appropriate approach. Mortality is highly correlated with age.

Vaccinated patients appear less contagious: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-science/vaccinated-covid-19-patients-appear-less-contagious-arthritis-drug-in-spotlight-idUSKBN2AC2CZ . The arthritis drug Actemra (an anti-inflammatory) reduced COVID mortality by an estimated 14%. Some large bone marrow cells are showing up in the brains of deceased COVID patients. The cause of the cell migration is unknown.

WSJ: Massachusetts “vaccine buddy” access: https://www.wsj.com/articles/massachusetts-gives-covid-19-vaccine-to-people-helping-seniors-get-a-shot-11613144665 .

Apple watch produces early COVID diagnoses: https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/09/mount-sinai-study-finds-apple-watch-can-predict-covid-19-diagnosis-up-to-a-week-before-testing/ .

How B and T white blood cells fight the variants: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/02/antibody-evolution/618004/ Vaccines help train these white blood cells. They may then be able to adapt to fight the variants.

Virologist warns against re-openings now: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/reopening-indoor-dining-is-an-extraordinarily-reckless-and-premature-decision-virologist-says.html . I completely agree. More: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/12/reopening-indoor-dining-is-an-extraordinarily-reckless-and-premature-decision-virologist-says.html . But the Biden administration is cautious: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/12/biden-white-house-govenors-coronavirus-468787 .

Scientific American weekly COVID round-up: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coronavirus-news-roundup-february-6-february-12/ . Recall that I raised my estimated herd immunity target from 70% to 85% in December due to the UK variant. This article indicates scientists now estimate the target at 90%. This in turn means that it is becoming nearly impossible to reach herd immunity so long as there is significant vaccine skepticism. Our stupidity in initial control has led to a more serious long-term problem.

Prevention is effective national strategy: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/02/coronavirus-pandemic-bhutan/617976/ . No doubt the arrogance of the “hoax approach” is a big part of the American disaster. However, basic public health principles work with far less resources than the US has.

WSJ: We’re working to kill school kids: https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-schools-spread-covid-19-everything-you-need-to-know-11613170571 . Do these people read? The new variants are more transmissible and more deadly among women and children. If the CDC is right that the UK variant will be dominant in this country by March, this article is not only out of date, it’s dangerous. WSJ is so arrogant to title this crap “everything you need to know”. It is not.

WSJ: CDC urges school re-openings: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-presses-k-12-schools-to-reopen-11613156400 .

COVID hospitalizations hit 3 month low: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/538577-coronavirus-hospitalizations-hit-lowest-level-in-nearly-three-months . BUT: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/538607-daily-coronavirus-cases-tip-back-over-100000 .

Good mask fit offers 96% protection: https://www.sciencenews.org/article/double-mask-fit-reduce-coronavirus-exposure-covid-19-pandemic .

New CDC guidance on school re-openings did not involve White House: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-02-12/white-house-did-not-approve-new-cdc-guidance-on-reopening-schools .

NY nursing home COVID data controversy grows: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-new-york/cuomo-aide-apologizes-to-lawmakers-for-withholding-covid-19-death-toll-in-new-york-nursing-homes-idUSKBN2AC257 . Data manipulation is like COVID. It has become embedded in the population. More: https://apnews.com/article/new-york-andrew-cuomo-us-news-coronavirus-pandemic-nursing-homes-512cae0abb55a55f375b3192f2cdd6b5 .

Moderna, FDA consider more doses in each vial: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/12/moderna-fda-vaccine-doses-468884 .

California COVID container ship back-up: https://weather.com/health/coronavirus/video/french-nun-turns-117-after-beating-covid-19 . Understandable. Weird.

WSJ: CDC won’t require negative COVID test before domestic flights: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-testing-wont-be-required-before-domestic-flights-cdc-says-11613183533 . How about a vaccination for flights after August 1 for people over 18? The antivaxxers can drive or take the bus.

The stimulus timetable: https://www.businessinsider.com/stimulus-calendar-democratic-timeline-to-approve-biden-relief-package-2021-2 . The country desperately needs action on the stimulus before the expiration of unemployment benefits in mid-March. Fortunately, the Democrats have a plan for that.

The minimum wage fight continues: https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-democrats-to-craft-covid-19-relief-bill-with-minimum-wage-increase-11613168330 . As mentioned before, I don’t think this provision can survive the parliamentarian in reconciliation anyway.

AstraZeneca rethinks European supply chain: https://www.politico.eu/article/after-failing-to-deliver-astrazeneca-rethinks-eu-coronavirus-vaccine-supply-chain/ .

Ireland reverses spike: https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2021-02-12/majority-of-americans-work-remotely-a-year-into-coronavirus-pandemic-poll-finds . Apparently the Irish are comfortable drinking alone.

UK’s 2020 worst economic slump in over 300 years: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-economy-suffers-biggest-slump-in-300-years-amid-covid-19-lockdowns-11613118912 . That’s so long ago, the US had only had slavery for about 100 years.

WSJ: China withholds COVID data from WHO: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-refuses-to-give-who-raw-data-on-early-covid-19-cases-11613150580 .

Biden makes progress with China: https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-02-12/china-reveals-its-first-assessment-of-biden-as-president .

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Orange Julius faces squeeze: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-s-businesses-struggle-most-profitable-asset-his-real-estate-n1257456 . Because of the nature of property leverage, owners must have continuous cash flow to maintain their interests. This squeeze, together with alienated tenants, could literally wipe out Orange Julius’ assets given the struggle his other properties already face.

WSJ: January 6 timeline: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jan-6-2021-how-it-unfolded-11613047105 .

Update on Proud Boys/Boogaloo Bois insurrection arrests: https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-trump-capitol-arrests/five-charged-with-proud-boys-conspiracy-in-deadly-u-s-capitol-attack-idINKBN2AC269?edition-redirect=in . There are also details of the Oath Keepers’ training in advance of the insurrection. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-proud-boys-arrested-on-capitol-riot-conspiracy-charges-11613077752 .

Tensions within Trump legal team: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/02/12/moderna-fda-vaccine-doses-468884 . Michael van der Veen, a personal injury attorney, joins the team: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_van_der_Veen . It doesn’t go well: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/538684-sanders-spars-with-trump-attorney-during-trial-qa .

WSJ: Day 4 summary: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-impeachment-trial-takeaways-from-the-fourth-day-11613182431 .

Defense by name-calling: https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-impeachment-trial-day-four-defense-to-set-out-case-11613125807 . This defense’s basis is political and not legal. However, the style certainly fits the client.

The censure alternative: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/538627-no-2-gop-senator-suggests-hes-open-to-censuring-trump .

Today’s nose-count: It still looks like Democrats will pick up around 7 Republican votes, in my view a significant but inadequate accomplishment. The Democrats have made a powerful case which was mostly ignored by the defense. The Republicans have kept this as a political decision, and their Senators continue to adhere to Orange Julius. The lawyers and most of the others know better. Any surprise would come from McConnell.

One other long shot occurred to me today. The moderate Republicans signaled that they would like to hear witnesses. The Democrats appear to want to wrap this up, but calling witnesses could be appealing. They could call people in the White House who saw Orange Julius delight in the insurrection. They could call Kevin McCarthy, who pleaded with Orange Julius to call off the mob. A long shot for sure, but documenting this repulsive behavior could turn the tide.

Update: In regard to Kevin McCarthy, the timing of this story may not be an accident: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/538714-trump-told-mccarthy-that-rioters-more-upset-about-the-election-than-you-are .

Fox hosts look to wriggle out of defamation lawsuit: https://www.wsj.com/articles/foxs-dobbs-bartiromo-and-pirro-ask-court-to-dismiss-defamation-suit-11613150728 . The problem is these assertions were made with no evidence. Orange Julius’ assertions were (obviously) not trustworthy. Free speech is broad but not unlimited. Perhaps Fox will disclose why they cancelled Dobbs, their highest-rated show, soon after the suit was filed.

WSJ: Georgia to investigate New Georgia Project: https://www.wsj.com/articles/georgia-investigates-warnock-led-group-over-2019-voter-registration-efforts-11613155906 . I don’t really see a problem here. NGP registered many thousands of voters before the election, so these 1,200 would be a very small part of their activities.

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The now-viral “cat attorney”: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/salvadorhernandez/cat-lawyer-zoom-court .

WSJ: Rose prose for Valentine’s Day: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-roses-came-to-mean-true-love-11613192460 . So was there hidden meaning in the War of the Roses? By the way, that war eliminated the male lines of both families. This is not too helpful for a hereditary monarchy.