Vaccination target: https://news.yahoo.com/around-65-75-of-the-population-needs-to-take-a-90-effective-coronavirus-vaccine-johns-hopkins-expert-says-185102526.html . This gentleman is certainly an expert. I respectfully disagree with what he is saying. Yes, herd immunity is complex. The key, however, IS the infectiousness of the virus. COVID-19 is highly infectious. As a reference point (which the doctor presumably knows), measles herd immunity is achieved at 96% or higher immunization rates: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5544919/ . The standard 2 dose MMR regimen is 97% effective, so vaccine effectiveness is not an issue in this discussion: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html .
From what we know so far about COVID-19, 70% is likely too low a vaccination target for herd immunity – and we do not know enough to know for sure. Furthermore, a major pathway is asymptomatic transmission. Behaviors are important, but clearly the population is experiencing pandemic fatigue and compliance is diminishing. Even if Dr. Garibaldi was technically correct, this is the wrong message to send to the public under the present circumstances.
Dr. Fauci hails Moderna vaccine: https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-fauci-vaccine-moderna-20201116-54xyqbxwqjd6vbzdwbokfl7w4m-story.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/moderna-says-its-covid-19-vaccine-was-94-5-effective-in-latest-trial-11605528008 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/modernas-coronavirus-vaccine-breakthrough-has-shareholders-smiling-11605535376 .
WSJ: COVID baby bust: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-covid-baby-bust-is-bad-news-for-these-businesses-11605522600 . Healthcare repercussions just keep on comin’.
WSJ: Hey, the rich have stopped cheating, right?: https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-fauci-vaccine-moderna-20201116-54xyqbxwqjd6vbzdwbokfl7w4m-story.html . Well, before it was USC, but now it’s just Harvard, right? Sports don’t count at Harvard, right?
Latest surge overwhelming hospitals: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hospitals-overrun-as-u-s-reports-1-million-cases-in-a-week/ . The hoax comments are just bizarre. “Divorced from reality” doesn’t capture what’s going on here.
The election was not stolen: https://news.yahoo.com/the-2020-election-wasnt-stolen-here-are-all-the-facts-that-prove-it-184623754.html . Here’s a long article attempting to debunk the main election conspiracy theories on the Internet. Good luck with that. I placed this after the previous article for a reason.
WSJ: Alzheimer’s prevalence tied to location, socio-economic situation: https://www.wsj.com/articles/alzheimers-research-looks-at-hot-spots-across-the-u-s-11605558173 . This is a very serious disease, and the following comment is not intended as flip in any way. The map shown looks like political maps we have been viewing this year. Yes, Trump voters typically have lower economic and educational attainment. But the highlighted area in South Florida is exactly the area where Trump overperformed in that state.
Atlas shrugged off by Stanford: https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/16/politics/atlas-stanford-coronavirus-michigan/index.html .
WSJ: Working abroad is the new working at home: https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-many-in-the-west-working-from-abroad-is-the-new-working-from-home-11605527990 . Yes, but the hours can be murder.
WSJ: China’s economy continues to recover: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-economy-gathers-steam-setting-stage-for-a-strong-end-to-the-year-11605506091 . First, control the virus …
The Devil went down to Georgia: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republicans-sound-alarm-on-georgia-senate-runoffs-as-they-privately-weigh-trumps-influence/ar-BB1b4snc?li=BBnb7Kz . Frankly, both sides are freaking out about Georgia. And here’s another in-person voting situation as the pandemic rages and we enter the holidays.
Will the Senate stick the Fed with Judy Shelton?: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-third-gop-senator-comes-out-against-trumps-fed-nominee-putting-confirmation-vote-on-knifes-edge/ar-BB1b4buM?li=BBnb7Kz . Things are getting tighter. One wonders if the two Georgia senators running for re-election want to vote on this nomination. Thune seems to admit the votes are not fully locked down yet. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/judy-shelton-faces-more-gop-opposition-for-fed-nomination-setting-up-close-vote-11605563485 .
WSJ: Congressional COVID-19 infection scorecard: https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-lawmakers-fall-ill-amid-covid-19-resurgence-11605569451 .
Biden drawing senior campaigners into administration: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/ap-sources-richmond-to-join-biden-west-wing-leave-congress-joe-biden-richmond-democrats-seat-white-house-b1723984.html (link replaced 12/17/20). This seems wise. The next 4 years will be a campaign to reverse attitudes entrenched in the last 4. It absolutely will be a battle for the soul of the nation.
WSJ: Obama on Biden: https://www.wsj.com/articles/obamas-new-book-describes-bidens-lack-of-a-filter-and-his-strengths-11605544041 .
WSJ: Biden, virus, transmission: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-meet-with-labor-leaders-corporate-chiefs-to-discuss-economic-recovery-11605548938 . Person, woman, man, camera, tv: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Person,_woman,_man,_camera,_TV .
The non-transition: mixed nuts: https://www.yahoo.com/now/rage-tweets-and-tv-a-vision-of-a-trump-postpresidency-begins-to-emerge-170229142.html . Once again, Trump’s focus is on himself and the media, certainly not governance.
WSJ: Hey, how could Trump make the world even less secure?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-drawing-up-plans-to-withdraw-troops-from-iraq-afghanistan-in-coming-weeks-11605557691 . Ok, that answers that.
Another shake-up on Trump legal team: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/16/trump-campaign-legal-shake-up-436924 . Even the real circuses were not this disorganized in bankruptcy. Reminds one of the White House staff over the last 4 years.
A little election math: Trump beat Hillary 306-232 in electoral votes, which he described as the greatest landslide ever [not true by a long shot (a nice double entendre)]. Biden beat Trump by 306-232 (God is rubbing it in), which is a swing of 74 electoral votes. They are Pennsylvania (20, by 67,000 votes), Michigan (16, by 146,000), Georgia (16, by 1,400), Arizona (11, by 11,000), Wisconsin (10, by 21,000) and Nebraska’s second Congressional District (1, Omaha, by 22,000). [Biden also held Nevada (6, by 34,000)]. Nebraska Republicans want to revert to winner-take-all: https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/nebraska-electoral-college/ .
You can see that Biden flipped 13.75% of the electoral votes (74/538) by a total of 268,000 votes out of 152 million cast nationwide – 0.176%. That is a leverage factor of 78.1 (13.75/0.176). In case there is math conversation at your socially distanced Thanksgiving (or Zoom call), now you’ve got some details about how far out of whack our system is from representative democracy.
There are two central reasons for this result. The first is that the Electoral College system is winner-take-all, state by state (except for Nebraska and Maine, which apportion votes by Congressional district). The second is that the Electoral College itself is not a democratic system. The 538 votes represent the 435 members of the House of Representatives, the 100 members of the Senate and the 3 members these bodies would have if DC was a state.
There is no particular problem with the 435 House-related votes, as the House is apportioned primarily by population, except that each state gets a minimum of one seat. The Senate, however, is 2 seats per state, regardless of population. As Wyoming currently has a population of 563,000, while California’s population is 39.8 million, the resulting leverage factor is 70.7.
That both leverage factors are in the 70’s is something of a coincidence. In the worst election factor historically, the 2000 election was decided by 537 votes in Florida (or more accurately, by 1 vote in the Supreme Court). The Senate factor, however, is institutional. It is the direct and central result of balancing power between the slave and free states. That is why the Constitution has Article 5. The Senate’s composition is the only provision which cannot be changed by the standard (if quite difficult) Constitutional amendment process. For the Senate’s composition to change, every state must agree.
The free states were more urban than the slave states, but nothing like today’s differential. The Senate has become progressively less democratic over time. It has morphed from a free/slave disparity to an urban/rural disparity.
P.S. The October 31 newsletter apparently did not mail out due to a timing problem. It’s on the website, of course, and there’s an interesting article on COVID-19 brain aging (appropriate for Halloween!).