US “herd immunity” unattainable: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/reaching-herd-immunity-is-unlikely-in-the-us-experts-now-believe (link replaced 5/27/21). Finally, a more realistic view of COVID emerges. As we’ve said from early on, the only virus ever eliminated from the global population is smallpox. Uniquely, smallpox had no reservoir in the animal population. As the article notes, variants of coronavirus have emerged which are more transmissible and more deadly than the original strain. We estimate herd immunity at 90%, which won’t be reached at least until political and anti-vax sentiment recedes.
WSJ: Updated guide to the Indian variant B.1.617: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-indias-double-mutant-covid-19-variant-11619193481 .
CVS, Walgreens have wasted 120,000 vaccine doses: https://khn.org/news/article/cvs-and-walgreens-have-wasted-more-vaccine-doses-than-most-states-combined/ . The state data in this report does not include data from 15 states, including large states like California, Ohio and Michigan. Still, it appears states have wasted less numbers of doses while vaccinating many more people.
FDA expected to grant EUA to Pfizer vaccine for teens age 12 to 15 by next week: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-business-coronavirus-vaccine-health-government-and-politics-cf218f1f24fdccd4e06c024b0a869d20 . This means all high school age children can be vaccinated before the start of the next school year.
WSJ: COVID vaccines may be pills or nasal sprays in the future: https://www.wsj.com/articles/next-generation-of-covid-19-vaccines-could-be-pill-or-spray-11620034381 .
Moderna to supply 500 million vaccine doses to COVAX: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-05-03/moderna-agrees-to-supply-covax-with-half-a-billion-coronavirus-vaccines . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/moderna-to-deliver-covid-19-vaccine-to-hard-hit-developing-world-11620037924 . Note that deliveries will begin in the fourth quarter of 2021 (34 million) with the remainder in 2022. The pandemic is not ending anytime soon.
WSJ: The vaccination push: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccinations-are-slowing-so-officials-target-markets-schools-11620044791 .
WSJ: NY, NJ to drop COVID restrictions: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-new-jersey-lift-covid-19-capacity-limits-on-businesses-11620070944 .
NJ program offers a free beer to those getting vaccinated in May: https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2021/05/12-nj-breweries-offer-free-beer-to-those-who-get-covid-vaccine-shots-this-month.html . So, this would be getting a beer chaser for your shot.
Vaccine refusers lack social responsibility: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/05/coronavirus-challenge-vaccine-refusers.html . Closing sentence: “A nation of Anthony Faucis is trapped in a nation of Jim Jordans.” Congratulations, Jim, you’ve won the lifetime achievement award from A**hole Nation.
Polling and strategies concerning vaccine hesitancy: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-vaccine-hesitancy-polling-d6c0044f-a339-45aa-afcf-66f0f26a2ab0.html .
WSJ: US still sucks at testing: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-covid-19-testing-moves-center-stage-u-s-and-u-k-approaches-differ-11620036971 .
WSJ: Effects of deferred care: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-consequences-of-skipping-doctor-appointments-during-the-covid-pandemic-11620067142 .
Feds shut down vaccine website scam: https://abcnews.go.com/US/phony-coronavirus-vaccine-site-shut-federal-agents/story?id=77473994 . The website was designed to steal personal information.
WSJ: Blue Cross drops rule limiting members’ non-Blue Cross income: https://www.wsj.com/articles/blue-health-insurers-drop-revenue-rule-that-limited-competition-11620069526 . This change reflects last year’s settlement of antitrust charges.
WSJ: Verizon sells Yahoo: https://www.wsj.com/articles/apollo-buys-yahoo-aol-from-verizon-for-5-billion-11620044945 .
We don’t know how bad things are in India: https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2021-05-03/indias-catastrophic-coronavirus-surge-highlights-global-vulnerabilities . The guesstimates in this article are all over the map. Let’s explore the math a bit. The article indicates that India’s reported infections need to be multiplied by 20 or more to get the true daily infections. Since recent daily totals are around 400,000, daily infections would be 8 million or more (!!). The link indicates IHME published this estimate on April 23, when reported cases were noticeably lower. Adjusting the multiplier to 15 still gives us 6 million new infections daily (!!).
Turning to deaths, the latest estimate made here of the US mortality rate is around 0.67% for the US. To adjust this rate for India, we must consider that (1) the population is noticeably younger; (2) the health system is fragile and being overrun; and (3) people are dying from a lack of oxygen and inability to get a hospital bed. With all this in mind, the mortality rate must be at least 0.5%. Applied to 6 million daily infections, mortality would be around 30,000 a day (with about a 10 day lag). The government is reporting around 3,700 daily deaths. An informed guess would be 10,000 per day.
As you can see, we do not have adequate data to understand the situation in India. My purpose in laying out the above exercise is to give each reader an outside opinion on how the limited data might be resolved.
More on India’s current situation: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/3/india-covid-cases-soar-as-oxygen-vaccine-shortages-continue .
WSJ: More on the US ban on travel from India: https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-india-travel-ban-11619821456 .
How you can help India: https://abcnews.go.com/International/india-amid-covid-19-surge-devastating-country/story?id=77322355 . Non-governmental charity can still make a meaningful difference in the constant cycle of natural and manmade disasters. UK efforts expand: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/uk-rushes-increase-aid-indias-health-care-system-77451303 .
WSJ: Brazil’s Sputnik rejection: https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazil-health-authority-doubts-efficacy-level-of-russias-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine-11620064520 .
US under pressure to define its vaccine diplomacy: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/03/biden-vaccines-ukraine-diplomacy-485261 . The vaccine supply is growing, but nowhere near the world’s requests.
WSJ: An updated guide to Brexit: https://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-uk-eu-deal-11605820920 .
WSJ: We’re confused about politics and economic policy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidenomics-takes-root-in-europes-economically-fragile-south-11620039617 . The Journal needs to face up to actual facts: Biden has proposed spending increases with corresponding tax increases. His overall budget deficit will be no worse than Orange Julius, who blew it up with his pay-the-rich tax cut. The situation in Southern Europe is entirely different. Your “Bidenomics” comment is somewhere between non-analysis and slur. So it’s perfect for your editorial page but should not be masquerading as news.
Canadian “Proud Boys” disbands: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/canadian-chapter-of-the-proud-boys-designated-a-terrorist-group-by-the-government-says-it-has-dissolved/ar-BB1gjzea?li=BBnb7Kz . Designation as a terrorist organization is not a good thing. The government is not going to shred their files on these losers. And who would become a Proud Boys “poser”?
Mitch McConnell wants to sanitize American history: https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2021/05/03/mitch-mcconnell-says-1619-not-important-point-american-history/4924323001/ . Mitch wants to focus on cultural wars as a winning Republican strategy because the GOP has no policy other than anger. Please leave the Senate. You are in the way of truth, justice and the American way.
Kansas’ Kris Kobach (KKK) conundrum: https://theweek.com/articles/980678/kris-kobach-wins-losing-elections . This article has a gem of a link on Kris Koback: a judge ordered him into remedial legal education after his performance in a federal lawsuit: https://theweek.com/articles/980678/kris-kobach-wins-losing-elections . That is unheard of. Now this schmuck runs for Attorney General? Ego over reality.
Yes, Tim, South Carolina is racist: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/may/03/south-carolina-restaurant-manager-black-man-enslaved-double-restitution-court . The manager is undoubtedly part of the 20% of Orange Julius voters mentioned yesterday. There’s no reason to spend more time on Tim Scott’s silliness, now that we have an actual modern enslavement of a black South Carolina citizen.
At least one conservative rethinks booing Mitt Romney: https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2021/5/3/22417237/booing-mitt-romney-is-an-embarrassment-utah-gop-convention-republican . I mostly agree with this writer’s viewpoint. However, everyone should be encouraged to boo Ted Cruz. Mitt Romney, at some level, has some authenticity. No one can make that argument for Flyin’ Ted. And to rephrase the writer’s comment, “Flyin’” rhymes with “Lyin’” – it’s Ted’s history.
Liz Cheney sticks to her guns: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/03/liz-cheney-donald-trump-gop-feud-485215 . So is this the Alamo, or is the Republican tent big enough for the former Vice President’s daughter? Maybe not so big: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-single-most-damning-quote-about-the-state-of-the-gop/ar-BB1gknfL?li=BBnb7Kz .
Kevin McCarthy is apparently moving against Cheney: https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tom-friedman-says-kevin-mccarthy-is-willing-to-prostitute-himself-to-soulless-trump-to-become-speaker/ . McCarthy has repeatedly demonstrated remarkable inability. He is also a spineless bastard. And now a three-time Pulitzer Prize winner is calling him a prostitute. The question is how much pain our democracy must endure before it survives this loser. (sb, 11/6)
Manchin on the insurrection: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/551412-manchin-when-protesters-first-entered-capitol-my-intention-was-to-stay-and . So, “stay and fight” would represent a severe lack of judgment. But then he says the insurrection entrenched his views on the filibuster? For someone playing the role of centrist, there is something considerably off-center here. Maybe it’s just theater for the folks back home, but it doesn’t make logical sense.
More on the Giuliani-FBI story retraction: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/how-three-major-news-organizations-all-got-a-story-about-rudy-giuliani-wrong/ar-BB1gkiZd?li=BBnb7Kz . Yes, it was a problem with a trusted source giving false information. But this could still be a set-up by the Rude Dude. Notice that he did not reply to a request for comment before the newspapers’ deadlines.
NY Times reporter Bret Stephens definitely does not care for Flyin’ Ted: https://thehill.com/homenews/media/551526-brett-stephens-says-ted-cruz-more-unctuous-than-eddie-haskell . Wow. This is like an update of the Cyrano de Bergerac insult monologue. Or maybe Chevy Chase commenting on his Scrooge boss in National Lampoon’s “Christmas Vacation”.