US COVID recovery in jeopardy: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/05/us-covid-recovery-global-vaccine-testing-wto . The point is quite simple. You must reduce global viral load to reduce the risk of more mutations. These folks are focused on the vaccine protocols. But we must also empower the delivery systems globally to get the vaccines in people’s arms. Millions of doses have gone to waste because of delivery system failures. As readers know, we’ve been making these simple points for a long, long time.
China implements COVID travel restrictions: https://apnews.com/article/health-travel-china-shanghai-68bcb22dbec05319f5eb6d1634f14d8e . Readers know the drill. Zero COVID is not sustainable long-term. But Chairman Xi must save face. So we cripple our lives and the economy in his service. By the way, Orange Julius is envious.
Insights on Medicare Advantage: https://www.kff.org/medicare/press-release/medicare-advantage-is-close-to-becoming-the-predominant-way-that-medicare-beneficiaries-get-their-health-coverage-and-care/ . Kaiser Family Foundation’s latest take on Medicare Advantage gives some useful information. However, while KFF describes itself as an independent nonprofit, their description does not tell the whole story. Kaiser, as an HMO, provides MA plans. In my view, the move toward Medicare Advantage reflects two factors: (1) the typically higher cost of traditional Medicare plus a Medigap Supplement Plan; and (2) aggressive marketing of MA plans, where agents can earn a commission.
You do give things up by moving to MA, most importantly going into a network and thus losing control over your selection of health care providers. As mentioned in the past, Portland’s best cancer provider is in one network and its best heart provider in another. For this reason among others, I would never join an MA plan.
Health care burnout continues: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-10-05/tackling-health-care-burnout . As noted previously, this will create inflationary pressure on health care costs in the US (and globally) for several years to come, since labor contracts will be renegotiated as they expire.
WSJ: Nobel Prize for click chemistry: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nobel-prize-awarded-to-three-scientists-for-development-of-click-chemistry-11664964507 .
The red state murder problem: https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-red-state-murder-problem . This article is beginning to get more play now because the GOP is looking to pin “soft on crime” labels on the Democrats. Overall crime rates have been in decline for some time. However, the highest rates of murder per capita are in the South.
These 10 states do not correlate significantly with gun ownership, with only 3 also in the top 10 for gun ownership per capita: Alabama, Arkansas and Mississippi: https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/gun-ownership-by-state . However, there is a very powerful correlation as 9 of the 10 are among the lowest 15 states in high school rate of graduation (only Missouri escapes): https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/educational-attainment-by-state . This is one of the most powerful arguments for investing in basic education I’ve seen in quite a while, and am glad to have found and documented it here.
Also, note that the correlation is even stronger when we note that three of the states in the bottom 15 (California, Texas and New York) have the three highest levels of immigrants, depressing their levels of high school graduation: https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/states-with-the-most-immigrants . So 9 of the 12 remaining states have among the 10 highest US state murder rates.
And lastly, we know in recent years GOP voters have a significantly lower level of educational attainment than do Democrats: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/gop-faces-massive-realignment-it-sheds-college-educated-voters-n1264425 . The GOP should look inward rather than outward in addressing the problem of crime. But of course, for the current GOP, facts and reason don’t matter. Their sole goal is to weaponize conversation, limiting the opportunities for their base to learn anything.
WSJ: Fifth Circuit rules against DACA: https://www.wsj.com/articles/appeals-court-rules-against-daca-immigration-program-11665008102 . However, current Dreamers retain access to the program
The problems with Zelle: https://www.warren.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/ZELLE%20REPORT%20OCTOBER%202022.pdf . If you have heard of Elizabeth’s Warren report on Zelle’s failure to reimburse people who lose money through Zelle, here it is.
WSJ: Musk struggles to close Twitter deal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-and-twitter-discussed-price-cut-to-44-billion-takeover-in-recent-weeks-11665017788 . Uh-huh. Write the check. More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-twitter-reversal-elon-musk-is-renewing-takeover-of-company-hit-by-economy-his-attacks-11664986722 . And, do the deal or go to trial: https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-buy-twitter-deal-11665009271 .
Small global trade increase for 2023: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-health-covid-global-trade-prices-280c9b97d2ce36e478860b2441252689 . We continue to believe a global recession is a certainty. More: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-10-05/euro-zone-unlikely-to-avoid-recession-as-downturn-deepens-pmi . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/sharp-slowdown-in-global-trade-points-to-possible-recession-lower-inflation-11664964002 .
WSJ: UK businesses closing doors: https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-consumer-pessimism-push-u-k-firms-to-close-their-doors-11664962202 . How does this article fail to mention Brexit as a major factor in trade uncertainty?
OPEC+ cuts oil production to raise prices: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-inflation-health-germany-elections-d873521f8b165774de3902439dd5a6ee . Obviously, this is inflationary. Is one reason for weak demand that Russian oil is moving in large quantities to China? WSJ: We think this could backfire: https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-brinkmanship-could-backfire-11664996069 . How? Everyone agrees they win in the short term. But the West is unlikely to further accelerate its switch to clean energy sources based on this pricing decision. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-agrees-to-biggest-oil-production-cut-since-start-of-pandemic-11664978144 .
WSJ: Russia resumes gas deliveries to Italy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-resumes-gas-deliveries-to-italy-11664969957 . Uh-huh. Does this have anything to do with the new, far-right Italian government?
Record Dutch inflation: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-10-06/dutch-inflation-rises-again-in-september . Dear US stock market: The flood of economic information says the Fed must continue to raise rates. Get a clue …
WSJ: Opportunities in “cat bonds”: https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-rates-could-help-reinsurers-better-price-climate-risk-11664991563 . Seriously, is this guy completely nuts? Yes, catastrophe bonds will become more expensive. But global warming is causing so-called 500-year events to occur with increasing (and unpredictable) frequency. New entrants into this market have an excellent chance of getting clobbered. The comment “insurance is about pricing risk, not avoiding it” may be true in Introduction to Insurance, but successful insurance companies absolutely avoid risk.
Putin’s bad month continues: https://news.yahoo.com/putin-ukraine-russia-war-losing-regions-annexed-143855287.html . Russia has no answer to Ukraine’s superior Western materiel. WSJ: Or even their own materiel: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-new-offensive-is-fueled-by-captured-russian-weapons-11664965264 .
WSJ: Russia deploys Iranian suicide drones: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-uses-iranian-made-drones-to-strike-deep-inside-ukraine-11664965580 .
Did Ukraine kill Dugina?: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/6/us-intelligence-says-ukrainians-behind-dugina-killing-report . Why did US intelligence leak this opinion at this time? Are they trying to show the Ukrainian government is not monolithic? Why? WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-believes-ukraine-was-behind-assassination-of-putin-allys-daughter-11665014553 .
Insurance fraud in Florida: https://theconversation.com/the-big-reason-florida-insurance-companies-are-failing-isnt-just-hurricane-risk-its-fraud-and-lawsuits-191860 .
DeMentis’ migrant flight recruiter identified: https://apnews.com/article/texas-tampa-florida-immigration-429ef38f54fa9c6b6aef96e43ff8c035 . Turns out Perla is a former Army counterintelligence agent living in Tampa. She is apparently not that bright, as she gave her real first name to the migrants. Well, also she’s a DeMentis supporter. Again, not that bright. The details of DeMentis’ contractors should now come out, as the article mentions a Venezuelan migrant working with Perla.
Postponed January 6 hearing is now tentatively rescheduled for next Thursday, October 13. We await a public announcement from the committee.
Georgia GOP bankrolling lawyers in fake elector scheme: https://news.yahoo.com/georgia-da-gop-bankrolling-lawyers-for-fake-trump-electors-rife-with-serious-ethical-problems-191434263.html . Note that the DA’s filing reflects a comment by the judge about conflict of interest issues here. These lawyers are in serious trouble.
Misreading the latest special master ruling: https://www.axios.com/2022/10/05/special-master-mar-a-lago-appeals-court . The order to expedite the hearing is indeed a victory for DOJ, but it relates only to the timing of the hearing – in other words, it is a process order. The timing is not that expedited – briefs are not due for 6 weeks. More interesting to me is that the order was made “in consultation with the Chief Justice”. Why was that?
The 11th Circuit has already sided with DOJ on the prior appeal, slapping down Judge Cannon. Are sterner measures against the judge’s rulings in play (Judge Cannon’s rulings are widely viewed as inappropriately favoring Orange Julius)? Meanwhile, the OJ filing was bizarre. DOJ is saying there is a need for speed to investigate misuse of national intelligence. How could OJ’s lawyers possibly say that the DOJ “cannot possibly articulate any real risk” of delay? They already have. Again, are sterner measures against the judge’s rulings in play?
The timing suggests the special master may be able to complete his review by the time of submission of the briefs. I would think Judge Dearie reads all this as further incentive to complete his work quickly.
The Oath Keepers’ chilling planning: https://www.yahoo.com/now/must-defeat-them-stewart-rhodes-225957087.html . For the insurrectionists, OJ’s loss was a foregone conclusion which allowed them to launch plans to overthrow the election and the government. They certainly didn’t wait for a final count.
Texas judge reverses course, orders Texas AG to testify next week: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/texas-ag-paxton-ordered-testify-fleeing-home-avoid-subpoena-abortion-c-rcna49264 . Holy crap! We all know Rule No. 1 is, Don’t piss off the judge. The only explanation I can see for how long Ken Paxton has survived as AG is that his predecessor was Greg Abbott, whose Solicitor General was Ted Cruz. Apparently being a complete ass is Texas’ idea of a state’s attorney.
Justice Jackson goes to the Supreme Court: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/justice-jackson-makes-waves-first-supreme-court-arguments-rcna50707 . Lawrence Hurley is obviously a fan (as am I) and does a nice job of praising Justice Jackson’s impressive start. However (there’s always a however, right?), I’m a bit troubled by the choice of those commenting – three (distinguished) black woman. Justice Jackson is smart. It would be a travesty if she ends up in the box of “smart black woman”. The real test will be whether she can persuade. Will the court be soldered into 6-3 blocks, or can Justice Jackson help produce some 5-4’s?
Beyond that, we must wait until 1 or more of the 6 leave while a Democratic president is in office. In that sense (and only in that sense) it was a good thing that Clarence Thomas did not die or step aside during OJ’s presidency.
Portland Thorns fire two execs after Yates report: https://sports.yahoo.com/portland-timbers-thorns-gavin-wilkinson-mike-golub-yates-report-abuse-paul-riley-merritt-paulson-174445756.html . The question now is the fate of owner Merritt Paulson, who also owns the Portland Timbers. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/portland-thorns-nwsl-soccer-mls-portland-timbers-11664996849 .
Judge’s homer: Baseball’s lottery: https://sports.yahoo.com/aaron-judge-home-run-record-fan-leaps-out-of-stands-for-historic-ball-to-no-avail-013054322.html . The aftermath of Judge’s record-breaking home run relates to 2 fans. Seats in the first row of the bleachers have sold at premium prices as Judge neared the record. With the homer balls potentially selling at $1 million or more, your odds of winning are quite a bit better than the state-run lotteries. The guy who caught this ball, the 62nd, may be looking at $2 million. The value may depend on whether Judge hits more homers in the regular season.
So this clip shows another lottery player taking a calculated risk. If the homer did not make the stands, jumping into the pit would have been the inside track to the ball. But the ball did make the stands. Fortunately, the fan was not injured, but he was escorted from the stadium for trespassing.
Meanwhile, like the 61st homer, the ball was caught by a guy married to a female sports reporter: https://sports.yahoo.com/ex-bachelor-contestant-sports-illustrated-reporter-congratulates-husband-on-snagging-aaron-judges-home-run-ball-024707181.html . The article asks, What are the odds? They are not that high if you consider the small number of people who paid a premium price for first-row bleachers tickets. Planning is involved in order to raise your odds in this lottery. These guys had motivated wives …
Aaron Judge is not in the line-up for today’s Game 162! Good grief … I understand the business decision, but not only is the home run record out there, Judge is just percentage points in batting from winning the Triple Crown (homers, RBIs and batting average). We now go to wild card games this weekend. As the Yankees are seeded #2 in the AL, we won’t see them again until next Tuesday.
WSJ: Co-founder of Ronald McDonald Houses, Audrey Evans, passes at 97: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cancer-researcher-audrey-evans-co-founded-ronald-mcdonald-house-11664978205 .