Updated COVID boosters enhance protection: https://apnews.com/article/pfizer-updated-covid-booster-study-60a6bee38a4994794206701aa4701992 . The increase in antibody levels is impressive. But as we know, antibody levels are only a rough measure of the immune system.
US flu hospitalizations surge: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-11-04/u-s-flu-hospitalizations-highest-in-10-years-cdc-says . More: https://apnews.com/article/science-health-pandemics-covid-flu-7c784678637e51d4a8508f5dde70cded . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/doctors-flu-season-advice-get-your-flu-shot-soon-11663672855 .
US hospitals benefitted from pandemic: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospitals-say-theyre-still-ailing-from-covid-19-their-investors-feel-better-11667554213 .
WSJ: Cardinal Health is on drugs: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cardinal-health-cah-q3-earnings-report-2022-11667566568 . That is, gains in Cardinal’s pharmaceutical business offset contraction in its medical segment.
More suggestions that China will ease Zero COVID: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-11-04/china-to-make-substantial-changes-to-covid-policy-soon-former-govt-expert . However: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-11-04/chinas-covid-policies-are-consistent-and-clear-china-foreign-ministry .
WSJ: Actually, we don’t understand how to use data: https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-it-comes-to-data-sometimes-less-is-more-11667554203 . Those of us who read this rag every day know that. The key quote in the article from their so-called expert: “In an ideal world with an ideal person or algorithm processing the data, more data is better.” Really? Who is surprised by that baseline? The standard has to be, collect as much data as is reasonably available, and determine how to interpret it properly. If you don’t know how to interpret it properly, that problem is on you.
The examples given in the article of simple rules producing better results than complex algorithms just prove the poor design of the complex algorithms. Those examples (and specifically, the efficacy of a simple rule) are only produced by looking backward, whereas the task of data analysis is typically to look forward. The experts in this article apparently do not interpret data on a regular basis and are not held to the results of their analysis. People who do this all the time (like actuaries) realize how utterly misguided these experts are.
Simple rule: Be skeptical of anyone named Jerker (what kind of a first name is that, anyway?). This simple rule works because (a) this person has likely been teased mercilessly, and had a tough life; and (b) the Journal decided to rely on him, almost always a bad sign.
US jobs market remains unexpectedly strong: https://news.yahoo.com/october-jobs-report-november-4-2022-202231255.html . Again, I’m still looking at a Fed rate hike of 50 or 75 basis points in December. This data moves the arrow toward 75. Next month’s report will be a critical deciding factor. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-11-04-2022-11667559168 .
WSJ: The Fed on inflation risks: https://www.wsj.com/articles/elevated-inflation-presents-risk-to-u-s-economy-fed-report-finds-11667592082 .
Meanwhile, weekly unemployment claims drifted downward, also beating forecasts: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4553128-weekly-unemployment-claims-down-1k-beats-forecast .
Expert agrees 6% interest rate might be needed to beat inflation: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/harvard-economist-kenneth-rogoff-says-114255775.html . This matches the target we’ve predicted for Fed action. But Rogoff believes the Fed will back off well before then. I may be the only person who takes Powell seriously. However, the Fed’s refusal to back off has regularly surprised the market. In my view, there is a serious risk of stagflation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation . Powell’s fixation on beating inflation and willingness to have a recession to do it means to me that he sees the same risk.
Bond market priced for a peak Fed rate hike to 5.25%: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/investors-bet-the-fed-will-raise-rates-to-5-25-by-mid-2023-as-strong-jobs-report-fuels-views-for-more-aggressive-policy/ar-AA13K596?cvid=71937675ee39406d889d6f57155170b5 .
Treasury explores debt buyback over market liquidity concerns: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-warns-of-low-market-liquidity-in-24-trillion-treasury-market-in-latest-financial-stability-report/ar-AA13KP3C?cvid=b5960c69574e46ea9d19fa24cf224ed2 . Okay, but the economists’ explanation does not hold water: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-not-qe-or-qt-this-is-none-of-those-why-the-u-s-treasury-is-exploring-debt-buybacks-11665775104?mod=article_inline . Sorry, but the economic impact is identical to quantitative easing. When the federal government buys back debt, it supports the bond market, and it makes no difference which federal agency buys it. Now, the Treasury is just at the discussion stage, so we don’t know the size or timing of the purchases, but that is a matter of degree. The additional question would be the extent to which the Fed then reissues new debt to replace the repurchased bet.
Democrats consider raising debt ceiling in lame duck Congress if GOP retakes House or Senate: https://www.yahoo.com/news/toxic-brinkmanship-democrats-brace-for-debt-ceiling-fight-if-gop-retakes-control-of-congress-194205556.html . The debt ceiling issue is interactive with the reissuing of Treasury debt discussed in the prior paragraph.
US sending upgraded Czech tanks to Ukraine: https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2022/11/tanks-headed-ukraine/379366/ . Note that the Russians also use T-72 tanks. The US upgrades send a strong message that the Ukrainians will have the most advanced armor on the battlefield. Per earlier comments here, these tanks are likely headed to southern Ukraine in the near term, due to the onset of winter.
WSJ: The difficulties in taking Kherson: https://www.wsj.com/articles/signs-of-russian-retreat-dont-mean-ukraines-fight-for-kherson-will-be-easy-11667578502 . The problem with those dug-in troops is that Russian supply lines are fragile. A logical plan would be to take the northern bank of the river and encircle Kherson rather than attacking directly. Ukrainian efforts so far appear to follow that plan.
WSJ: Xi warns Russia over use of nuclear weapons: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-rebukes-russias-nuclear-threats-in-ukraine-for-first-time-11667585543 . The meaningfulness of this is unclear, but it’s a step in the right direction.
Users flee Twitter: https://www.slashgear.com/1085846/twitter-account-deactivations-have-skyrocketed-amid-musk-takeover-controversy/ . A million users in 4 days should concern any potential advertiser.
Twitter sued by laid off employees: https://news.yahoo.com/twitter-layoffs-illegal-lawsuit-122037157.html . Class action status is appropriate. However, as the article notes, the case involves a notice law with limited penalties. Depending on the severance benefits Twitter provides, the lawsuit could be mostly mooted. UPDATE: Reports are that all employees were offered 2 months of severance. If this was done without covering the 60 day penalty in the law, some lawyers will shortly be joining those laid off.
Twitter election information teams gutted: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/twitter-layoffs-gutted-election-information-teams-days-before-midterms/ar-AA13L4GI?cvid=21cbbbc0f38a47c7a2b1448eeebd65b6 . The timing of this is outrageous and irresponsible.
Musk’s tweet flagged by … Twitter’s content checkers: https://www.rawstory.com/elon-musk-twitter-2658599914/ . My congratulations to these employees for doing their job. If there is any retaliation against them, the result would be the mother of all whistleblower lawsuits.
WSJ: Musk on Twitter: https://www.wsj.com/articles/on-twitters-layoff-day-elon-musk-looks-to-the-future-11667580529 . This is pretty much the clueless reporting on the clueless. The material in the preceding 4 paragraphs demonstrates that neither the Journal nor Musk have any grasp of the problems Twitter faces. As we reported long ago, Musk had to complete the acquisition because of his idiotic waiver of due diligence. He is now carrying out a business plan that does not fit the culture of the company or its users. At this point, perhaps a quarter of the value he paid remains. His failure to immediately address content moderation looks like a death blow to me.
Can Twitter recover?: https://news.yahoo.com/new-twitter-leadership-sparks-fears-that-it-could-become-a-superspreader-of-hate-speech-204335271.html . Unfortunately for Musk, the people who study this stuff say hate speech is persisting on the platform. Results matter. Musk’s Twitter results suck. I agree with the management experts who say Musk’s best role in a company would be Chief Innovation Officer, and absolutely not Chief Executive Officer. He clearly does not know how to handle employees. Tesla is an example, not a counterexample. The same is true for SpaceX.
WSJ: We complain about a non-issue: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pennsylvanias-varied-approaches-to-ballot-errors-could-sway-tight-races-11667593338 . As the article notes, state law allows each county to decide whether or not to notify voters to cure ballots, and the courts have upheld that provision. Done. The fact that more Democrats have chosen mail-in ballots probably has to do with Orange Julius discouraging GOP voters from mailing in their ballots. The GOP needs to take responsibility for the stupid comments of their tribal leader. My policy, as readers know, is to rely on the Journal for facts but not opinions. But I always include links so you can judge for yourself.
Oath Keepers leader takes the stand in his defense: https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-biden-donald-trump-conspiracy-government-and-politics-d429f25238f1f72bace771c899cf0001 . The self-declaration of patriotism is at best irrelevant and at worse offensive. Certainly Rhodes is guilty of criminal acts in advance of the January 6 insurrection. The question is whether this rises to the level of seditious conspiracy (yes). The length of the prosecution’s case indicates that the evidence is overwhelming.
The defense’s objective should be to paint Rhodes in a favorable light. However, his exposure to what will be wilting cross-examination should have argued against taking the stand. UPDATE: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/stewart-rhodes-set-testify-oath-keepers-jan-6-seditious-conspiracy-tri-rcna55531 . This approach to the defense strikes me as highly unlikely to work. UPDATE: Rhodes’ testimony has already backfired: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/oath-keepers-founder-stewart-rhodes-slipped-and-testified-he-supports-the-right-to-riot-at-his-january-6-trial/ar-AA13JIuP?cvid=21cbbbc0f38a47c7a2b1448eeebd65b6 . The jury heard what he said. His correction does not unwind that.
WSJ: How do you fix a problem like Kyrie?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/kyrie-irving-twitter-movie-suspended-antisemitism-11667590060 . Nike has an answer: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nike-suspends-partnership-with-kyrie-irving-11667610134 .
Astronomers discover “extra-galactic” structure in the portion of the sky obscured by the Milky Way: https://futurism.com/the-byte/astronomers-extragalactic-structure-zone . As physics students know, current theories of the universe anticipate matter and energy we can’t find. So current theory has postulated “dark matter” and “dark energy”. When these astronomers say “quite large”, is there sufficient matter here to change the calculations of how much dark energy and dark matter is out there? (If “only” 58 galaxies are there, the impact would likely be small.)