News for March 8 — The Variant Worry; Immune Interference

The variant worry: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/a-new-lab-study-shows-troubling-signs-that-pfizers-and-modernas-covid-19-shots-could-be-far-less-effective-against-the-variant-first-found-in-south-africa/ar-BB1enlNz?li=BBnb7Kz .

Immune interference: https://theconversation.com/immune-interference-why-even-updated-vaccines-could-struggle-to-keep-up-with-emerging-coronavirus-strains-156465 .

Melinda Gates suggests global herd immunity in 2022: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/covid-melinda-gates-says-we-could-reach-global-herd-immunity-sometime-in-2022.html . This seems unlikely on several fronts. The variant is one issue, the cost, production and distribution of 8 billion doses another.

Travel for the vaccinated, by country: https://thepointsguy.com/guide/country-by-country-guide-to-where-you-can-go-if-youre-vaccinated/ . Well, some countries, anyway.

Potent COVID antiviral drug said to be developed in Italy: https://bgr.com/2021/03/08/coronavirus-treatment-covid-19-drug-tested-in-italy/ . Potency against the variants would be extremely welcome.

Merck’s Molnupiravir reduces viral spread: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/merck-has-better-luck-second-covid-drug-attempt-as-it-sees-a-positive-early-molnupiravir .

WSJ: US vaccine hesitancy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-covid-19-eligibility-expands-interest-may-wane-11615208079 . Herd immunity, even without the variant risk, is not achievable here or globally anytime soon. It is possible that as boosters roll out and drive cases downward, there will be converts to vaccination.

New CDC guidance on post-vaccination behavior: https://apnews.com/article/cdc-fully-vaccinated-can-gather-without-masks-b9775dcde0254037e012ea9447e49917 . CDC is still promoting politics rather than science. I’m not abandoning the mask in group settings even after vaccination because (1) the variants remain a real and growing threat, and (2) even if everyone in the group says they’re vaccinated, what happens if someone else shows up? What if your group goes out to dinner? When the variant surge comes, the CDC will embarrass itself yet again. What we need is better information on the variants, and a booster. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-says-fully-vaccinated-people-can-gather-in-small-groups-without-masks-11615219222 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-you-can-and-cant-do-if-youve-been-vaccinated-travel-gatherings-risk-factors-what-you-need-to-know-11614978343 .

COVID relief delivers more affordable health insurance: https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-health-care-reform-legislation-coronavirus-pandemic-medicaid-326ce72c76e3d2d99da89d3834f4e8b0 .

WSJ: COVID’s lasting effects on mental health: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19s-lasting-effects-on-mental-healthfor-good-and-bad-11615222473 .

Alaska’s vaccination success: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2021-03-09/q-a-how-alaska-is-leading-in-covid-19-vaccination-efforts .

Texas service workers push back against Abbott’s mask order: https://abcnews.go.com/US/texas-service-workers-demand-vaccine-access-protest-end/story?id=76320406 .

UK challenge trials: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/03/08/974903666/why-scientists-are-infecting-healthy-volunteers-with-the-coronavirus . This has been discussed for some time. As I read the article, they have not started. Vaccines are in place and simple modifications are expected to adapt the mRNA vaccines to the variants. What is the point of a challenge trial?

WSJ: Sputnik V doesn’t fly at home: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-covid-19-vaccine-is-embraced-abroad-snubbed-at-home-11615200713 .

The Wuhan lab story continues: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/03/08/josh-rogin-chaos-under-heaven-wuhan-lab-book-excerpt-474322 .

WSJ: Treasury yields continue to rise: https://www.wsj.com/articles/treasury-yields-jump-again-on-covid-19-stimulus-jobs-11615209647 . The continuation of this trend will pressure the stock market. It is already pressuring tech stocks: https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-03-08-2021-11615192681 .

WSJ: Europe’s safety net has holes: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-u-s-throws-workers-a-lifeline-europes-safety-net-leaves-many-behind-11615202977 .

Biden signs executive orders on gender equity and review of DeVos actions on Title IX: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2021/03/08/biden-sign-orders-create-gender-policy-council-review-title-ix-rules/4623723001/ . COVID has caused historic levels of job loss for women.

Biden executive order on voting rights: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/joe-biden/biden-signs-executive-action-ordering-agencies-expand-voting-access-n1259906 . This order shows the limits of presidential order. It is intended to show the necessity of HR 1. I simply cannot see how voter suppression is a viable platform for a national political party, except as a plank in a platform of racism. It is anti-democratic.

Republicans sue Biden over environment cost calculation: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/542149-12-states-sue-biden-over-calculation-of-climate-impacts-in . So apparently it was okay for the prior two administrations to make this calculation, but not Biden.

WSJ: Texas electricity overcharge fight continues: https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-lt-governor-calls-for-reversal-of-16-billion-blackout-overcharges-11615240985 . Mr. Patrick said last year (at the start of the pandemic) that Texas should reopen, and he was willing to die for the economy.  Still, I agree that state should claw back this money. ERCOT totally screwed up with the overcharge, which will bankrupt many innocent residents and players in this market.

Tesla’s Texas mega-battery: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/tesla-is-plugging-a-secret-mega-battery-into-the-texas-grid/ar-BB1emHXQ?li=BBnb7Kz . It would seem more cost-effective to weatherize the Texas wind turbines, but doing both projects would be optimal. More: https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/tesla-is-making-a-giant-battery-to-plug-into-the-texas-power-grid-and-it-could-store-enough-energy-for-20000-homes/ar-BB1emJvi?li=BBnb7Kz . So let’s see: 20,000 homes versus 30 million Texans. This seems like a drop in the bucket. Investors are currently fleeing the stock: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-has-lost-a-quarter-trillion-in-market-cap-in-the-past-month-as-stock-dives-11615264260 . The stock remains insanely overvalued by historical standards.

Roy Blunt is fifth Republican senator not to seek re-election: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-congress-blunt/republican-u-s-senator-blunt-will-not-seek-reelection-in-2022-idUSKBN2B01RD . More: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/542183-blunt-retirement-shakes-up-missouri-senate-race . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/gop-sen-roy-blunt-of-missouri-wont-run-for-re-election-in-2022-11615217930 . My sense is that the toxic culture of Orange Julius is driving out the more moderate Republican Senators. Johnson (not a moderate), Grassley and now McConnell could also retire. More on Grassley: https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/08/politics/chuck-grassley-reelection-senate-seat-iowa/index.html . Democrats desperately need to pass HR 1. Voting rights are now the most important issue of the Biden presidency. (Climate change is the most important substantive issue, but a lot can be accomplished by executive order.)

Is Florida going red?: https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-ron-desantis-florida-60debc6e6b0bcd285d3533a441c3bd69 . Hispanic voters in South Florida did move toward Trump. That was done by stoking fears of socialism in the Cuban and Venezuelan communities. This is just bizarre given Orange Julius’ authoritarian behavior, which is what those communities really fear. Democrats need to (1) not regard the Hispanic community as a monolithic group and (2) run on the effects of the new stimulus deal. And HR 1 would demonstrate the Democrat’s commitment to hearing every community.

Will Florida accelerate the fourth wave?: https://finance.yahoo.com/lifestyle/spring-break-partying-falls-victim-145904336-160305056.html . Yes, even with these cancellations. As we know, the cerebral pre-frontal cortex does not fully develop until the mid-to-late twenties: https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-bowling-green-hazing-stone-foltz-20210308-ngu6dmfoezdcbarpahvawa3fua-story.html .

Manchin on infrastructure: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sen-joe-manchin-says-bidens-infrastructure-bill-can-be-as-large-as-dollar4-trillion-as-long-as-its-paid-for-with-tax-increases/ar-BB1en5PI?li=BBnb7Kz . Here’s the chess game. Infrastructure gives Republicans a chance to be bipartisan. This would undercut HR 1 and the filibuster fight unless the Senate takes up HR 1 first.

Manchin on filibuster reform: His idea is to make them stand there and talk. Are you nuts? You want Ted Cruz and Josh Hawlings to talk nonstop? There is no way that’s an appropriate reform. Here are some different ideas from Vox: https://www.vox.com/22260164/filibuster-senate-fix-reform-joe-manchin-kyrsten-sinema-cloture-mitch-mcconnell . Personally, I favor eliminating the filibuster entirely. The Senate is an extremely unrepresentative body, and the filibuster makes it far worse. At the least, exempt voting rights legislation from it. More: https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/08/politics/filibuster-democratic-reaction/index.html .

The long arm of the law reels in an insurrectionist Sturgeon: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9339519/Capitol-rioter-Isaac-Sturgeon-arrested-FBI-JFK-deported-Kenya.html . This may be tough on the lawn care business. Sturgeons are bottom feeders, by the way. They are a prehistoric fish. U of O’s new stadium, courtesy of Nike’s Phil Knight: https://www.wsj.com/articles/oregon-track-nike-phil-knight-hayward-field-11615169965 . There is no question that Knight’s funding of Oregon football brought that program to national prominence. Interestingly, Oregon track was a long-time power well before Knight was selling waffle-soled shoes from the back of his car. The new stadium looks incredible.