The vaccine wall approaches: https://news.yahoo.com/america-is-about-to-hit-a-vaccine-wall-as-demand-drops-with-or-without-johnson-johnson-162241805.html . This will of course be true at some point. The US population is 331 million, of which 73 million are under 18. So there are about 265 million age 16 or older. If 70% are ultimately vaccinated, all with a two-dose vaccine, that’s 371 million shots.
As of the morning of April 14, 77 million are fully vaccinated and another 48 million have had one shot. That’s right at 200 million doses, leaving 171 million shots. If we continue at about 25 million doses per week, with perfect allocation the 70% would be vaccinated in 7 weeks. That’s the first week of June.
However, some groups and geographic areas have greater vaccine hesitancy or resistance than others. We can therefore expect to see drops in demand growing in many places in the coming weeks.
Almost half of eligible Californians have at least one shot: https://apnews.com/article/gavin-newsom-california-coronavirus-pandemic-b7ab2a35e7abef8aa612a2f3c6b43c14 . Vaccinations are now open to anyone 16 and over.
US vaccination progress: https://apnews.com/article/us-near-200-million-coronavirus-vaccine-shot-2bc06799e4709d69acc67e0e16047ad6 . Meanwhile, Alabama’s divorce from reality is declared final.
WSJ: Annual booster shots: https://www.wsj.com/articles/annual-covid-19-vaccine-booster-shots-likely-needed-pfizer-ceo-says-11618520527 . The mRNA technology is a big advantage in this scenario, and a potentially enormous cash cow for Pfizer and Moderna.
US looking at 300 million dose surplus by the end of July: https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2021-04-15/report-us-expected-to-have-300-million-extra-coronavirus-vaccine-doses-in-july . “Vague” is warranted until we have met US demand. We have already agreed to help Canada and Mexico, which the appropriate first international step.
WSJ: Merck halts tests of experimental COVID drug: https://www.wsj.com/articles/merck-partner-halt-covid-19-treatment-trial-for-hospitalized-patients-11618483561 .
WSJ: Scientists promote vaccines: https://www.wsj.com/articles/variants-fuel-covid-19-surge-but-scientists-voice-optimism-for-vaccines-11618479003 . This is rather superficial. We really don’t know how the vaccines will perform against the variants. But they are all we have right now, other than sensible public health measures which politics has obscured.
Michigan surge fills hospitals: https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/15/health/us-coronavirus-thursday/index.html . Here. We. Go. Again.
WSJ: More on breakthrough cases: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-identifies-small-group-of-covid-19-infections-among-fully-vaccinated-patients-11618490232 .
Variants explode in Oregon: https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/local/coronavirus/2021/04/14/oregon-covid-19-update-new-variants-exploding-oregon/7213467002/ . I’m happy that my second dose will be fully effective Sunday, but well aware that the variants continue to pose significant and unknown risk.
Worry about the Brazilian variant: https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/4/15/22383939/covid-doctor-brazil-coronavirus-variant .
Brazil’s COVID crisis in detail: https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/news-stories/news/brazil-governments-failed-covid-19-response-drives-humanitarian . This is one of the best articles written about the pandemic. It is well-documented and no-nonsense medicine for the tragedy Orange Julius Jr. has brought upon Brazil. Bolsonaro must go.
Europe passes 1,000,000 deaths from COVID: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/15/europe-has-surpassed-one-million-covid-19-deaths-who . The US and the UK have shown that rapid vaccination programs, especially among the elderly, reduce deaths. The skepticism over the AstraZeneca vaccine is a real tragedy. It is killing many more people than the blood clots.
WSJ: Blood clots more likely after COVID than after vaccine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/serious-blood-clots-are-more-likely-in-covid-19-sufferers-than-in-those-who-got-vaccine-study-finds-11618510158 . Kudos to whoever thought up this study model. It may completely alter the blood clot conversation.
Global vaccine production and export: https://www.axios.com/countries-producing-most-coronavirus-vaccines-bda9794a-619d-4b8f-a620-b563421d4459.html . Further to the points mentioned in the previous two articles, the worldwide rise of populism has caused many countries with production capabilities to vaccinate their citizens first. If basic public health principles had been followed globally from the start, we would have never gotten into this mass murder driven by anti-science politics. The experience of the East Asian countries demonstrates that effective contact tracing works.
Iran buys 60 million doses of Sputnik V: https://apnews.com/article/world-news-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-russia-a621235653a9a2fa2b7a8584fbb575a5 . Iran’s population is 85 million; this is enough to vaccinate 30 million. Meanwhile, they remain focused on advancing their nuclear weapons program.
But does Sputnik V work as advertised?: https://www.dw.com/en/is-sputnik-v-vaccine-safe/a-57219314 . No one really knows. There is inadequate testing and data, and there are oddities in the data that has been released.
India’s health system is overwhelmed: https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-hospitals-overwhelmed-by-covid-surge-beds-oxygen-fall-short-2021-04-15/ . And this will unfortunately get worse. Remember that India has nearly 20% of the world’s population.
Expanded COVID limits in Japan raise more questions about the Olympics: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-expand-quasi-emergency-measures-casting-fresh-doubts-olympics-2021-04-16/ .
Initial weekly jobless claims finally break below 650,000 – well below: https://news.yahoo.com/weekly-jobless-claims-week-ended-april-10-2021-pandemic-175704861-180657616-183107044.html . But there are still strong indications of severe long-term joblessness. The large rise in payrolls in March is the best counter-trend in this regard. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/weekly-jobless-claims-coronavirus-04-15-2021-11618433294 .
China’s incredible economic rebound: https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/15/economy/china-q1-gdp-record-intl-hnk/index.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-economy-grows-more-than-18-in-first-quarter-11618539141 .
Reapportionment projections: https://www.wsj.com/articles/census-data-to-reveal-which-states-lose-gain-u-s-house-seats-11618491602 . Needless to say, this is a huge part of the political jigsaw puzzle for the next 10 years.
Senior Congressional Democrats will go slow on adding Supreme Court seats: https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/us-elections-government/ny-supreme-court-expansion-20210415-6rbnlxrfzrgoliihh55qlqh4au-story.html . It is politically wise to focus on infrastructure and voting rights first, as those issues are very popular with the public. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/serious-blood-clots-are-more-likely-in-covid-19-sufferers-than-in-those-who-got-vaccine-study-finds-11618510136 .
Biden’s approval ratings show deep party divides: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/548417-biden-has-nearly-90-point-approval-gap-between-democrats-republicans . My conclusion is that the major threat to democracy right now is Fox “News”.
Does the South need an update?: https://sports.yahoo.com/atlanta-school-named-after-ku-klux-klan-grand-wizard-renamed-for-hank-aaron-002350845.html . Um, there are people naming a school who don’t realize who they’re naming it after? Forrest is one of the most notorious figures in American history. The street name comment is really no excuse at all.
Fox does need an update: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/liz-cheney-she-would-not-support-trump-2024-we-cannot-embrace-insurrection-061400695.html . How did Cavuto miss that Liz Cheney voted to impeach Orange Julius? Hard to say what the most ridiculous “content” on Fox is, but this is right up there.
And these teachers received an update: Your services are no longer required: https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-slavery-4d37e20f24771fcf150c844307d05ae3 . There are so many examples of bad judgment in this article, it’s hard to even comment. This is a full course in why these people should not be around children.
Multiple victims in Indianapolis FedEx shooting: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/shooting-reported-fedex-facility-indianapolis-n1264249 . WSJ: The gunman killed himelf: https://www.wsj.com/articles/multiple-people-shot-at-fedex-facility-in-indianapolis-11618551906 . We must ban assault weapons. The country was safer under the Brady Bill.
A cat does not have nine lives. But an octopus does have nine minds: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-many-minds-of-the-octopus-11618509397 . This does raise interesting possibilities about how consciousness operates in the octopus. We also learn that humans are “neotenous apes”, meaning we retain more of our childhood characteristics than other primates. On my daily run today, the high school baseball teams were out, but there’s apparently no Little League. As I played for two years, and this is the second year of no league, how will this affect these children’s “neotenicity” in later life? This stuff is a big part of social development.
LaMarcus Aldridge retires: https://sports.yahoo.com/la-marcus-aldridge-retires-from-nba-after-experiencing-irregular-heartbeat-during-game-150045025.html . Aldridge was a huge fan favorite here in Portland. Best wishes and thank you for a great career.