News for March 17 — The Coming US COVID Surge

The coming US COVID surge: https://news.yahoo.com/is-europes-new-covid-surge-coming-to-america-next-090058064.html . Over and over again, countries reopen too soon and a new surge comes. Europe is experiencing one now, exacerbated by the Ukrainian refugees. The US, in the process of rapid reopening, is likely to follow.

Other reporting indicates that Omicron subvariant BA2 now represents about 25% of US cases. With the limited information available, I would guess that BA2 would be a prominent factor in the US surge suggested above: https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2022/03/17/despite-fast-spread-new-coronavirus-subvariant-south-bay-cases-decline/ .

Ashish Jha to become new US COVID czar: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/03/congress-covid-spending-bill/627090/ .

The need for more COVID funding: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/03/congress-covid-spending-bill/627090/ .

More on Deltacron: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-03-17/explainer-what-to-know-about-the-deltacron-hybrid-coronavirus-variant .

Moderna seeks second booster approval for all US adults: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/moderna-seeks-fda-authorization-fourth-covid-shot/ . This request is broader than Pfizer’s, which only applies to US seniors.

Immunity status of seniors key to determining risks of new COVID wave: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/16/health/key-indicator-ba2-wave/index.html . This is exactly right, but then you readers already know that.

Generic Paxlovid pill made available to 95 poorer countries: https://www.aol.com/finance/generic-drugmakers-sign-cheap-version-143000676-165939562.html . WSJ: Meanwhile, struggles on global vaccine production continue: https://www.wsj.com/articles/countries-try-to-win-support-for-deal-to-waive-patent-protections-on-covid-19-vaccines-11647530740 .

COVID cases spike in Shanghai: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-17/chinas-new-daily-local-covid-cases-rebound . So again, Omicron is shredding China’s Zero COVID policy. More: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/17/xi-says-china-to-stick-with-zero-covid-strategy .

WSJ: Fed interest rate rise: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-raises-interest-rates-for-first-time-since-2018-11647453603 .

WSJ: Weekly jobless claims drift lower to 214,000: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jobless-claims-edged-lower-in-tight-u-s-labor-market-11647521565 .

OECD predicts Ukraine war will reduce global GDP by 1.08%: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-prices-government-spending-a16dfa27c811248000f2e2fd7fba3cd4 . WSJ: Global poor will be most impacted: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-wars-global-economic-impact-to-hit-poorest-hardest-oecd-says-11647511200 .

Russian general located and killed from unsecured phone line: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-killed-a-russian-general-after-he-made-an-unsecured-call-that-gave-away-his-location-report-says/ar-AAVbLC5?li=BBorjTa . Prior reporting indicated Ukrainians on the eastern front were killed by Russians using call geolocation. So apparently the Ukrainians learned from that experience.

Russian casualties mount, but totals uncertain: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/europe/russian-casualties-ukraine-military-readiness/index.html . We may never know, but the best current guess appears to be 7,000. According the article, the Russians have lost a substantial number of planes, which would explain their inability to establish air superiority. WSJ: Ukraine is a Russian tank graveyard: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-has-become-a-graveyard-for-russian-tanks-11647521721 . However, as Putin has been firing generals, you have to wonder if even he is getting accurate casualty counts. Also, ailing to cut off supply routes from Poland represents an incredible tactical error, as we ship sophisticated surface-to-air missiles in.

Russia’s only plan is to lay siege to cities and kill civilians: https://www.aol.com/un-security-council-meeting-again-072834543.html . WSJ: Russia’s military is failing the test: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-putin-revamped-military-ukraine-invasion-11647469602 .

Every day is an ongoing war crime. An American, Jimmy Hill, was gunned down by Russian soldiers while waiting in a bread line, according to his sister: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/europe/james-hill-american-killed-ukraine-intl/index.html .

Syria to supply 40,000 mercenaries to Russia for Ukraine war: https://www.jpost.com/international/article-701597 .

WSJ: More bidders for Chelsea: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chelsea-sale-roman-abramovich-sanctions-boehly-ricketts-11647531120 .

WSJ: Will China help struggling property developers?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-housing-market-needs-more-than-talk-from-beijing-11647518835 .

The Coors Light defense for January 6 defendant: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/doj-wants-prison-time-rioter-said-absolutely-storm-capitol-rcna19970 . The woman’s speech is in my view a red herring. She did enter the Capitol. So saying she would do it again is at the least showing no remorse for participating in an insurrection. Also, the recommended sentence of 75 days is in my view too light.

Not happy in the Magic Kingdom, Part 2: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/florida-human-trafficking-sting-disney-employees-former-judge/ . Orlando sting nails 108 predators, including several Disney employees and a former Cook County judge. For obvious reasons, people must consider Orlando a safe place for children for the city’s economy to survive. Adding this to yesterday’s Disney news calls that into question.

Amazon closes MGM acquisition: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/media/amazon-mgm-deal-closes/index.html .

WSJ: A thought piece on error analysis: https://www.wsj.com/articles/correcting-our-errors-about-errors-11647534427 . There isn’t a lot of meat here, but the problem is a significant one actuaries should be thinking about.

Texas tragic crash gets more tragic: https://www.aol.com/news/9-dead-crash-involving-u-040404598-213804839.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/boy-13-was-driving-truck-involved-in-west-texas-crash-that-killed-nine-11647553641 . The truck was being driven by a 13-year-old when a front tire (the spare) blew, causing the truck to veer sharply to the left into oncoming traffic. The result was that 6 members of a college golf team and their coach were killed in the van hit head-on by the truck, where both occupants also died.

St. Peter’s miracles: https://www.aol.com/sports/kentucky-stunned-no-15-seed-014205074.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/saint-peters-kentucky-ncaa-tournament-upsets-11647572949 . Another miracle occurred tonight, as #15 St. Peter’s, a college of 2,672 students in Jersey City, New Jersey, defeated #2 Kentucky in March Madness. I just love it when John “One and Done” Calipari loses. For you non-basketball fans, Calipari popularized the approach of recruiting top talent for a one-year college career before they join the NBA. Tonight, John Calipari himself is One and Done. The article’s writer apparently shares my feelings, calling this a “new low” for Calipari.

An open question is why the St. Peter’s nickname is the Peacocks. I don’t think St. Peter would approve. St. Peter is known for his (alleged) inverted cruxifixion, saying that it was not appropriate to die in the same manner as Jesus.

And speaking of saints, Happy Saint Patrick’s Day! (Admittedly, this is a bit late for planning purposes.)