The cancer pandemic: https://news.trust.org/item/20210202100728-ijh2j/ . There were 19.3 million new cases of cancer diagnosed globally in 2020. That is expected to grow to 30 million in 2040 (a 55% increase). Breast cancer has overtaken lung cancer as the most common diagnosis (almost 12% of all cases). Colorectal cancer is third. The COVID pandemic is disrupting cancer treatment in about half of the countries surveyed. Here is other WHO news on breast cancer treatments: https://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/12/19/19/who-moves-step-closer-to-cheaper-breast-cancer-treatment .
Sputnik V vaccine is 91.6% effective, according to study in Lancet: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-russia-vaccine-idUSKBN2A21IT . So, can we trust the data? What is its effectiveness against the variants? Time will tell.
Pfizer anticipates delivering 200 million doses to US government by May, accelerating schedule: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/02/covid-vaccine-pfizer-plans-to-deliver-200-million-doses-to-us-by-may-sooner-than-expected.html . Pfizer expects $15 billion in vaccine sales this year: https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/02/investing/pfizer-earnings-covid-vaccine/index.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-lifts-outlook-on-covid-19-vaccine-posts-weaker-profit-11612270628 .
UK variant continues to mutate: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/uk-covid-strain-picks-up-mutation-that-raises-vaccine-concern/ar-BB1dk1rX?li=BBnb7Kz . Parallel, independent mutation is a marker that the virus is evolving. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-coronavirus-variant-acquires-mutation-that-could-weaken-vaccine-defense-11612289757 .
England testing door-to-door for UK variant: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-vaccines/update-1-white-house-plans-to-send-vaccine-doses-to-retail-pharmacies-idUSL1N2K81XR . At least somebody is doing genomic testing. This should help us when the UK variant becomes dominant here next month. (That is according to CDC and assumes the South African and Brazilian variants don’t overtake it.)
Have COVID care improvements plateaued?: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2021-02-02/advances-in-treatments-against-severe-covid-19-may-have-stalled . Ahem. No. The data is only up to October 2020. As to the last 3 months, we know there have been care improvements. We also know that there are now multiple variants judged to be both more transmissible and more deadly than the original strain(s). We continue to learn more about the disease daily, so care will improve. However, the increased mortality of the new strains will mask ongoing improvements. The new variants may require treatment modifications. Stay tuned.
Vaccinations will ultimately drive the pandemic down to regional outbreaks. (That may be more than a year away in less developed countries.) There may be occasional situations in the US where a hospital is overwhelmed, but we will learn to manage them. And the previous overwhelming events did result in increased mortality. All of these factors make judgment of care improvement a moving target.
Vaccines ship to retail pharmacies starting February 11: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-vaccines/update-1-white-house-plans-to-send-vaccine-doses-to-retail-pharmacies-idUSL1N2K81XR . The 1 million doses are in addition to the 10.5 million doses currently shipped to the states weekly. WSJ: Vaccine supplies increase: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-vaccine-supply-to-states-to-rise-again-biden-administration-says-11612288723 .
WSJ: NY vaccinations suspended by storm: https://www.wsj.com/articles/snow-storm-halts-new-york-citys-covid-19-vaccinations-11612183362 .
Vaccine hesitancy among healthcare workers: https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/why-are-so-many-health-care-workers-resisting-the-covid-vaccine .
Details of White House vaccination tracking strategy: https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-vaccine-progress-biden-administration-fema-203030889.html . The promise is “to manage the hell out of this operation”.
Americans ages 35 to 49 caused 41.1% of recent COVID infections: https://news.yahoo.com/age-group-responsible-nearly-half-new-covid-19-cases-study-195646222.html . Those ages 20 to 34 caused another 31.1%, for a total of 72.2% for the group age 20 to 49.
Oregon judge orders vaccine priority for inmates: https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2021/02/coronavirus-in-oregon-judge-orders-inmates-be-prioritized-for-covid-19-vaccines-23-new-deaths-reported-statewide.html . Swell. The governor has already placed teachers ahead of the elderly, so this represents a further delay for the population most likely to die from COVID.
Ex-Navajo Nation President Albert Hale dies of COVID, age 70: https://apnews.com/article/albert-hale-arizona-water-rights-coronavirus-pandemic-a5a2ec3319803e0556c15e457d3c46e7
Captain Sir Tom Moore dies of COVID, age 100: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-55881753 . More from WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-charity-hero-capt-tom-moore-dies-at-100-11612292795 .
WSJ: Andrew Yang contracts COVID: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-city-mayoral-candidate-andrew-yang-tests-positive-for-covid-19-11612286820 .
WSJ: Hospitals face increased hacking activity: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospitals-suffer-new-wave-of-hacking-attempts-11612261802 .
House will investigate meatpacking plants, OSHA over COVID deaths: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/02/01/962877199/meatpacking-companies-osha-face-investigation-over-coronavirus-in-plants .
WSJ: Antivaxxers join anti-maskers to form Nuts United: https://www.wsj.com/articles/vaccine-skeptics-join-forces-with-antimask-crowd-11612284890 . So “health freedom” is freedom to die? Choose your friends carefully.
WSJ: HCA Healthcare’s profits increase for 2020: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hca-healthcares-profit-rises-despite-drop-in-patients-11612295161 .
Sputnik V approved for use in Mexico: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-02-02/official-mexico-nears-approval-of-russias-covid-19-vaccine . WSJ: More on Sputnik V distribution: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-covid-19-vaccine-was-highly-effective-in-trial-study-finds-boosting-moscows-rollout-ambitions-11612269047 .
France limits AstraZeneca vaccine to those under 65: https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/france-advises-astrazeneca-vaccine-only-for-those-under-65-1.5292680 . The same is true in Sweden: https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/sweden-won-t-recommend-astrazeneca-vaccine-for-people-over-65 .
WSJ: European vaccine scarcity continues: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-europe-tripped-in-covid-19-vaccine-race-11612293218 .
Brazil’s hospitals pushed to breaking point (photos): https://www.reuters.com/ news/picture/brazils-hospitals-pushed-to-breaking-poi-idUSRTR4Z5CU . This puts the growing protests against Bolsonaro in perspective.
Is India approaching herd immunity?: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india/over-half-in-new-delhi-may-have-had-covid-government-survey-suggests-idUSKBN2A21HB . This would be wonderful if true. Then the question will be how natural immunity holds up against new variants.
Biden’s policies very popular: https://news.yahoo.com/yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-more-than-twothirds-of-americans-side-with-biden-on-covid-relief-and-most-support-the-rest-of-his-agenda-203645597.html . This does raise the question of what bipartisan support means. Biden’s policy choices enjoy bipartisan support from the people. Republicans in Congress need to at least consider constructive opposition.
Stimulus negotiations: https://www.yahoo.com/now/coronavirus-stimulus-should-dems-compromise-or-go-it-alone-195819129.html . This discussion seems to miss two critical points. First, reconciliation is limited by the Byrd rule: basically, everything in the bill must relate to one topic. The $15 minimum wage and other provisions are therefore at risk without 60 votes (or a very favorable parliamentary ruling). Second, Joe Manchin has announced opposition to the size of this package. The package may need to be scaled down to get 50 votes. However, the pressure on Manchin will be intense. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-propose-618-billion-covid-relief-plan-11612188851 .
Bezos steps down as Amazon CEO: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-jeff-bezos-steps-down-214255426.html .
WSJ: Europe’s economy remains weak: https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-economy-falls-further-behind-u-s-and-china-its-getting-desperate-11612272788 .
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Insurrection prosecutors focus on rioters who attacked police: https://www.wsj.com/articles/prosecutors-home-in-on-capitol-rioters-who-faced-off-with-police-11612279121 .
“Patriot Party” organizing online: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-facebook-extremists/patriot-party-trump-supporter-groups-grow-rapidly-on-facebook-study-idUSKBN2A21SP . Orange Julius threw this out as a threat to maintain influence over Republicans. There is too much work involved in making this go for someone who just likes to shoot off his mouth. Meanwhile, his followers look more and more like a personality cult.
Impeachment trial strategies: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-house-democrats-to-lay-out-impeachment-trial-strategies-11612270484 . The strategy of asking the Supreme Court to rule is extremely risky and unlikely to succeed. The Court could conceivably have a majority support the idea, but even a 6-3 ruling would destroy the Court’s credibility. I see no possibility of a 9-0 ruling supporting dismissal. The Court has always been reluctant to involve itself in political disputes. The discussion of such a strategy indicates how desperate Senate Republicans are to avoid voting on this conduct.
The Orange Furor defense: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-capitol-defense/he-invited-us-accused-capitol-rioters-blame-trump-in-novel-legal-defense-idUSKBN2A219E . The obvious historical parallel is the Nazi war criminals’ defense that “I was just following orders”. That is a failed defense in most matters, and certainly in an insurrection. Their lawyers undoubtedly know this. The defendants’ problem is the videotape of their crimes. Tweeting and streaming their own behavior was a huge mistake.
“Cowboy for Trump” delusional, to be held until trial: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/us-capitol-attack-voter-fraud-conspiracy-theories-trump_n_60187340c5b6bde2f5c21f71 . The judge apparently favors a mental health evaluation, but it is not clear if that has been ordered. It is noteworthy that the defendant is a county commissioner in New Mexico (Otero – south), as was his father (Catron – west).
The impeachment in writing; here are the briefs: https://apnews.com/article/democrats-donald-trump-capitol-riot-2c4af1e62c2f0373eaa5e5b4028bbb7f . The Democrats’ brief and the Trump answer tell you everything there is to know about the legal arguments. At 14 pages, the answer is less than 1/5 the brief. This is in part because the facts as described in the brief are not challenged. That is not a surprise as America saw the insurrection live in real time on TV, and we have the video.
The indisputable facts make the brief easier to prepare. Still, it is extremely compelling. Legally, the cleverness of the brief is that it relies on the Founders and many conservative sources to make its arguments. It is well focused on persuasion. The arguments concerning national security (page 43) are noteworthy, especially the emphasis here and elsewhere that the members of Congress were under threat of death from the mob.
The Senate jurisdiction argument (page 51) demolishes the concept that Congress cannot impeach a former President. The emphasis on “all” is breathtaking, and entirely appropriate. The Founders did not invent impeachment. Their contemporary understanding of the term is well developed.
The answer really boils down to one thing: writing something down to allow cover for a political decision not to convict. There are no citations, extremely unusual for legal writing. The First Amendment argument is wiped away by the Democrats’ brief (page 48). Again, the emphasis on “at all” is breathtaking and entirely appropriate. That leaves the “former President” argument, which is crushed by the Senate jurisdiction argument. There likely will not be a conviction here, but the Democrats have done brilliantly in this writing to persuade the Senate and the public that conviction is the only legally appropriate result. There is a video being prepared by the Democrats for the trial. If their brief is any indication, the video will put real pressure on Senate Republicans to respect the rule of law.