News for March 9 — School Masking Reduces COVID Cases

School masking reduces COVID cases: https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2022/mar/09/mask-requirements-in-schools-reduced-coronavirus-c/ . Hardly a shocking result, masks reduced case incidence in schools by 23%.

WSJ: Pfizer tests Paxlovid on children ages 6 to 17: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-starts-testing-its-covid-19-pill-in-children-11646826300 .

The risk of wildlife markets: https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/597573-pangolins-harboring-coronavirus-underscored-risk-of . Domesticated animals are also a risk. The annual variants of pig and swine flu come from animal handling practices in southern China.

WSJ: Austria suspends vaccine mandate: https://www.wsj.com/articles/austria-suspends-europes-first-universal-covid-19-vaccine-mandate-11646834154 .

Pig heart recipient dies: https://www.voanews.com/a/recipient-of-pig-heart-transplant-dies-after-two-months/6477096.html . His survival for two months should be viewed as a qualified success for this experimental treatment. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/david-bennett-the-patient-who-received-a-pig-heart-dies-two-months-after-transplant-11646842067 .

Was PPP worth it?: https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2022-03-10/two-years-into-covid-was-800b-payroll-aid-plan-worth-it . In my view, this article dances around the rather obvious conclusions. The PPP was a typical product of the OJ “administration”: poorly thought out, poorly targeted and with almost nonexistent oversight. It is no surprise that most of the money ended up in the hands of the wealthy. And indeed, this newsletter has complained about these problems throughout the implementation and operation of the PPP.

Pentagon rejects Poland’s fighter jet offer for Ukraine as too risky: https://news.yahoo.com/pentagon-rejects-polands-high-risk-plan-to-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-225115431.html . There is also a military assessment that the planes will not help Ukraine that much. More: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/pentagon-rejects-polands-plan-make-us-provide-ukraine/story?id=83324397 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mig-combat-jets-spark-squabble-within-nato-over-helping-ukraine-11646854872 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-wests-challenge-helping-ukraine-without-firing-on-russians-11646834311 .

As best I can tell, the White House has decided their primary objective is to not give Putin any opportunity to expand the war beyond Ukraine. The primary risks would seem to be Moldova, which borders Ukraine, and Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, all of which are NATO members. I see the risk to the latter 3 countries as remote, because any Putin invasion would cause a heavy NATO response.

 The White House has also concluded that a robust supply of Stinger missiles is as or more effective against the Russian air force than are the fighter jets. This last conclusion seems like a mistake, but undoubtedly the US has considerable strategic analysis which is not available publicly.

I also suspect the White House sees the current situation as an opportunity to destabilize Putin, and wishes to keep him locked in a ground war in Ukraine where he will be unable to pacify the population. This approach also provides a profound warning to China over Taiwan. China could easily overwhelm Taiwan, but the international condemnation of Putin will have long-lasting consequences.

WSJ: Another view of global strategic implications: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-failure-china-gain-ukraine-nato-geopolitical-competition-cold-war-allies-beijing-invasion-expansion-war-11646834842 . I agree that Russia has bumbled into becoming a client-state of China and that the future looks like two blocs and not 3. However, the writer ignores the power of global trade and finance, which is about to crush Putin and will have considerable power in reining in China.

House approves Russian oil import ban: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/09/house-ban-import-russian-oil-00015865 . The vote was 414-17.

Russia strikes Ukraine maternity hospital: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-europe-2bed71c00916d44ea951c5809b446db3 . Russia may use chemical weapons against Ukrainians: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-jen-psaki-chemical-weapons-weapons-of-mass-destruction-f01cedf434ec697034b2912696a3448b .

Russian military brass killed in Ukraine: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/these-top-russian-commanders-have-been-killed-so-far-according-to-ukraine/ar-AAUPrRj?li=BBnb7Kz .

Russian debt default “imminent”: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/russian-debt-default-imminent-fitch . Sanctions are biting more quickly than most “experts” anticipated. Russia’s pariah status is being cemented, and Ukraine’s position continues to improve from the substantial and united international support. China may have bet on the wrong horse here.

Background on the ICC and prosecution of war crimes: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/war-crimes-how-putin-could-be-tried-in-the-international-criminal-court/ar-AAUA6Uh?li=BBnb7Kz .

WSJ: Ukrainian refugees overwhelm Poland: https://www.wsj.com/articles/waves-of-ukrainian-refugees-overwhelm-poland-11646856187 . Estimates are that there are now 2 million Ukrainian refugees, and half are children.

WSJ: Russians rushin’ for the exits: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russians-rush-to-leave-as-sanctions-bite-and-putin-clamps-down-on-dissent-over-ukraine-war-11646848224 .

Kevin McCarthy once again affirms that he is an invertebrate: https://news.yahoo.com/mccarthy-mtg-marjorie-taylor-greene-paul-gosar-white-nationalist-conference-191118196.html .

Shackleton’s Antarctica shipwreck found: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ernest-shackletons-ship-endurance-antarctica-sea-106-years-1915-rcna19264 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/endurance-ernest-shackletons-lost-ship-found-after-107-years-11646821921 .