Sacramento school mask mandate returns: https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-california-sacramento-san-luis-obispo-91dc137a08b60f1816114b283cae4f2f . Following the mask order in Alameda County, clearly COVID is surging in Northern California.
WSJ: FDA has safety concerns with Novavax vaccine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-says-novavax-covid-19-shot-effective-but-signals-safety-worry-11654270322 .
WSJ: China still struggles with Zero COVID: https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-sticks-to-xis-covid-19-stance-while-endorsing-premier-as-economic-fixer-11654278219 . The basic struggle is that it does not work as a long-term strategy.
More on Medicare and Social Security insolvency: CRFB (the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget) is a bipartisan watchdog NGO that produces analyses of major federal spending. Their commentary on Social Security this year notes that the projected insolvency in 13 years (2035) will result in an immediate 20% benefit cut (down from previous projections of30%): https://www.crfb.org/papers/analysis-2022-social-security-trustees-report .
The CRFB Medicare commentary notes that the Trustees’ terrifying results (insolvency in 6 years, 2028) reflect current law. If lawmakers continue to update Medicare reimbursements (necessary not to bankrupt the hospitals), projected Medicare spending rises from 6.5% of GDP in 2096 to 8.6% of GDP: https://www.crfb.org/papers/analysis-2022-medicare-trustees-report .
Because of the vast impact on the US economy, imbalances in these spending programs cannot be corrected rapidly. From my time as a research assistant at Social Security (1968-1971), there have been annual warnings of the system’s long-term problems, which are now short-term problems. As has been my view for many years, the most effective fix is to remove the current income caps on Social Security and Medicare taxes. However, as time passes, the ability to minimize the effects of the impending insolvencies declines.
WSJ: Monkeypox mostly affecting the gay community: https://www.wsj.com/articles/monkeypox-cases-concentrated-in-specific-communities-cdc-says-11654287924 . This confirms our previous speculation on transmission by this group.
US recovery slows: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/02/adp-jobs-report-may-2022.html . The weak job adds together with the negative effects on consumers of rising gas prices suggest the US economic growth is backing down. However, because of inflation, the Fed remains commits to raising rates. As such, the risk of a recession within the next 18 months is growing. WSJ: UPDATE: Federal jobs report is much stronger than the ADP report: https://www.wsj.com/articles/may-jobs-report-keeps-fed-on-track-for-half-point-interest-rate-rises-11654267203 . However, as the article notes, this still keeps the Fed committed to rapid interest rate increases. This level of difference between ADP and the Feds is relatively unusual. Perhaps some explanation will be forthcoming. More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/may-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-2022-11654195243 .
WSJ: Still, retailers cut jobs in May: https://www.wsj.com/articles/retailers-cut-jobs-in-may-with-consumers-facing-inflation-pivoting-to-services-11654272840 . Also, Tesla will cut 10% of salaried jobs: https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-eyes-tesla-staff-cuts-11654274682 . Overall, the conflicting data suggests continued recession risk.
WSJ: The Ukraine war after 100 days: https://www.wsj.com/articles/100-days-of-death-and-devastation-in-ukraine-11654259204 . Current expectations are for a war of attrition in the Donbas: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-war-on-ukraine-at-100-days-has-no-end-in-sight-threatening-global-costs-11654250938 . As the Journal notes, a significant portion of the world’s wealth will be burned by a war of attrition. This could ultimately benefit China’s global position. Meanwhile, Russia falters under sanctions: https://www.wsj.com/articles/100-days-in-russias-claims-of-success-in-ukraine-face-hard-test-of-reality-11654283900 .
Does Russia control 20% of Ukraine?: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as-war-approaches-100th-day-russia-now-controls-a-fifth-of-ukraine/ar-AAY104i?li=BBnb7Kz . This statement from Zelensky is getting a lot of press. The math does not seem to add up. Ukraine covers 233,031 square miles. The Netherlands covers 16,040 square miles (6.9% of Ukraine). Belgium covers 11,849 square miles (5.1%), while Luxembourg covers just 998 square miles (0.4%), for a three country total of 12.4% of Ukraine’s land area.
Perhaps Zelensky was pointing out to Europeans that Russia’s control has gone from an area “like” the Netherlands to an area “exceeding” the Benelux countries. But even allowing for some looseness in the analogy, it is not a good one if the answer is 20%. This would be more like Portugal (35,603 square miles, or 15.3%) plus Belgium, for a total of 20.4%. Note that Portugal is roughly 3 times the size of Belgium and Portugal combined.
Uvalde shooting: Error at every level: https://apnews.com/article/uvalde-school-shooting-politics-texas-shootings-7a3cd799fe6ca4155ae39f9e956560e5 . At least their state senator is speaking up about the complete incompetence of the police in protecting these children. And he is absolutely right to lay blame on Greg Abbott’s doorstep.
McCormick concedes to Oz in Pennsylvania Senate primary: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-entertainment-mehmet-oz-6b2849083ff96ac18dc25e939a3f9195 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pennsylvania-senate-nominee-john-fetterman-discloses-heart-condition-following-stroke-11654296676 . McCormick was no prize. He hired Stephen Miller (you know, the Grim Reaper in OJ’s administration, at least at portrayed on Saturday Night Live) to curry OJ’s endorsement, which he failed to get.
Normally, this mess of a primary would make the Democratic nominee, John Fetterman, a shoo-in in November. However, Fetterman recently suffered a stroke. I had predicted a narrow Oz victory, so my named GOP primary calls are now 5-0. I also predicted an Oz loss in November. This will still occur provided more questions do not arise concerning Fetterman’s health. Also, Democrats will need to match GOP turnout, which is tough in an off-year election. (pc, 5/26/22)
DOJ indicts Navarro for contempt of January 6 committee, but spares Mark Meadows and Dan Scavino: https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-peter-navarro-government-and-politics-subpoenas-8defd8645d6cb5cab67767650f6cc303 . The DOJ should explain its decision. The reasons behind it are not obvious. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-navarro-indicted-on-contempt-charges-for-defying-jan-6-subpoena-11654271778 .
WSJ: Yet another Proud Boy pleads guilty in January 6 prosecutions: https://www.wsj.com/articles/proud-boy-pleads-guilty-on-jan-6-capitol-riot-case-11654283706 .
DeMentis’ War on the Different, Part 1: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/desantis-moves-ban-transition-care-transgender-youth-medicaid-recipien-rcna31736 . What happens if one of these children is sufficiently stressed by government abuse to shoot up a school? Will DeMentis claim this as a reason for denying care in the first place? The lack of humanity in this fool is simultaneously disgusting and alarming.
DeMentis’ War on the Different, Part 2: https://sports.yahoo.com/ron-de-santis-threatened-special-olympics-with-27-m-fine-over-covid-19-vaccine-mandate-184702316.html . Does it get more repugnant than bullying the Special Olympics over a health measure they adopted to protect disabled athletes? WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/special-olympics-lifts-covid-19-vaccine-mandate-after-facing-fine-11654304596 .
Japan records record low births: https://www.aol.com/lifestyle/japan-recorded-record-low-births-082941164-174210975.html . This means Japan is faced with bringing in more foreign workers to keep its society operational. Japan traditionally has not been welcoming to foreigners.