RSV vaccine competition heats up: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-10-30/pfizer-rsv-vaccine-lags-gsks-as-head-to-head-competition-underway .
Eye drop infection risk continues: https://www.aol.com/fda-tells-consumers-stop-using-112822089.html . As no reports of eye infection have been made about the newly named products, one suspects these products (mostly house brands) are also produced in India, the source of the ongoing problems.
Tentative GM-UAW deal looks to end auto strike: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/30/business/gm-uaw-tentative-agreement/index.html . This is an historic victory for the UAW. It will help US growth figures for the remainder of the fourth quarter. It may well embolden other unions, increase organizing efforts, and add to “wage-push” inflation. Also, the automakers may be incented to push EV vehicles, which require less parts, can be assembled in a more highly automated manner, and therefore require fewer workers. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/detroit-is-paying-up-to-end-the-uaw-strike-now-carmakers-will-live-with-the-costs-df1d88d7 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-fed-can-wait-d98826e1 .
Pharmacist walkouts continue: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/30/business/cvs-walgreen-pharmacy-walkout/index.html . Note that these are non-union employees. They could certainly benefit from organization. One hopes the pharmacies figure that out and settle.
WSJ: We prefer our politics to actual economics: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/higher-bond-yields-could-end-the-feds-historic-rate-rises-f54b65d3 . Sigh. This article is a shameless attempt to encourage the Fed to step back from further rate increases. As readers know, the normal state of bond pricing means buyers demand a higher interest rate for lending their money for longer – what the article calls the “term premium”. The argument is that because longer-term yields are finally rising, further rate increases are not needed.
The problem is, there is no guarantee that the current rate inversion will in fact fully work itself out quickly, and the US economy remains hot. The Fed’s target is 2% inflation, and we are not there yet. The proper medicine, according to economics, is another 25 basis point rate hike before year-end. I don’t see much in the Fed’s usual signaling that they will adopt such an increase this week. But they should. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-fed-can-wait-d98826e1 . The Journal mostly agrees with me on the data and its interpretation. But then they draw their politically desired conclusion.
WSJ: Canadian auto workers reach deal with Stellantis: https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/canadian-auto-workers-walk-out-on-stellantis-5fce6052 . The Big Three will be humming again shortly in North America.
WSJ: Evergrande given another slim chance: https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-evergrande-winding-up-hearing-adjourned-to-dec-4-197be628 . Short of government intervention, no obvious path to survival has emerged.
German economy shrank in the third quarter: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/30/business/germany-economy-q3-gdp/index.html . In contrast to raging US growth figures (4.9% annual rate in the third quarter), the German economy shrank 0.1%, following anemic 0.1% growth in the second quarter. That is, the German economy is very near recession conditions, which fits with the expectation of a global recession. In my view, this gives a further green light to the Fed to raise rates another 25 basis points.
Mideast war expansion another worry for global recession: https://apnews.com/article/hamas-israel-gaza-war-oil-imf-72152d1d791eed532c2807902297c0fa .
Pentagon pursues upgraded nuclear weapon: https://www.aol.com/news/pentagon-announces-nuclear-bomb-24-080039155.html . This does raise the question of how much nuclear deterrence the US needs. It is hard to imagine we would ever drop this bomb.
Hostage negotiations stall: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/hostage-negotiations-stall-hamas-demand-fuel-deliveries-gaza-rcna122707 . This could well lead the Israelis to continue to step up their invasion. They surely realize that time is not on their side in the campaign to destroy Hamas. WSJ: Total hostage count estimated at 230: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-hostages-israel-gaza-41432124 .
Hamas promises to release 8 Russian hostages: https://www.aol.com/news/hamas-calls-russia-closest-friend-201104281.html . Using the hostages as political bargaining chips was Hamas’ disgusting plan all along. This will not endear them to the Israelis.
Meanwhile, Israel expands ground operation, frees female soldier captive: https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-gaza-war-news-10-30-2023-131e9537aaad8e74586cc114d2668e5a . The civilian population is caught with no escape: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/hamas-israel-war-gaza-palestinians-bombs-light-rcna122684 . I’m sure at least several thousand are dead, but have no confidence in the numbers reported by the Gaza authorities, currently 8,300 dead: https://www.aol.com/hamas-says-8-300-killed-125200633.html . Some of those are presumably Hamas fighters, as Israel has done heavy bombing against Hamas targets. That many of the dead are children seems right, as almost half of Gaza’s population is under 18: https://www.npr.org/2023/10/19/1206479861/israel-gaza-hamas-children-population-war-palestinians . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hospitals-in-gaza-get-closer-to-front-line-in-israels-battle-to-root-out-hamas-c210091f . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-makes-major-advance-toward-gaza-city-2339a2b6 .
Sadly, I agree with Netanyahu that this is war and the Israelis have this one chance to destroy Hamas. While that goal seems impossible, after the slaughter of 1,400 Israeli citizens, the IDF has to try.
McConnell advocates for Ukraine aid: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/30/politics/mitch-mcconnell-ukraine-aid/index.html . Good for Mitch. Our aid to Ukraine has so far kept Americans out of this fight while seriously weakening Russia. One presumes McConnell is communicating privately on this matter with Johnson, since he is doing so publicly. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/mitch-mcconnell-hopeful-new-speaker-mike-johnson-will-back-ukraine-aid-8a784f41 .
SNL was not kidding about Speaker Johnson’s adopted Black son: https://www.aol.com/news/mike-johnson-explains-adopted-black-194953633.html . Johnson has consistently maintained that this son has requested anonymity in Johnson’s public life, and Johnson has respected that. However, with Johnson’s high visibility as Speaker, that equation is changing.
Kevin McCarthy gets a MAGA primary challenger: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4283327-mccarthy-maga-gop-primary-challenger/ . So Kevin’s district is the safest red district in California. A MAGA challenger is probably the only way Kevin can lose. Mr. Giglio is apparently an illogical nut (surprise, surprise), as he is out to fight the “uniparty”, even the the GOP currently holds the majority in the House. By the way, “Giglio” means “lily”, a flower we associate with funerals. We’ll see …
The details of the Orange Julius gag order: https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-gag-order-what-to-know-8b045bab3bd8ecebef2c9cf74a11c357 . As we have pointed out repeatedly, this type of speech is not protected under the First Amendment, and the gag order is narrowly tailored to stop it. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/judge-reinstates-donald-trump-gag-order-dfb86c6c .
January 6 defendant restrained, jailed after courtroom fight: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/vitali-gossjankowski-january-6-tackled-courtroom-hearing/ . This defendant’s post-January 6 behavior has most certainly increased his sentence substantially. It also demonstrates the clear and present danger of OJ’s attacks on the courts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clear_and_present_danger . And yes, this defendant’s actions also fit the “imminent lawless action” test. Courts should keep this in mind in restricting OJ’s speech, and presumably prosecutors will point to this evidence of the problem.
DOJ recommends 10 years for January 6 insurrectionist who was an OJ political appointee: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/trump-appointee-federico-klein-jan-6-doj-10-years-sentence-memo-rcna122774 . The defense attorney has tried to focus on the idea that this guy’s background does not mean he was central to the insurrection. That’s probably about the best defense available, but it’s not relevant. The central point is that this guy was violent and stands convicted of 8 felonies. It is relevant that this guy was a political employee and violently rose up against that government. DOJ may not get 10 years, but they should get at least 6½.
Colorado ballot disqualification trial begins: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trial-whether-trump-kept-2024-ballot-colorado-begins-rcna122728 . And it begins with another stupid move by OJ’s lawyers: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-handed-loss-colorado-trial-1839259 . A $100 contribution to Lauren Boebert’s opponent hardly requires recusal by the judge. These stunts may fire up the MAGA base, but the judge was clearly angry at this absurd motion. I guess OJ’s lawyers have determined they are going to lose this case, because they just made it more difficult to win.
WSJ: Let’s just talk crazy about OJ and the Constitution: https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/why-trumps-drastic-plan-to-slash-the-government-could-succeed-6828ccbe . No possible reading of the Constitution supports a unitary executive theory.
And now we talk fantasy politics: WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/in-first-state-for-gop-presidential-voting-the-race-is-on-for-second-place-e5b87464 . Nikki Haley has no path to the nomination, and the article does not describe one. When OJ won South Carolina’s GOP primary in 2016, he carried every single county in the state. Nikki Haley won’t win South Carolina, but even if she did, that hardly provides a path to the nomination.
WSJ: Okay, now we’ll make a mess of actuarial mathematics: https://www.wsj.com/business/entrepreneurship/climate-risk-is-becoming-uninsurable-better-forecasting-can-help-b9c94ca6 . Weather events are severe and getting more severe. That means losses are becoming both more severe and more unpredictable, which means premiums have to be raised dramatically to cover losses. Apparently the Journal does not understand that basic reality. Well, can we have a mathematical model that forecasts losses with such precision that we can accurately forecast the size and location of these losses?
You’re a casualty actuary tasked with setting your company’s hurricane premiums for calendar 2025. The pricing must be completed by September 1, 2024 to gain regulatory approval and market the product. What mathematical improvements are you going to introduce to better target the 2025 losses? The only solution to improve affordability under current conditions is to expand the areas where you refuse to write coverage. If you read the article closely, you’ll see that is what companies have been and will be doing. Big improvements in mathematical modeling are not going to change that dynamic.
WSJ: Prosecutor grills SBF: https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/sam-bankman-fried-grilled-in-crucial-day-on-witness-stand-29d4e248 . “I don’t recall” does not go very far in this situation.
Cops sent to Maine shooter’s home in September over mental health concerns: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/29/maine-shooting-robert-card-investigation/index.html . The warning to police could hardly have been more specific than this one.
FIFA bans Spanish soccer official for 3 years over Women’s World Cup kiss: https://apnews.com/article/fifa-luis-rubiales-spain-cd0702883950d066fe1b52e240811384 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/sports/soccer/spain-luis-rubiales-jenni-hermoso-16ceb162 .
4 US billionaire athletes: https://www.aol.com/former-nba-star-magic-johnson-192450332.html . They are Tiger Woods, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, and now Magic Johnson.