It seemed most helpful today to send early to cover the very fast-moving election situation, in case readers are not spending all their time following the election (!). Additional COVID-19 media coverage seems unlikely today. I’m going to go rake leaves. See you at our regular time early on the morning of November 6 (the 11/5 newsletter) – I think. Best wishes …
Robust T-cell response after COVID-19 infection: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/03/t-cells-responding-to-covid-19-six-months-after-infection-study-finds.html . This is very good news concerning reinfection risk. The question is whether these findings hold up after additional research. If they do, this may suggest that the most effective vaccines focus on robust T-cell response rather than antibody creation (or perhaps do both).
More evidence the recovery has stalled as COVID-19 surges: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/adp-report-october-2020-private-payrolls-increase-by-365000-vs-600000-estimate.html . Significant additional stimulus is needed. The national debt must increase.
A sad personal story of a COVID-19 death: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/college-student-found-dead-her-dorm-after-testing-positive-coronavirus-n1246376 (link replaced 11/5/21). The failure to deliver her test results is a tragic error. In line with the nature of this country, litigation may well follow.
Italy: Lockdown protests fueled by the Mafia and the far right: https://www.npr.org/2020/11/01/930137092/far-right-mafias-in-italy-fuel-some-violent-anti-lockdown-protests . Why is there resistance to the clear evidence of the public health success in the Asia/Pacific region? This article suggests that for Italy it is the organized forces of chaos. Italy’s government has always been fragile. The risk of expanding chaos is considerable. Italy’s economy is heavily dependent on tourism, which is not returning anytime soon.
WSJ: Brazil: President’s son charged with corruption: https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazilian-president-jair-bolsonaros-son-faces-graft-charges-11604485780 . This is Brazil’s version of the swamp.
And … the election polling is again a hot mess: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/polling-catastrophe/616986/ (link replaced 11/5/21). Is polling routinely missing a significant portion of Republican voters? That sounds right to me (pun not intended).
Biden has the better prospects: https://www.vox.com/2020/11/4/21549117/election-results-biden-trump-count-pennsylvania (link replaced 11/5/21). Agreed.
Here is more on the GOP election challenges: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nbc-news-projects-biden-will-win-maine/vi-BB1aH9KI?ocid=msedgdhp . The Biden campaign is fully prepared to litigate, and they have already been in court multiple times.
I would add that Arizona has been called for Biden by multiple sources. Assuming that is accurate, Pennsylvania is near-critical for Trump. The count is of course critical, but the GOP election challenges there seem unlikely to succeed: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/gop-pennsylvania-blocking-ballots-lawsuit-434045 (link replaced 11/5/21). To me, the critical statement in this article is that the county’s cure policy has been in place for years. More on this court case: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-balloting-pennsylvania/judge-skeptical-of-ballot-counting-challenge-in-suburban-philadelphia-county-idUSKBN27K27W .
Here is more on the GOP election challenges: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nbc-news-projects-biden-will-win-maine/vi-BB1aH9KI?ocid=msedgdhp . The Biden campaign is fully prepared to litigate, and they have already been in court multiple times.
UPDATE: Arizona has been called for Biden by still more sources. Wisconsin is likely in the Biden column as well: https://news.yahoo.com/wisconsins-elections-chief-says-every-170425481.html . Michigan also appears likely for Biden. In this scenario, Trump must win each of NC, GA, PA and NV: https://www.wsj.com/graphics/the-paths-to-victory/ (as this is being written, you have to fill these states in the WSJ tracker to verify my comments). Further update: Arizona has now been called for Biden by WSJ.
In case you haven’t seen Trump’s “victory speech”, here is the transcript: https://www.newsweek.com/what-donald-trump-said-election-victory-speech-full-transcript-1544716 (link replaced 11/5/21). Now you know why Biden spoke earlier. Trump’s “disenfranchise” comment is outrageous given the campaign’s litigation stance: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-false-election-victory-claim-republicans-condemning/ (link replaced 11/5/21).
This situation also indicates that the campaigns have sharper polling than we see publicly. However, both sides may have underestimated Republican turnout. This last comment is indicated by Trump’s earlier comments about hating to lose. If you saw them, he did look and sound like that was his expectation.
Latest Senate results: https://news.knowledia.com/US/en/articles/congressional-democrats-high-hopes-dashed-as-gop-clings-to-senate-65b09848251137a638f0b0c100013ca3535c1ce5 (link replaced 11/5/21). This is not final. The Post article appears to be a bit of an overcall toward Republicans. Mark Kelly (D) is the apparent winner in Arizona. John James (R) is the apparent winner in Michigan. [note: Kelly did win, but Gary Peters came back to defeat John James]
The latest House results: https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-donald-trump-virus-outbreak-dallas-health-deca567c4eed61bef5ebc1c10ec9ed35 . More: https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/dems-hold-house-fail-grow-their-majority-n1246379 (link replaced 11/5/21).
Alabama progresses to the 20th century: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/alabama-approves-bid-to-cut-racist-phrases-from-states-constitution (link replaced 12/8/20).
In closing, please note that Arizona and Wisconsin have been particularly hard hit by COVID-19 recently. This was also true of Michigan earlier. Trump’s handling of COVID-19 may indeed decide the election in ways no one anticipated.