Re-examination of US COVID-19 mortality: https://www.newsweek.com/u-s-coronavirus-death-toll-may-higher-officially-thought-1514911 (link replaced 7/10/21). Significant data problems remain. Another thing I wonder about: the disease is now spreading in rural populations, which have less access to medical care. This suggests to me that the “excess deaths” (hate that term) in these areas are more likely to be COVID-19 deaths.
Cause and effect: https://www.pressherald.com/2020/07/01/the-latest-students-testing-positive-for-coronavirus-are-showing-up-at-parties-anyway-alabama-official-says/ (link replaced 7/10/21). Cases per million would a better measure than total cases. The US is not the only example of a “fragmented” federal approach – Brazil also fits the description, with results similar to ours.
Blitz testing: https://www.newsweek.com/health-department-blitz-test-young-adults-3-states-coronavirus-1514896 (link replaced 7/10/21). Sigh. The numbers in these areas are out of control, too large for effective contact tracing and testing. The problem lies with the governors who re-opened too early; the spike in cases in the young is an effect, not the cause. Blitz testing will quantify what we already know and is a questionable use of inadequate testing materials.
Mask use when in public, together with social distancing, is the most effective strategy in these states at this time (although additional lockdowns should be implemented). The focus should be on managing R0, and that’s how the tests should be prioritized.
WSJ: Concerns remains about older populations: https://www.wsj.com/articles/experts-worry-latest-covid-19-surge-will-shift-from-healthier-to-at-risk-people-11593682201 . In my view, not an “if” but a “to what extent”. Given the asymptomatic aspects of the disease, visitations at nursing homes are a terrible idea right now – every home should use Zoom, Skype, etc., and forbid most in-person visits.
WSJ: Docs disagree on lung treatments for COVID-19: https://www.wsj.com/articles/months-into-coronavirus-pandemic-icu-doctors-are-split-on-best-treatment-11593602756. Long sigh. Yes, an ongoing and intense debate continues in medical circles about what percentage of existing medical procedures are really evidence-based.
Things we do know (see previous news posts): (1) COVID-19 is particularly effective at entering cells with ACE2 receptors, and those cells are concentrated in the lungs. We are therefore seeing a novel level of cellular infection and disruption in the lungs. (2) Ventilators should be used very cautiously: some doctors report an 80% mortality rate for COVID-19 patients placed on ventilators, which often is done in conjunction with a medically-induced coma.
(3) Alternative, less invasive treatments are showing promising results, such as placing patients on their chest and use of anti-inflammatories such as dexamethasone. (4) The key is early treatment, and that is being hampered by people’s fear of going to the doctor or the emergency room, especially during this pandemic. The bright side? Technology has really enhanced the ability of professional communities to communicate, and that is for sure helping in this crisis. And to the extent the public receives useful information, better-educated patients result.
COVID-19 in detention centers: https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/07/01/covid-19-cases-among-immigrant-detainees-could-be-15-times-higher-than-ice-reports/24543081/ . Yet another concern with government data reporting.
A new antibody test: https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/mayo-clinic-launches-neutralizing-antibody-test-to-advance-covid-19-therapies/ .
A lot of info about Moderna: https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-moderna-the-covid-vaccine-front-runner-with-no-track-record-and-an-unsparing-ceo-11593615205 . Takeaways: (1) The company has been around for 10 years and has not yet developed an approved drug; (2) Despite this, it went public in December 2018, raising $600 million through its IPO; (3) Not surprised there is no comment from the Viking hedge fund; who sold most of their position by March 2020? More info: https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/24/if-youd-invested-10000-in-modernas-ipo-heres-how-m.aspx . Yes, but it’s still gambling.
CanSino vaccine in China: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine/cansinos-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-approved-for-military-use-in-china-idUSKBN2400DZ . CanSino is an interesting company. It has ties to Canada (hence CanSino), which is something of a political issue in China because of Canada’s arrest of Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Huawei. CanSino’s CEO is Yu Xuefeng, a “hai gui” (sea turtle), who are native Chinese who gain expertise in the West and then return to China: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine/cansinos-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-approved-for-military-use-in-china-idUSKBN2400DZ . https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/07/02/asia-pacific/science-health-asia-pacific/china-cansino-coronavirus-vaccine/ . https://radiichina.com/china-sea-turtles-existential-struggles/ .
News round-up: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-live-updates-u-s-reports-nearly-50-000-new-cases-another-single-day-record/ar-BB16dYtN?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds . A longer article with interesting state-by-state and country-by-country news. Texas Republicans consider moving their state convention to a virtual event. Management of outbreaks in Japan, Australia and New Zealand show how far behind the US is relative to most of the world. Also of interest: an outbreak in the US embassy in Saudi Arabia, where concerned employees have gone outside of official channels to publicize the problems there.
Texas is still Texas: https://www.billboard.com/articles/news/9413076/vanilla-ice-perform-texas-despite-virus-cases (link replaced 7/10/21). Yes, we’re far behind the rest of the world …
Lonely overtakes doctor’s orders: https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/us/california-thomas-macias-coronavirus/index.html (link replaced 7/10/21).
Brain transplants recommended at University of Alabama: https://abcnews.go.com/US/alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-infected-officials/story?id=71552514 (link replaced 7/10/21). The top medical school in Alabama is … University of Alabama. Crimson Tide, indeed.
Jobs up, at least temporarily: https://abcnews.go.com/US/alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-infected-officials/story?id=71552514 (link replaced 7/10/21). Lingers? And of course, the stock market went up again. Details are more mixed: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-investors-funds-analysis/top-performing-u-s-equity-funds-this-year-are-betting-on-a-transformed-world-idUSKBN2431XK (link replaced 12/30/20).
Just in case you needed more evidence that the best way to save the economy is to control the pandemic: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-overtake-u-world-largest-135614391.html . And: https://www.nber.org/papers/w27432.pdf . Here’s quantification of the idea that consumer behavior is the key measure of the economic decline, and consumers won’t return to the marketplace until they feel safe. Austan Goolsbee is the former chair of the Council of Economic Advisors and was voted Funniest Celebrity in Washington (WSJ): https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/an-interview-with-austan-goolsbee (link replaced 10/31/20).
Your brain on information: https://www.vox.com/podcasts/2020/7/1/21308153/the-ezra-klein-show-the-shallows-twitter-facebook-attention-deep-reading-thinking . I never could quite grasp “the medium is the message”. Now, 50+ years later, I finally get it – I think …
Amazing if proven by further study: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-declining-eyesight-deep-red.html . The idea of low-level light therapy (LLLT) has been around for a while: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5436183/ .
And now for the fall flu: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/potentially-swine-flu-identified-china-imminent-threat-experts/story?id=71554049 . Just to recap what we know: the northern hemisphere has a significant flu season every year. Because the flu virus mutates easily, scientists develop a new vaccine each year based on the strains which emerge. The pig virus is one of those, and so should be considered in this year’s vaccine development. The annual vaccine can vary significantly in efficacy, depending on whether the viruses identified for the vaccine are close in nature to the flu strains that emerge in the fall. The underlying problem remains: we need to control the pandemic before the fall so that we can distinguish cases of flu from cases of coronavirus.