Omicron US blitzkrieg underway: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-new-york-new-york-city-kathy-hochul-5129e53128a7a249d36790402220aecc . New York reports 3 more cases. Massachusetts, Connecticut and Washington state announced their first cases Saturday. Washington actually has 3 cases: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-washington-2ecf86de95ca24efa60081ec6d36db83 . Connecticut’s case may be tied to New York City: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/new-york/articles/2021-12-04/connecticut-reports-first-variant-case-may-be-tied-to-nyc .
Omicron is now in 15 states. Again, so far this is the fastest spreading variant we have seen. This is particularly remarkable given the much higher levels of vaccination now than when the other variants emerged. Also, I dissent from the general viewpoint which sees the variants as in competition for dominance. We can absolutely have an Omicron pandemic at the same time we have a Delta pandemic. In fact, we seem to heading toward that right now. Hopefully Omicron will turn out to be a less severe disease than Delta. However, I remain concerned that these variants will combine in a deadly way.
Rapid testing to contain Omicron: https://news.yahoo.com/omicron-variant-shows-need-for-rapid-covid-tests-182336980.html . Sigh. OF COURSE rapid testing is a key element of containing a disease outbreak. Public health has always taken a multifaceted approach to controlling disease, even when we had much less understanding and fewer tools. The problem with COVID is that most governments adopt a one-dimensional solution. In the US, we focus on vaccination. Other countries focus on lockdowns. The results have been appalling.
Identifying Omicron in San Francisco: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/how-scientists-in-san-francisco-found-the-first-case-of-the-omicron-covid-19-variant-in-the-united-states/ar-AARmlJc?li=BBnb7Kz . Note that the researcher identified the sample by working out the genetic sequence on a pocket-sized gene sequencer. In my first actuarial summer job, I was a computer programmer (hahaha) where my stacks of computer cards were fed to an IBM 360 that took up a floor of our building (an entire city block). And that was total cutting edge, state of the art in 1969.
Meanwhile, America finds a new use for coal: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/04/homeowner-snake-infestation-burns-down-own-house-maryland . Does abject stupidity void his homeowners insurance? I’m guessing this inventor does not work for IBM.
WSJ: US COVID pandemic status: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-omicron-threat-looms-delta-variant-pushes-covid-19-cases-higher-11638633600 . Again, Delta remains the driver of cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
Ignoring COVID in San Francisco: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-lifestyle-public-health-san-francisco-7e5f9420a109eae1f81a497a6d20c0a2 . Personally, I favor 14 days of quarantine/jail time for these morally irresponsible losers.
COVID outbreak on cruise ship: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-louisiana-new-orleans-1f8edb74567df1abdbc29161d800056f . Who thinks it’s a good idea to join 3,200 strangers on a cruise ship during a pandemic? Undoubtedly, the majority of readers have already concluded we are seeing yet another example of natural selection.
Jen Psaki calls out GOP for prolonging the pandemic: https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-blames-republicans-for-prolonging-the-pandemic-232912915.html . As readers know, I think Jen Psaki has been the most outstanding White House press secretary in memory, and probably ever. As you also know, the anti-science behavior of the GOP governors is in my view mass murder. Jen Psaki is right on, and I’m impressed she called them out publicly (and Biden has as well).
WSJ: The politics of fighting COVID: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-omnicron-covid-masks-vaccine-mandates-11638574233 . As usual, the Journal provides some interesting data and then misinterprets it. Note that during the pandemic, approval ratings for Republican governors have dropped 22 points, while the Democratic governors have dropped 14 points. That proves (1) on average, everybody is less satisfied with their governor, and (2) Republicans’ response to COVID is less well regarded than Democrats’ response. The fundamental failure has been to make this a political issue. COVID should be a public health issue, period.
Michigan hospitals near breaking point with COVID patients: https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/12/03/michigan-hospitals-near-breaking-point-covid-19-other-patients/8853871002/ .
The fiscal risks of Biogen Alzheimer’s drug: https://www.salon.com/2021/12/04/this-one-threatens-to-tank-medicares-entire-prescription-model/ . We have been reporting on this problem for months.
Slovakia hits new record of daily COVID cases despite being in lockdown for a week: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-europe-slovakia-bratislava-8c5fc0ac3eea457532468b0afc8eb140 . The pandemic continues …
Does Mexico have millions of unused vaccines?: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-12-04/where-did-mexico-s-extra-covid-shots-come-from . Many less developed countries have issues getting shots into arms. South Africa in particular is a place where there is a low vaccination rate but significant vaccine supplies.
Conservative argues Orange Julius tax cut benefitted all income levels: https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/584190-irs-data-prove-trump-tax-cuts-benefited-middle-working-class-americans-most . This reminds me of Mark Twain: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics”. This appalling “statistical analysis” ignores at least two key points. First, the US has one of the most unequal wealth distribution systems of any country. We are on a par with South Africa. Second, decades of lobbying by the powerful have made Swiss cheese of our so-called progressive tax system. Remember Warren Buffet’s complaint that his tax rate is less than his secretary’s (as if anyone says “secretary” anymore).
When you start with a totally stacked deck, dealing some benefits to every group at best just maintains the prior (massive) inequities. This analysis is crap which rivals “trickle down” economics. Hey, let them eat cake.
More cake news from Joe Manchin: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/joe-manchin-signals-he-may-not-back-bidens-social-spending-plan-until-2022-risking-an-abrupt-cutoff-for-monthly-child-tax-credit-checks/ar-AARs5sy?li=BBnb7Kz . The Democrats are fiddling while the middle class burns. Failure to pass Build Back Better by year-end is an obvious mistake that will forfeit the 2022 elections to the GOP. The reason is bizarre. The GOP has no policy but to inflame their base. Meanwhile, the Democrats are failing to meet their policy promises to their base. It is way, way past time to pass some form of BBB.
The GOP evolution/devolution: https://www.politico.com/news/2021/12/04/massachusetts-gop-523730 . With GOP registration at less than 10% of the population in Massachusetts, it is not a viable party in a two-party system. The more important issue raised by GOP loyalty to Orange Julius is whether the party is marching toward regionalism. That is, the GOP will remain strong only in the flyover states and the South. To the extent Democrats can maintain their current strength in Georgia, and threaten in Texas and Florida, the GOP faces permanent minority status at the national level.
CNN fires Chris Cuomo: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/04/media/cnn-fires-chris-cuomo/index.html . The clear implication is that Cuomo did not fully disclose his activities on behalf of his brother to CNN.
Michigan shooter’s parents plead not guilty: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/parents-suspected-michigan-school-shooter-custody-manhunt-rcna7599 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/michigan-school-shooting-suspects-parents-charged-with-involuntary-manslaughter-11638552325 . The charge raises an interesting legal point. Involuntary manslaughter is a more serious charge than negligent homicide. The defendant’s behavior is considered not just negligent, but reckless: https://reischlawfirm.com/criminally-negligent-homicide-vs-manslaughter-whats-difference/ . Meanwhile, the parents claim the gun was locked up: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/michigan-school-shooting-probe-widens-suspect-parents-rcna7660 . Well, the kid obviously accessed the gun. Where was the key?
Will Russia invade Ukraine?: https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-europe-russia-ukraine-vladimir-putin-9ef2a191af25e2920a0a1c75ccbe4c13 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-troop-buildup-near-ukraine-raises-concerns-of-potential-2022-invasion-u-s-officials-say-11638589004 . This story has been rattling around for a while now. However, US intelligence agencies are becoming increasingly strident in their warnings.
Alabama beats Georgia, and college football’s 2021 destiny got a lot clearer: https://sports.yahoo.com/alabama-bedevils-georgia-yet-again-to-win-sec-championship-004709412.html . Here are the projected playoff rankings: https://fansided.com/2021/12/04/projected-cfp-rankings-alabama-beats-georgia/ . I would place Michigan ahead of Georgia, but that makes no difference because No. 2 plays No. 3. Alabama is clearly No. 1, and Cincinnati will be No. 4. That’s because Cincinnati is the only undefeated ranked team, and they beat Houston (a ranked team) handily today. And this result excludes Notre Dame (which lost to Cincinnati earlier this year). This will be popular with everyone except Notre Dame. And this makes the result even more popular with everyone else.
As to the playoffs, I predict Alabama will crush Cincinnati. After all, Alabama just beat Georgia, which is a much better team than Cincinnati. My comment about placing Michigan ahead of Georgia tells you I think Michigan is playing well enough right now to beat Georgia. That result would also be better for college football, as we don’t really need to see SEC’s Alabama play SEC’s Georgia again.
And the national champions will be Alabama. They basically have a bye in the first round (sorry, Cincinnati), and they’ve played the toughest schedule this year. That said, I will root for Michigan. If you saw Alabama play Auburn or Texas A&M, you know they are not invulnerable. And I don’t really care for Nick Saban.