Omicron-specific boosters’ September arrival: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/us-plans-september-covid-booster-push-after-moderna-order/ar-AA106Mww?cvid=cff9c2117fe84dac8975c72a76aca860 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-reaches-1-74-billion-deal-with-moderna-for-updated-covid-19-shots-11659098919 . Both Pfizer and Moderna have moved up their US delivery dates from October to September. As a result, the government has ruled out expanding second booster eligibility for those under 50 this summer: https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-government-and-politics-8474cb7c84ef5cec85ea1029269acfc6 .
The inflation news … gets worse: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/29/inflation-figure-that-the-fed-follows-closely-hits-highest-level-since-january-1982.html . Really, I’m at a loss as to why the market went up during July. Yes, there have been some strong corporate earnings. However, the Fed has aggressively raised rates. They cannot slow down until inflation comes down quite a ways. In other words, simply appearing to hit a peak isn’t enough. We’re at 9%, and the Fed target is 2%. Also note that while the expectation for the Fed September action remains at 50 basis points, this article says that the chance of a 75 basis point increase rose yesterday rose to 38%. This month has been a bear market rally.
Bill Ackman agrees: https://www.benzinga.com/news/22/07/28261273/stocks-bonds-rally-on-neutral-rate-optimism-bill-ackman-warns-these-expectations-are-misplaced . I understand that opinions differ, and that for every buyer there is a seller. But basic economics tells us things are way out of alignment right now.
WSJ: We slept through economics: https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-employers-labor-costs-inflation-q2-2022-11659061404 . Note that the Journal broke into Powell’s quote about “an unusually large increase” to specify 75 basis points. Nope. Fifty basis points is also an unusually large increase, the standard being 25 basis points. Their specification screws up the meaning.
Record inflation in Europe: https://apnews.com/article/inflation-russia-ukraine-prices-european-union-a41427d7237376c965edb9171326a021 . Growth in the eurozone was a meager 0.7%. A global recession seems certain. More: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-07-29/german-economy-stagnates-in-q2 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/even-at-0-rising-rates-loom-over-europes-weakest-economies-11659051778 .
WSJ: We promote our own economics: https://www.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-recovery-picks-up-speed-but-ukraine-war-threatens-deep-contractions-11659087222 . This article is lunacy. A 0.7% growth rate is “picking up speed” only in relation to the 0.1% prediction. And, as noted in the prior paragraph (by the Journal, no less!), the European Central Bank is beginning to raise rates (to combat record inflation). Europe is headed for recession.
WSJ: We also don’t understand the Chips Act: https://www.wsj.com/articles/intel-shows-limits-of-chips-act-11659105553 . Good grief!! The article makes no mention of the critical national security issues associated with chips. The modern army cannot function without smart weapons. For obvious reasons, the US cannot rely solely on Taiwan Semiconductor. So we have to subsidize the industry, at least until Taiwan Semiconductor’s US plant becomes operational. This article is journalistic malpractice.
Meanwhile … WSJ: Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan is still on: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nancy-pelosi-to-travel-to-asia-with-possible-taiwan-stop-despite-china-warnings-11659122055 . If the Journal’s reporters at least read their own newspaper, they might understand the Chips Act. But apparently they don’t.
WSJ: Evergrande’s sales evaporate as company develops restructuring plan: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-evergrande-breaks-silence-on-debt-restructuring-plan-11659125713 . China’s miss of its growth target will be significant, even if they fiddle with the numbers.
WSJ: The problems of a strong dollar for weak currencies: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-strong-u-s-dollar-is-extending-pain-in-emerging-markets-currencies-11659087001 . Defaults will also act as global recession triggers.
The alternate theory of the Manchin-Schumer deal just gained massive traction: https://news.yahoo.com/republicans-just-scored-spectacular-own-155000288.html . This detailed report has considerable credibility. It does explain the otherwise inexplicable GOP action to reverse course on funding benefits for veterans harmed by military burn pits. And it does show that Schumer can play the long game as well, and perhaps better, than McConnell. Also, as the article suggests, this GOP hissy fit creates new liabilities for their two-faced behavior in the November elections. Wow.
The media is now providing broad-based confirmation: https://www.rawstory.com/republicans-in-disarray-after-manchin-deal-expands-fissure-between-mccarthy-and-mcconnell-report/ . Here is the CNN article referenced in the prior link: https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/28/politics/mitch-mcconnell-kevin-mccarthy-republican-divisions/index.html . Here is the Politico reporting mentioned by Raw Story: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/28/mccarthy-mcconnell-bill-votes-00048565 . It does look like Schumer and Manchin have been underestimated in many quarters. The Democrats’ tax and climate bill has not yet passed, but because it fits under reconciliation, the Democrats only need to stay together in the Senate and the House, and not get COVID. However, “stay together” is often a huge challenge for the Democrats in Congress.
House passes semi-automatic weapons ban for show: https://apnews.com/article/gun-violence-politics-shootings-congress-fd91c092aef91a992ee959399ba6f222 . This symbolic gesture will die in the Senate. However, it is the first attempt in 18 years to reinstate this life-saving ban. WSJ: We think it’s the first attempt in 28 years: https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-passes-bill-to-ban-sale-of-assault-style-weapons-11659134071 . The confusion likely relates to the fact that the ban was passed in 1994 and expired in 2004.
January 6 committee schedules interviews with OJ cabinet members: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jan-6-select-committee-has-interviewed-mnuchin-and-is-negotiating-appearances-by-fellow-trump-cabinet-members-01659123040 . This raises an intriguing question. Will we find out more about discussions to invoke the 25th Amendment? This is not a typical situation involving executive privilege, because it obviously does not involve advice to the President. There is no Fifth Amendment issue. And many of these Cabinet members may be (more than?) willing to testify.
Josh Hawley’s Manhood pounded on social media: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/josh-hawley-manhood-twitter-jokes_n_62e30899e4b006483a9bddfc . This reminds me that the American West progressed based on the idea that the pen is mightier than the sword (or six-shooter). Put differently, Mark Twain was a more powerful historical figure than Billy the Kid. Today, the right is armed; the left is armed with the Internet. No wonder remote work has become so popular.
The GOP landslide is evaporating?: https://www.rawstory.com/gop-2657773804/ . This article misses a very key point: all politics are local. That absolutely applies to House races. As such, the Democrats remain underdogs to retain a majority in the House. However, the GOP hopes of a 40-seat majority are evaporating. The article misses the key reason: The GOP has nominated a number of OJ “Big Lie” supporters who won’t win in a general election.
More importantly, the GOP is unlikely to win Senate control for the same reason. The marquee candidates were all endorsed by OJ, and they are all trailing right now: Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, JD Vance in Ohio, and Herschel Walker in Georgia. OJ will be (deservedly) blamed for this. His failure as a kingmaker will kick off the 2024 Presidential race with all of the GOP candidates saying the party must look to the future and not the past. More: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/fringe-candidates-putting-republicans-u-s-senate-hopes-at-risk/ar-AA105UGm?cvid=2a6647ebae4b42eeaeb86a3d1c8a61ec .
GOP Senators show they are dumber than boards, on video: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/video-shows-republicans-fist-bumping-after-blocking-veteran-healthcare-bill/ar-AA1064RM?cvid=3cdae607da644be1b2fe2982fc40751f . This makes a great political commercial – for the Democrats …
WSJ: Musk Twitter deal trial set for mid-October: https://www.wsj.com/articles/twitter-elon-musk-5-day-trial-is-set-for-week-of-oct-17-in-delaware-chancery-court-11659100793 . His attorneys should be making substantial settlement offers. Musk has a weak legal position here. More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-files-response-and-counterclaims-to-twitter-lawsuit-over-44-billion-deal-11659129207 .
WSJ: Troubles in planning commemoration of the US 250th anniversary: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-replaces-head-of-project-to-commemorate-250th-anniversary-of-u-s-11659096002 .