Omicron resurgence threat of BA5: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/omicron-subvariants-threaten-covid-19-resurgence-us/story?id=86611325 .
WSJ: Moderna Omicron targeting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/moderna-is-developing-two-different-omicron-targeting-booster-shots-11657554383 .
US orders 3.2 million Novavax doses: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-07-11/u-s-secures-3-2-million-doses-of-novavax-covid-vaccine .
WSJ: Drug industry struggles to develop long COVID treatments: https://www.wsj.com/articles/long-covid-is-an-elusive-target-for-big-pharma-11657473045 .
WSJ: The COVID wave in Europe: https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-strains-drive-new-covid-wave-in-europe-as-measures-fall-away-11657552364 .
Shanghai mass COVID testing continues: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-07-12/unnerved-shanghai-residents-brave-stifling-heat-for-mass-covid-tests . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-spreading-at-fastest-pace-since-shanghai-lockdown-sends-shivers-through-china-markets-11657541394 . Yes, yet another chorus plays on the failure of Zero COVID. It’s the never-ending song at this point.
Treatment advances for pancreatic cancer: https://penntoday.upenn.edu/penn-in-the-news/watershed-moment-doctors-finding-new-hope-treatments-deadly-pancreatic-cancer .
FDA considers over-the-counter abortion pill: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/11/fda-weighs-first-ever-application-for-over-the-counter-birth-control-pills-in-the-wake-of-roes-fall-00044819 . Science is about to obliterate limits on women’s control over their bodies. If over-the-counter birth control becomes available anywhere, it will be available everywhere. This gives me some hope that the conservative Supreme Court majority can be reined in by reality. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-aims-to-offer-first-nonprescription-birth-control-pill-in-u-s-11657554683 .
California doctor proposes floating abortion clinic in the Gulf of Mexico: https://apnews.com/article/abortion-health-reproductive-rights-government-and-politics-bfab2bd6604229d7b2bcad630037c4e8 . And it would be called … the Love Boat?
Biden administration says doctors must offer an abortion if the mother’s life is at risk: https://apnews.com/article/abortion-health-government-and-politics-4221f9306a596904b9af2e0d1fad23b9 . The article notes that this provision is in federal law, which supersedes state law. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hospitals-must-provide-abortions-in-emergency-situations-biden-administration-says-11657569637 .
Corporate response to Roe reversal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-brands-voice-support-for-abortion-access-as-others-stay-quiet-11657533604 . Do you ever remember corporations publicly grieving over a Supreme Court ruling? The Court has cut its own throat by losing broad public support.
WSJ: Insurers grapple with extended COVID risks: https://www.wsj.com/articles/long-covid-may-be-long-tail-of-risk-for-insurers-11657537380 .
A minority view on the Fed: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-07-11/u-s-consumers-see-inflation-picking-up-in-year-ahead-but-moderating-over-longer-term-ny-fed-survey . And this is likely to remain a minority view for some time. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-george-concerned-about-effect-of-aggressive-rate-rises-on-economy-11657554589 .
WSJ: Consumer inflation expectations falling: https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-fed-survey-sees-long-term-inflation-expectations-falling-11657551645 . Contrary to the WSJ spin, this is not great news. For many people, their home is their largest asset. Home price deflation is a real possibility as interest rates rise sharply.
Same data, different view: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/what-usually-happens-next-to-the-stock-market-plunge-152810310.html . As actuaries know, data is different from information. The data in this article is accurate as far as I know, and matches my experience. But my conclusions are quite different.
I began investing in 1973, with my then-life savings of $3,000. The first thing that happened was I lost one-third of my money, having invested in a brand-new mutual fund. My view after almost 50 years of investing is that stock markets have materially but gradually changed over time. Therefore, more recent experience is more predictive of future conditions. I believe that data before 1973 reflect the wars after World War II, up to and including Vietnam. I therefore toss that data.
That leaves 6 full 2 year periods after a 20% correction. This data shows the increase/decrease ratio is 3/3 after 6 months, 1 year and 2 years. In others words, the increase/decrease ratio is 50/50 over all time periods. Furthermore, the increase/decrease over 6 months is a 6/6 predictor of the subsequent results after 1 year and 2 years.
The obvious outlier in the table is the 72% 2-year return starting March 2020, which brings us to March 2022. In short, some downward correction was necessary. Also, we expect Fed interest increases of 75 basis points in July and 50 in September. Even though the market has priced those in, there does not seem to be a significant rebound in the cards until at least October. However, there is the potential for more downside. I think a market entry point is coming, but don’t think it has come yet.
Also, as regularly stated here, interest rate increases are simply the only tool the Fed has against inflation. This tool is not effective against supply chain problems and other aspects of current inflation. There is therefore a significant chance that the Fed overshoots on the rate increases needed. When they figure that out and reverse course, we will have an excellent market entry point for long-term bonds.
In an unusually dark view, Black Rock moves away from developed countries’ stocks: https://www.cityam.com/the-era-of-steady-growth-and-inflation-is-over-blackrock-warns/ .
EU cuts its economic forecast: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-07-11/euro-zone-to-focus-on-inflation-as-economic-outlook-forecast-to-worsen .
Judge refuses to delay Bannon trial, shreds the defense case: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/11/judge-shreds-bannon-defenses-ahead-of-contempt-trial-00045191 . Bannon is apparently deaf. The judge says he will not allow a circus. Bannon’s attorney says, What’s the point in going to trial if there are no defenses? Bannon’s choices are to meaningfully cooperate with the subpoena NOW or do whatever time his sentence will involve. He’s apparently not willing to cooperate. Bye, bye, Steve. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/prosecutors-say-steve-bannon-should-still-face-trial-11657544368 .
Meanwhile, New York squeezes OJ: https://www.rawstory.com/trump-rally-2657650011/ . Couldn’t happen to a bigger pimple.
Also, Lindsey Graham takes a subpoena in the shorts: https://www.rawstory.com/trump-rally-2657650011/ . By the way, “sub poena” means “under penalty” in Latin. They were the opening words in an old writ demanding appearance.
Elon Musk takes heat for his “efforts” to repopulate the planet: https://www.today.com/parents/parents/meghan-mccain-elon-musk-nick-cannon-dads-kids-rcna37535 . While Musk seeks publicity, his recent results may not be to his liking.
Here’s President Biden’s Webb telescope pic, as shown on the NASA site: https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2022/nasa-s-webb-delivers-deepest-infrared-image-of-universe-yet . More pics will be released Tuesday. WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-reveal-first-full-color-image-from-nasas-james-webb-space-telescope-11657566580 .