Omicron forecast: Reign of Terror: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-omicron-covid-19-deaths-08f8db29985b992d5ef98ccfa1459eb7 . More: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/590227-models-predict-wave-of-covid-19-deaths-into-march . When the range of deaths from the model is 58,000 to 305,000 deaths, the uncertainty of the assumptions becomes obvious. My suggestion is to just take the model’s deterministic figure of 191,000 deaths over the next two months as this model’s output. And note that this figure is based on the assumption that the current Omicron wave will end in mid-March.
Worldometers says US COVID deaths currently exceed 877,000. So if we have even 123,000 deaths (less than 2/3 of the model’s estimate), the US will exceed 1 million COVID deaths by mid-March. Nearly all of those deaths occurred after March 15, 2019. So the pandemic will have killed 1 million people in 2 years.
Is Omicron over in South Africa?: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-omicron-variant-south-africa-turning-point/ . Okay, I realize that no one is saying what I am about to say: what we know is that South Africa’s first wave of Omicron is over. COVID infections move in waves, we all can agree on that. Many countries had multiple waves of Delta. We know that Omicron has caused more breakthrough infections than any previous variant. We also know that Omicron can reinfect people. And last, we know that subvariants of Omicron have already appeared.
So, along with everyone else, I hope Omicron is one and done. But there is no evidence yet that Omicron is only one wave. And that thinking goes against our general knowledge of viral transmission. We’re supposed to follow the science, remember? Again, South Africa has a much lower average age than the US does. That alone makes Omicron more severe in the US than in South Africa.
Mayo Clinic predicts Minnesota COVID peak on January 26: https://www.startribune.com/mayo-model-foresees-omicron-peak-in-minnesota-next-week/600137018/ .
WSJ: Pfizer oral antiviral Paxlovid effective against Omicron: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizers-new-covid-19-pill-works-against-omicron-in-lab-11642528120 .
COVID at-home test site goes live: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/how-order-free-covid-tests-home-use-white-house-website-n1287647 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-administration-starts-taking-orders-for-free-covid-19-tests-11642530639 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-order-free-covid-19-at-home-rapid-tests-from-the-governments-new-website-11642536274 . I submitted my order Wednesday afternoon. I received an electronic confirmation from USPS almost immediately. The site indicates tests will begin shipping in 7 to 12 days, just in time for the holidays … oh, wait …
WSJ: Insurance coverage for at-home test kits purchased over the counter: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-at-home-tests-insurance-11642189127 . And how to find them: https://www.wsj.com/articles/find-covid-home-tests-using-online-product-trackers-11641303715 .
Genetics of COVID sensory loss: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/genetic-risk-factor-found-covid-19-smell-taste-loss-researchers-say-rcna11996 . The headline oversells the research on the loss of taste and smell in COVID patients. The correlation found is an 11% increased risk for persons with a certain gene combination. We know this symptom is a unique marker for COVID. That it appears in long COVID suggests that a subset of patients suffer permanent olfactory damage. However, an 11% increased risk seems to me to be something less than “a really beautiful example of science”. It’s more like a starting point.
Insurance coverage of at-home testing: https://www.aol.com/finance/insurance-covers-home-covid-testing-015727169.html . We learn here that insurance coverage has a $12 maximum per test. Tests are covered up to 8 per month per person. So insurers are looking at a maximum cost per month of $96 per person. Wide usage could certainly affect an insurer’s bottom line, since this was not priced into the 2022 premium.
WSJ: Texas and Arizona employment levels recover: https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-arizona-have-recovered-all-the-jobs-lost-when-covid-19-hit-11642501805 .
January 6 committee orders out for fruitcake: https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-boris-epshteyn-bennie-thompson-donald-trump-subpoenas-871ecaecc54ffff987205684833850ed . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/rudy-giuliani-jenna-ellis-subpoenaed-by-jan-6-committee-11642545914 . These conspiracy theorists will likely make the same ridiculous executive privilege claim already repeatedly turned away by the courts. These fools will try to run out the clock before the November elections.
WSJ: Tonga eruption may have produced tsunamis from air-pressure waves: https://www.wsj.com/articles/furious-tonga-volcano-explosion-set-off-waves-in-the-airthen-rare-tsunamis-11642499429 . Not to mince words, but the 1883 eruption site is typically transcribed Krakatoa. I would note that “tau” is the 19th letter of the Greek alphabet, 4 letters after Omicron, so we may be hearing about it soon enough. Meanwhile, Tonga needs to bring in aid but keep out COVID: https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-volcano-eruption-tonga-needs-to-bring-in-aid-but-keep-out-covid-19-11642495532 .