News for July 16 — Omicron BA5 Loss of Smell

Omicron BA5 loss of smell: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/ba5-symptoms-loss-smell-common-rcna37961 . The anecdotal evidence here is that this symptom is appearing more frequently. However, other anecdotal reports are that the symptom is less frequent. So the jury is still out …

AARP summary of BA5 status and management: https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2022/omicron-ba-5.html . First, the unhelpful: the virologist quoted should retire or be retired from public statements on coronavirus. He states that BA5 is “sort of maximized” to evade immunity, and that this variant has reached a “pinnacle” in terms of transmission and evasion. Both of those comments misstate how viral evolution works. They suggest that if we can just get by this one we’ll be fine. That is true only until the next more successful variant comes along.

As this newsletter has stated repeatedly, it is more accurate and helpful to consider the pandemic as an arms race between the virus and the vaccines. This is a dynamic situation, not a static one.

Next, the helpful: The article contains this link to a national location finder for Test-and-Treat Centers: https://aspr.hhs.gov/TestToTreat/Pages/default.aspx . Look up your nearest locations. You’ll have the information in mind should you or your neighbors need this information when they are not feeling well, or if you or they have a positive at-home test.

How will the 988 launch go?: https://news.yahoo.com/988-suicide-hotline-launched-states-prepared-191953917.html . My prediction has been, not too smoothly, followed by significant catch-up. This article gives us many reasons for the “not too smoothly” part. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-is-988-suicide-lifeline-11657376158 .

Social Security COLA 2023 increase: https://news.yahoo.com/social-security-increase-164839728.html . The article estimates the January benefit increase at 8% to 11.4%. That outstrips the outsized 2022 increase of 5.9% and would be the largest increase in 4 decades. The article also does a good job of enumerating the follow-on effects: potential reductions in net income gain due to inflation, increased Medicare Part B premiums, tax liability and decreased eligibility for other government programs such as SNAP and rental assistance programs.

The increase could also accelerate the exhaustion of the Social Security trust fund. However, the increased Part B premiums could marginally help the Medicare trust fund, which has an even earlier projected exhaustion date. Could inflation-related wage increases help the inflow into these funds? Yes, but the amount of that inflow is uncertain.

WSJ: DOJ realizes the January 6 committee has done a helluva job: https://www.wsj.com/articles/justice-department-steps-up-jan-6-probe-of-those-in-trumps-orbit-11657974467 . As is often the case, the Journal misses the story here. Typical prosecutorial style is to build a conspiracy case from the bottom. Here there are so many “little guys” who committed criminal acts that DOJ totally bogged down in trying to process all those cases. In light of what the January 6 committee has shown, DOJ now appears to have gone after the little guys while ignoring the threat to democracy (an accurate appearance, in my view). So they are forced to play catch-up.

The problem is, it’s less than 4 months until the election. Democrats have every right to be furious with Merrick Garland. Think of how many problems we would not have if he had made it onto the Supreme Court.

Nuts for DeMentis: https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/3562436-desantis-snags-10m-donation-from-entrepreneur-who-said-aliens-were-on-earth/ . I learned a long time ago that the only difference between rich people and poor people is that the rich have money.

Foreign nuts: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/16/the-uss-selfish-war-on-inflation-will-tip-the-world-into-recession . So, I agree with the premise that the US raising interest rates will magnify the global recession. Indeed, I believe it is already leading to a US recession. But this article’s description of that act as “selfish” seemed odd, so I looked closer. The article slumps into absolute drivel which bears no relationship to basic economic principles.

There is no way I can dismantle all of the false associations the author makes. However, I will strap on one particularly egregious error in logic. It is true that a strong dollar makes US goods more expensive abroad. However, that is generally seen as a hit to the US economy (it lowers demand for our products) and thus a boost to foreign economies (their goods and services become cheaper, and thus more in demand in the US and elsewhere as a replacement for US goods and services). So how is this “selfish”?

By the author’s premise, China has been generous because it works to undervalue its currency. But again, almost everyone sees this as unfair competition in the global marketplace.

People who have no concept of economics should not pontificate on the subject without at least gathering some review of their reasoning and conclusions. However, this goofball is ECONOMICS EDITOR AT THE GUARDIAN! He also wrote a book, Managing Your Debt. Perhaps he does not understand the difference between microeconomics and macroeconomics – governments get to print money, for one thing. However, the principles of economics are the same globally. Really, I’m stunned that The Guardian would print this silliness.