No COVID data from China: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/china-limits-data-after-us-research-spurred-alarm-wsj-says/ar-AA1aSdRu?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=e99b7922598040aea98600877690a93f&ei=25 . As readers know, I have been trying to report on the COVID situation in China with little success, because data has pretty much been shut off after the Party Congress. This article tells you why: China sees sensitive data as a potential enemy, and therefore not to be let out. That is, COVID data is just another political prisoner of the Chinese government. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-think-tank-reports-prompted-beijing-to-put-a-lid-on-chinese-data-5f249d5e .
WSJ: Alzheimer’s drug roll-out to occur slowly: https://www.wsj.com/articles/access-to-new-alzheimers-drugs-might-depend-on-where-you-live-4829caed .
US debt ceiling: The 14th Amendment ploy: https://www.aol.com/news/biden-says-not-yet-ready-145205391.html . We have no guidance as to what that language in the 14th Amendment means. It becomes a legal research task to pour over the hearings and speeches around the 14th Amendment for clues as to the language’s intent. Given the Supreme Court’s new (and questionable) attempts to establish a “major questions” doctrine where they leave major political questions to the Congress, this conservative court may refuse to read this clause as a broad grant of powers to the executive branch. It would be better if the Congress raises the debt ceiling. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-lawmakers-look-to-break-impasse-on-debt-ceiling-3b6e6809 .
The 2024 Senate races: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3978937-senate-rankings-here-are-the-5-seats-most-likely-to-flip/ . There will be new Senators elected beyond this, for example in California, but they will be senators of the same party as the current senator. Here are the 5 states most likely to flip from one party to the other. Let’s predict them. In West Virginia, it is unclear but probable that Jim Justice will be the Republican nominee. I think Manchin will still run, and this race will be close.
The main question to me is whether Orange Julius is the Republican nominee. OJ will lose nationally against Biden as long as Joe remains healthy, but he might help Justice with turnout in West Virginia. So Manchin’s re-election may depend on whether OJ’s legal troubles prevent him from becoming the GOP nominee.
Montana is a red state, but Jon Tester is popular. The GOP looks headed for a bitter primary fight. I think Tester wins even if OJ is the GOP nominee. Similarly in Ohio, Sherrod Brown is popular and the GOP looks headed for a primary fight.
Arizona is a mess. Kyrsten Sinema is unpopular within both parties in Arizona. I doubt she can be elected as an independent. However, I also think she knows that, and chose to declare as an independent in Arizona because she does not intend to run again. She was actually trying to increase her power within the Senate during the remainder of her term. In that case, both parties have weak candidates in the field so far, but if it’s Gallegos against Lake, Ruben Gallegos will win. Last, Bob Casey will win re-election in Pennsylvania.
So my call, surprising even to me, states that 3 of the 4 Democratic incumbents will win re-election, the Democrats will win Arizona, and West Virginia will decide whether the Senate is 51-49 Democratic or 50-50 with Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker. In other words, very little change.
What this means is that the real focus of the 2024 election may be what no one is talking about –Democratic attempts to flip at least 5 states blue and retake the House. We remain 18 months out from the 2024 election, so really these predictions are just a marker for further discussion.
Meanwhile, judge in E. Jean Carroll rape case stuck it to Orange Julius: https://www.rawstory.com/trump-e-jean-carroll-2659976085/ . Judge Kaplan is an experienced, no-nonsense judge. He’s not taking any crap from OJ.
Ron DeMentis leaked debate prep: https://www.rawstory.com/desantis-trump-2659975910/ . I particularly like the part where Ron rejects certain barbs suggested by his staff because “they make me look like an a**hole”. You shouldn’t worry about that, Ron, you’re already there. Also, who does debate prep with Matt Gaetz? (Hint: Starts with “a”). More: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ron-desantis-was-advised-to-write-likable-at-the-top-of-his-notepad-as-a-reminder-to-himself-to-not-get-aggressive-old-2018-debate-prep-video-shows/ar-AA1aSHM4?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=a38419f107384792b52f547055740ec9&ei=83 . OMG, Ron, can you connect the dots here? Who has to write “LIKABLE” across the top of his debate notes? Someone who’s not … and most people spell it “likeable”.
WSJ: Proud Boys chapters step up anti-democratic activities at local levels: https://www.wsj.com/articles/proud-boys-step-up-activity-after-jan-6-attack-despite-criminal-convictions-9f2e05fa .
Investigators consider whether Texas mall shooter committed a hate crime: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/07/suspect-shooting-texas-mall-allen-00095708 . The shooter had an RWDS tattoo on his chest, which stands for Right-Wing Death Squad. Swell. WSJ: We got the story, just a day later: https://www.wsj.com/articles/reports-of-an-active-shooter-at-a-mall-outside-of-dallas-927389ad . More, as we catch up: https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-shooter-used-ar-15-style-rifle-in-attack-4ec74709 .
Former FCC Chairman Newton Minow dies at 97: https://apnews.com/article/newton-minow-dies-tv-vast-wasteland-3aa9234488f44df9b7f59f8072e1c8a1 . While the headline gets it wrong, the article correctly notes that Minow’s comment on 1960’s TV as a “vast wasteland” created a phrase that entered the popular vernacular.
All-star pitcher Vida Blue passes at 73: https://www.aol.com/sports/vida-blue-3-time-world-182422544.html . Blue’s name is instantly recognizable by baseball fans from 50 years ago (including your correspondent).