Sturgis superspreader event?: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/515453-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-was-superspreading-event-that-cost-public . Bottom line, the study concludes that the 462,182 attendees passed through 61% of US counties returning home and resulted in 266,796 cases in the period August 2 to September 2. Here is the study: http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf . Bottom line, I don’t buy it.
The rally ran 10 days, August 7 to August 16, with pre-rally events starting August 3. Now, 91% of the participants came from outside South Dakota and neighboring states. This tells us that most participants stayed for most of the rally, as they took a long bike trip to get there. To simplify, let’s suppose everyone left August 17. How many people had COVID-19 on that date, and how many were additionally infected after that date?
We have over 300 reported cases connected to Sturgis so far, and that’s almost certainly a significant undercount. I previously estimated that 758 people arrived in Sturgis with infections (News for August 11), based on then-estimated attendance of 250,000, so let’s ratio that up to 1,400. Could there have been 26,000 infected people leaving Sturgis on August 17? Maybe, although if we’ve only identified 300+ Sturgis-related cases as of September 8, contact tracing would be an even bigger fail than we already know it is. Even if we assume 26,000 at August 17, and 91% (23,660) left for home, farther away than South Dakota and neighboring states, could that produce an additional 240,000+ cases at September 2, 16 days later?
It takes some number of days to get home on a bike, attendees were generally older, and if they became seriously ill they’re no longer riding a bike (and should show up in that 300+ count). Passing through a county on a bike isn’t likely to spread much disease except along major routes, so most spreading would occur on arrival home. The study provides some evidence of this, but in my view not enough to establish a causality that results in “19 percent of 1.4 million new cases of COVID-19 in the United States between August 2nd 2020 and September 2nd 2020.” Note that the 19% would be about double for the period August 17 to September 2, and there’s no evidence to support such a result.
There’s some interesting data here (the 91% and the cell phone pings), but the analysis is unconvincing and the result doesn’t fit general reasonableness checks.
Europe’s superspreader event: Ischgl: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/05/everyone-was-drenched-in-the-virus-was-this-austrian-ski-resort-a-covid-19-ground-zero .
AstraZeneca vaccine trial paused: https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-pauses-covid-19-vaccine-trial-after-illness-in-a-u-k-subject-11599608962 .
COVID-19 and obesity: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7190793/ .
COVID-19 and obesity: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-obesity-risks/2020/09/04/0f370980-e22f-11ea-b69b-64f7b0477ed4_story.html . Angiotensin is part of the RAS system – and we’re right back to bradykinin.
Possible reasons that the COVID-19 mortality rate is falling: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/06/why-is-it-that-while-covid-19-cases-are-rising-deaths-continue-to-fall .
Productivity gains from working remotely: https://theconversation.com/have-we-just-stumbled-on-the-biggest-productivity-increase-of-the-century-145104 .
WSJ: The diminishing economic return of a college education: https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-education-levels-provide-diminishing-economic-boost-11599400800 . College is going online, tuition pricing must adjust as a consequence, and the “bricks and ivy” is looking like an investment in a shopping mall.
WSJ: Taking the office water cooler virtual: https://www.wsj.com/articles/techs-next-big-task-taking-the-office-water-cooler-virtual-11599397201 . And then if you apply this technology to the “bricks and ivy”, tuition pricing drops further …
Automated cleaning accelerates during the pandemic and further threatens low-wage workers: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/09/08/robot-cleaners-surge-pandemic/ . So if low wage workers are threatened, and there are diminishing returns from a college education, the apparent growth industry is … stress reduction? And who’s paying for it?
The second pandemic: mental health: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1078390320919803 . The “defund the police” movement to create more mental health resources in emergency situations may compete with the other, increasing mental health needs of the general public.
Majority of young adults now live with their parents: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/04/a-majority-of-young-adults-in-the-u-s-live-with-their-parents-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-depression/ . Yet another mental health crisis.
WSJ: More on the worsening opioid crisis: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-opioid-crisis-already-serious-has-intensified-during-coronavirus-pandemic-11599557401 .
WSJ: Faster, less accurate testing: https://www.wsj.com/articles/public-health-officials-pursue-covid-19-tests-that-trade-precision-for-speed-11599562800 . Trading one problem for another.
WSJ: The debate over sending college students home: https://www.wsj.com/articles/colleges-send-students-home-as-outbreaks-worsen-are-they-creating-a-new-coronavirus-threat-11599471000 .
Allegiant Air removes passenger asking flight attendant to wear mask: https://www.businessinsider.com/allegiant-passenger-removed-from-flight-for-asking-attendant-wear-mask-2020-9 .
WSJ: Boeing hits more production problems: https://www.wsj.com/articles/production-problems-prompt-broad-faa-review-of-boeing-dreamliner-lapses-11599498118 . Remember the News for September 6 commented that the WSJ prediction of Boeing consolidating production in Charleston seemed off because of the major production problems there? WSJ should be reading this newsletter.
Small business shuns payroll tax deferral: https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-ap-top-news-ca-state-wire-tx-state-wire-business-1c12bd77a806850c3646c0e60500ebe7#:~:text=The%20tax%20must%20still%20be,the%20government%20if%20staffers%20leave. (link replaced 11/5/20).
WSJ: Business recovery hurt by worker visa bans: https://www.wsj.com/articles/business-recovery-hampered-for-some-by-foreign-worker-visa-bans-11599393600 .
Tyson to open on-site medical clinics: https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2020-09-03/tyson-foods-to-open-medical-clinics-at-some-meat-plants?src=usn_nl_coronavirus .
Alabama implements tracing apps: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2020-09-03/alabama-students-utilize-testing-and-screening-tools-to-help-track-covid-19?src=usn_nl_coronavirus . After all, football is at stake here.
WSJ: China commences initiative on data security: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-launch-initiative-to-set-global-data-security-rules-11599502974 . The battle over technology ramps up.
WSJ: China exports accelerate: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-exports-ramp-up-as-countries-emerge-from-lockdowns-11599462525 .
The poop on John Oliver: https://www.newstimes.com/local/article/Danbury-mayor-has-a-condition-to-offer-John-15546471.php .