Moderna forecasts vaccine sales decline: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-02-23/moderna-sticks-to-5-billion-sales-view-for-covid-shot-despite-solid-q4 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/moderna-peers-over-a-scary-profit-cliff-5374e4d4 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/moderna-mrna-q4-earnings-report-2022-8f43fe98 .
WSJ: Bird flu outbreak continues: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bird-flu-outbreak-chicken-shortage-egg-prices-eb8cced2 . This is now the deadliest outbreak on record. Of course, this causes grocery price inflation, for both chicken and eggs.
The coming US recession: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bond-king-jeffrey-gundlach-tells-investors-to-prepare-for-recession-and-warns-against-trying-to-prevent-a-downturn/ar-AA17Qvsu?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=d64e9e6462ca473fa8b8438ed2162979 . The “rule of financial physics” here strikes me as correct. The recent stock market (bear) rallies look as if investors are trying to prevent any significant downturn. The end result is likely to be a more severe downturn in the market, because this is “Fight the Fed” behavior.
Fourth quarter US economic growth figures revised downward: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-fourth-quarter-gdp-revised-lower-on-weaker-consumer-spending/ar-AA17QD9f?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=5c6de78395cb421faaf6799836ea3c2c . The most significant downward revision is in estimated consumer spending. Meanwhile, the inflation figures were revised upward. WSJ: We read the same data differently: https://www.wsj.com/articles/economy-showing-strength-in-early-2023-after-last-quarters-gdp-gain-revised-modestly-lower-5b068ade . There are times when the Journal seems to be a stock market tout sheet. This is an example. In context, all of this data points to further Fed rate hikes.
WSJ: Weekly jobless claims edge downward: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jobless-claims-edged-lower-last-week-84f80188 . Yet another piece of data arrives encouraging the Fed to continue to raise rates.
Paul Krugman defends viability of Social Security and Medicare: https://www.alternet.org/paul-krugman-tears-down-arguments/ .
China property market problems continue: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-02-23/in-china-more-families-on-the-fence-on-home-buying-foreclosures-cloud-sector . There is plenty here to suggest a downward price correction in the near future.
China’s central bank becomes less independent: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-shake-up-financial-system-as-xi-jinping-installs-key-associates-1b962796 . I would expect this change, if adopted in March, will reduce foreign investors’ confidence in China. This seems particularly ill-timed given China’s tilt toward Russia.
WSJ: US increasing military presence in Taiwan: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-expand-troop-presence-in-taiwan-for-training-against-china-threat-62198a83 .
Israel’s far right government widens conflict with Palestinians: https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-strikes-hamas-sites-as-conflict-widens-114307fe . This powder keg continues to move closer to ignition.
Wagner believed working to destabilize Chad government: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-intelligence-points-to-wagner-plot-against-key-western-ally-in-africa-29867547 . Russia looks more and more like an international terrorist organization.
Wagner cools spat with Putin: https://www.wsj.com/articles/wagner-head-draws-back-from-feud-with-russian-military-over-groups-losses-in-ukraine-d3ea4925 . Maybe Prigozhin (Wagner’s leader) thought more clearly about the defenestration risk.
WSJ: China urges ceasefire in Ukraine war: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-urges-cessation-of-hostilities-peace-talks-to-end-ukraine-war-ae45829a . No one in the West is buying this …
Grifters control the GOP: https://apnews.com/article/arizona-state-government-2022-midterm-elections-donald-trump-fraud-55d9a729d412ef45ba234d5397cc8839 . Here we have the now-former Arizona Attorney General who, when in office, withheld an investigation showing no significant fraud in the Arizona election. Why? He was trying to win his primary for re-election. But he lost to a candidate favored by Orange Julius, who then lost to the Democrat in the general election. And why? OJ said the AG was not doing enough to uncover election fraud. What these people saw in “aMErica FIRST” was “ME FIRST”. They are despicable seditionists, nothing less.
Why they’re grifters: https://www.aol.com/news/mitt-romney-says-marjorie-taylor-033817214.html . That is Mitt Romney’s (accurate) view of Marjorie Taylor Greene. Splitting the US is not going to happen, obviously. It’s just Greene’s way of raising money and growing her power. And Greene is now more powerful in the GOP House than Romney is in the Democratic Senate. Greene’s district is some “nowhere” in rural Georgia. Romney was the GOP presidential nominee in 2012. The GOP under OJ has sunk into a deep hole from which it has so far been unable to recover.
The crap machine behind these deplorables: https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-think-tank-house-republicans-losing-strategy-debt-ceiling-rcna71684 . To say the budget math here does not work is a gross understatement of how unrealistic it is. This is basically the “garbage in, garbage out” modeling technique. “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king”.
Ohio train derailment blamed on overheated wheel: https://news.yahoo.com/ntsb-crew-tried-to-stop-train-before-east-palestine-derailment-161726556.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/train-car-wheel-bearing-overheated-before-ohio-train-derailment-ntsb-finds-ad721c29 .
Fox Not-the-News points out OJ officials never visited train derailment sites: https://news.yahoo.com/fox-news-points-trump-officials-130128781.html . This information is one of the few things we can trust Fox on, because it is something their audience does not want to hear. It is so specific, the OJ zombies can easily refute it if it’s not true. Well? While we “wait”, remember that, just like George Santos, OJ is a grifter, and that’s all he chooses to do …
More poorly thought out analysis: https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/02/did-donald-trump-just-walk-into-a-trap/ . The writer completely misunderstands current politics. Biden beat OJ pretty handily. He will win any rematch. However, keeping the spotlight on OJ is the national version of the Democrats supporting beatable Republican candidates in the GOP primaries. Until the GOP finds a way to get past OJ, this scene will play out over and over again.
New charges against FTX founder and grifter SBF: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-faces-4-new/story?id=97415611 . I don’t recall a time when we’ve had so many complete crooks on the national stage. We seem to be suffering devolution … WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-prosecutors-bring-more-criminal-charges-against-sam-bankman-fried-c467b522 .
More indications a federal indictment of OJ nears: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/sharply-incriminating-legal-experts-say-ivanka-and-jared-subpoenas-are-an-end-game-move/ar-AA17QMKy?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=ba9a32b549ce4867a81c4ae8a5b82405 . This fits my larger view that the Feds will indict by the Fourth of July, to reduce conflict with the 2024 presidential race. Here’s another puzzle piece in the same direction: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3871651-rnc-votes-to-hold-first-presidential-debate-in-milwaukee/ . Gee, why would the GOP start debates as early as August 2023? WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-choose-milwaukee-for-first-gop-presidential-primary-debate-6d8794f6 .
Speaking of grifters: The guy OJ calls Lyin’ Ted: https://moneywise.com/taxes/irs-plans-to-change-how-it-taxes-tip-workers . Full disclosure: My immediate reaction to this photo was, How can Ted Cruz get uglier every time I see him?
Murdaugh takes the stand at his murder trial: https://news.yahoo.com/alex-murdaugh-testifies-at-his-murder-trial-185530121.html . As everyone knows, this is a risky maneuver in a criminal trial, as the prosecution has the burden of proving their case beyond a reasonable doubt. Murdaugh, a disbarred lawyer and long-term drug addict who stole from his clients and admits lying to police about his whereabouts at the time of the murders, is in no way a sympathetic defendant. It is an incredibly high bar to get a jury to believe this guy against the prosecution’s evidence. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/alex-murdaugh-says-he-plans-to-testify-in-his-double-murder-trial-d857fe23 .
Harvey Weinstein sentenced to another 16 years in jail in California: https://www.aol.com/entertainment/ex-producer-harvey-weinstein-faces-202105636.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/harvey-weinstein-sentencing-california-sex-crimes-121712c9 .
After today’s overflowing gallery of losers, some warming news. The Journal tells us how the Allman Brothers band provided Jimmy Carter’s presidential campaign with crucial support: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-allman-brothers-band-helped-make-jimmy-carter-president-e7a576c6 . I am impressed but not surprised that Jimmy Carter attended Gregg Allman’s funeral.