Keep COVID military vaccine mandate: https://apnews.com/article/biden-health-united-states-covid-lloyd-austin-d15ef6ae680c33398caad0372b1aac90 . Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin sees the mandate as an important protection of soldiers’ health. It is also an important part of military readiness. On the other side is … Kevin McCarthy. What else do you need to know?: https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2022-12-03/biden-administration-mulls-ending-u-s-military-covid-19-vaccine-mandate .
Xi rejects Western vaccines: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-12-03/chinas-xi-unwilling-to-accept-vaccines-despite-threat-from-protests-u-s-intel . That is, nationalism endangers the lives of elderly Chinese.
Chinese authorities loosen COVID public transport rules: https://apnews.com/article/health-travel-business-beijing-fa1c43206ebd6d75a4de4b8cc8d75a59 . Xi believes Omicron is less lethal than prior variants: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-12-02/chinas-xi-told-eu-less-lethal-omicron-opens-way-for-fewer-covid-restrictions . That may be true in the US because we have had previous infection waves and higher quality vaccines. But the COVID death rate here still exceeds 100,000 annually.
Dow bottom typically comes one month after Fed pivot: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-wishful-thinking-that-stocks-will-soar-before-the-fed-pivots-to-lower-rates-11669702405 . We still have no idea of the depth or length of the coming US recession. However, corporate earnings projections are being lowered. That should mean that stocks prices should drop in response.
Major banks predict 24% stock market decline in early 2023: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-morgan-stanley-wall-100000108.html . As noted above, earnings projections are already being reduced.
Larry Summers predicts Fed will raise rates more than market anticipates: https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3760507-larry-summers-predicts-fed-will-need-to-raise-interest-rates-more-than-market-anticipates/ . This is not much of a prediction if you just listen to what Chairman Powell has been consistently saying: The Fed will take a recession to beat inflation. They are considering slowing the rate of increase but believe rates must go higher than the consensus opinion in September.
WSJ: Supply chain risks: https://www.wsj.com/articles/threat-of-rail-strike-reveals-persistent-supply-chain-risks-to-u-s-economy-11670027561 . The analysis in this article is weak to nonexistent. My view is that we are moving forward with transitioning to a “two axes” supply chain. This transition will ultimately create a major Western advantage over the China-based axis. The labor risks to the supply chain have always existed and are increasingly irrelevant as automation takes over routine tasks: https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-robots-workers-11670022563 .
WSJ: Trade frictions between the Western allies: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-and-europe-gird-for-trade-spat-over-washingtons-push-for-domestic-investment-11670020598 . There is no doubt that the Ukraine war has created an energy supply chain issue with Russia that deeply affects Europe. The pandemic caused Western nations to provide temporary subsidies to keep businesses operational. The question now is the level of ongoing incentives to attract capital.
Please note that business and investment incentives have always been provided through the corporate taxation structure. As such, no Western economy is pure capitalism. The GOP prefers to turn its back on this obvious fact.
WSJ: Russia’s shadow oil market: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-will-rely-on-shadow-tanker-fleet-to-keep-oil-flowing-11670036535 . Western sanctions are leaky. However, this is apparently intentional.
WSJ: New Zealand: The aggressive recession: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-central-bank-that-raised-rates-early-now-talks-up-recession-11670030658 . New Zealand’s economy is heavily import/export. As such, inflation is more difficult to control, so controls must be applied aggressively.
Latest analysis of Russian casualties in Ukraine: https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/putins-disaster-the-russian-military-is-bleeding-to-death-in-ukraine/ . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-presses-assault-in-eastern-ukraine-in-a-bid-to-encircle-kyiv-forces-11670084489 .
Orange Julius wants to “terminate” US Constitution: https://www.rawstory.com/trump-coup-2658827194/ . No man is above the law. Neither are orange pigs.
Heavy early voting in Georgia favors Warnock: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/georgia-senate-runoff-smashes-early-voting-records-attracts-new-voters-rcna59981 . And this perception of Walker is not helping the GOP base turn out: https://www.axios.com/2022/12/03/herschel-walker-georgia-runoff-geoff-duncan .
World Cup 2022: Netherlands eliminates US, will face Argentina: https://apnews.com/article/us-eliminated-from-world-cup-netherlands-advances-504fcc7a5a1541bc3aefbd43cc1ff09c . Simply put, the Netherlands were the better squad. The US made progress by advancing to the Round of 16, but they demonstrated very few goal scoring options. The Netherlands shredded the US back line, scoring 3 goals in only 6 shots on goal. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/usa-netherlands-world-cup-qatar-christian-pulisic-11670087076 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/usa-netherlands-world-cup-usmnt-pulisic-11670093159 .