Healthcare affordability continues to drop: https://news.yahoo.com/americas-dysfunctional-health-care-system-burying-vulnerable-households-130318913.html . 30% of Americans say they can’t afford health care if they needed it today. 42% are concerned about affording health care in the next year. And 18% of households have medical debt that has been referred to a collection agency.
Omicron stress builds: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/doctors-lament-exhausting-omicron-wave-were-trying-to-juggle-a-million-things-at-once-230259242.html . Note the comment that the current delay in turning around testing results makes them clinically useless. We’ve dealt with this problem regularly for over a year. We need to have a reliable processing system in place.
Once again, Midwest hospitals fear an Omicron surge will overwhelm them: https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2021-12-23/overwhelmed-u-s-midwest-hospitals-prepare-for-worst-with-omicron . More hospital stress nationwide: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/-never-going-away-covid-continues-delay-medical-care-hospitals-nationw-rcna9658 .
Christmas Eve failure to launch as Omicron hits flight crews: https://abcnews.go.com/Business/airlines-cancel-holiday-flights-due-omicron-impacts-crews/story?id=81923547 . Think of all the families getting together for the first time in 2 years, and perhaps being Omicron-ed out of their visit. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/united-delta-cancel-some-flights-as-omicron-spreads-11640308603 .
Should the quarantine period be reduced for essential workers?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/calls-mount-to-cut-covid-19-quarantine-period-for-fully-vaccinated-who-test-negative-11640283882 . As you might guess, my view is that this is a variation on the “reopening too soon” theme we’ve played over and over again for the past two years. The need for essential workers should not override the fact that the new variant is incredibly infectious. Just a small percentage of these people spreading Omicron will wipe out any gains of having the entire group back to work a few days earlier.
FDA authorizes Merck oral antiviral: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/fda-authorizes-merck-pill-covid-19-treatment/story?id=81914367 . The authorization, which was expected, comes one day after the authorization of Pfizer’s pill. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-authorizes-mercks-covid-19-pill-for-at-home-treatment-11640270142 .
More Marines discharged for refusal to vaccinate: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-kathleen-hicks-1489e3171dc3cae00bc92c996316c76d .
When should you test for COVID?: https://www.today.com/health/health/asymptomatic-covid-19-what-to-do-rcna9207 . Newsletter readers know this stuff, but the article may be useful to send to others during the holidays.
Major drug chains limit COVID test kit purchases: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/amazon-walgreens-cvs-put-purchase-limits-covid-19-tests-rcna9662 . This situation was completely foreseeable, and again we have dropped the ball.
Possible breakthrough in prostate cancer treatment: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10341409/NHS-eyes-revolutionary-pill-HALVE-risk-death-prostate-cancer-patients.html . But of course, halving the death rate is not a cure.
Biden administration rejects Georgia Medicaid work requirement: https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2021-12-23/white-house-nixes-work-requirement-in-georgia-medicaid-plan .
Ecuador makes COVID vaccination mandatory for most citizens: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-caribbean-ecuador-5332fa5c1fb0e4a0e2b749068ff5326e .
WSJ: Loneliness in Italian nursing homes as COVID continues to restrict visits: https://www.wsj.com/articles/two-years-into-covid-19-pandemic-elderly-italians-again-face-christmas-alone-11640264404 .
Russia’s COVID death toll exceeds 600,000: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-12-23/russias-coronavirus-death-toll-tops-600-000 . Considering Russia’s population is 146 million, their per capita COVID death toll is well above the US toll.
US weekly jobless claims remain steady at 205,000: https://www.usnews.com/news/technology/articles/2021-12-23/alphabets-waymo-says-no-longer-going-to-consumer-electronics-show-in-person-due-to-covid . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/weekly-jobless-claims-12-23-2021-11640205807 .
Is a recession coming?: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/larry-summers-sounds-alarm-bells-for-lurking-recession-us . A recession is possible. However, my view is that the underlying reasons are not those mentioned by Summers. Inflation is measured by year-over-year change, so even if prices grow only slowly from current levels, the year-over-year figures will look bad for another 9 months. I think the risk is associated with Omicron.
Right now, everyone is behaving as if Omicron will sweep in, infect everyone, and then go away, taking all the other COVID variants with it. The pandemic has never behaved in that manner. WHO believes the pandemic will last through 2024. Globally, that seems correct. So even if COVID is reduced in the US, Americans will start traveling the globe again and bring COVID home with them. Thus, even if COVID becomes endemic in the US, we will suffer periodic outbreaks. Except for smallpox, no virus has ever been eliminated from humans.
More on endemicity: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/is-covid-here-to-stay-endemic-rcna9559 . WSJ: We’re just weird: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-marches-toward-endemic-status-in-u-s-as-omicron-spreads-11640255407 . Um, COVID is marching toward endemicity only in the sense that no pandemic lasts forever. We clearly remain in the throes of the pandemic.
Because I expect further waves of COVID during 2022, I also expect more small businesses will close shop. With interest rates rising, that is a recipe for a recession. WSJ: More on small business: https://www.wsj.com/articles/small-businesses-struck-by-omicron-face-hard-choices-before-holidays-11640260803 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-spending-personal-income-inflation-november-2021-11640215420 .
WSJ: Strong M&A activity expected to continue in 2022: https://www.wsj.com/articles/m-a-likely-to-remain-strong-in-2022-as-covid-19-looms-over-business-plans-11640255406 . One driver of M&A activity is that companies view their own stock as “richly valued” (that is, overvalued relative to earnings). So this makes acquisitions seem affordable. It is another indicator that the stock market will correct.
Retreat from Consumer Electronics Show expands: https://www.usnews.com/news/technology/articles/2021-12-23/alphabets-waymo-says-no-longer-going-to-consumer-electronics-show-in-person-due-to-covid .
WSJ: Tesla to restrict in-car gaming following federal probe: https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-to-restrict-in-car-gaming-following-federal-probe-11640292143 . Duh. How could Tesla make this mistake?
WSJ: NBA’s Omicron All-Stars: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nba-omicron-covid-variant-christmas-11640233815 . However, this is not a recipe for quality basketball.
Joan Didion passes: https://apnews.com/article/entertainment-arts-and-entertainment-joan-didion-26c0f31d849f9303e9a6a782db840775 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/writer-joan-didion-writer-who-captured-turbulent-times-has-died-11640280296 .