WSJ: Gender differences in COVID-19 mortality: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-burden-falls-heavily-on-middle-aged-men-11604313002 . Much of this article is not news to actuaries or regular readers. There has been regular comment here on women’s advantage with a second X chromosome. A new mention in this article is the role of estrogen in moderating the immune system’s response.
Kid’s COVID-19 cases set record last week: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/more-61-000-children-got-covid-19-last-week-record-n1245851 . Children’s infections now exceed 850,000. Good thing they’re immune.
Birx warns we are entering deadliest phase of pandemic: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/birx-urges-stepped-up-coronavirus-response-warning-of-most-deadly-phase-of-this-pandemic-report-11604372420 .
COVID-19 skin disorders for long-haulers: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-11-02/for-some-survivors-covid-toes-rashes-can-linger-for-months . There are some interesting details in this article, including average length of symptoms. Cytokines are involved in inflammatory response: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2785020/ .
Millions of Americans suffer from “election stress disorder”: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/election-eve-country-just-unbelievably-stressed-out-n1245841 . Another illness from 2020, this too shall pass.
WSJ: Vitamin D: https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-vitamin-d-help-fight-covid-19-11604326204 . If you’re taking a multivitamin, you’re getting Vitamin D.
WSJ: Consultants reap millions in COVID-19 contracts: https://www.wsj.com/articles/states-hire-consultants-for-covid-19-help-with-mixedand-expensiveresults-11604313683 . The fundamental reason for using consultants here is to achieve rapid response which state government structures are often not built for. Reprogramming of state unemployment systems for new claims payment rules has been a source of major delay. Distribution of business aid has also had management issues. Complexity has been the enemy of both speed and oversight in federal help so far.
Fauci crushes Trump in COVID-19 poll: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/2020-election-polls-voters-approve-more-of-fauci-than-trump-on-coronavirus.html .
WSJ: European unity tested: https://www.wsj.com/articles/european-unity-is-tested-by-threats-from-russia-turkey-11604316401 .
WSJ: Rental car companies revive: https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-more-americans-hitting-the-road-for-travel-rental-car-companies-revive-11604317493 .
Obama goes off in Georgia: https://news.yahoo.com/obama-georgia-rally-trump-senate-perdue-ossoff-loeffler-warnock-213700526.html . “It’s either your senators or your health care.”
Politico (no surprise) pours out articles on Election Eve: Final election forecast: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/02/final-election-forecast-biden-trump-senate-433804 . State-by-state polling information for 14 close states: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/02/what-the-final-polls-say-about-the-trump-biden-race-433888 . Biden team moves to shut down Trump election claims: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/02/trump-biden-election-campaign-claims-433810 .
Record early voting continues: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html . As of 11:59 pm Eastern 11/2, 98.8 million votes have been cast, 63.1 million by mail and 35.7 million in person. For states reporting party affiliation, 21.6 million Democrats and 14.6 million Republicans have voted. The (final) Democratic advantage in early voting is 7.0 million in the 22 reporting states.
Projections have been that 150 to 160 million will vote in this year’s election. Even at 160 million, 98.8 million represents almost 62% of the total vote. Tomorrow (the day you read this) is Election Day. WSJ: More or less: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mail-balloting-is-fueling-historic-early-voting-in-the-2020-election-11602591220 . This is “more or less” because WSJ just updates this article every day, but with limited care.
Trump’s plan to declare victory on Election Night: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523866-trump-plans-to-declare-victory-if-he-takes-election-night-lead-axios . At the moment, that appears unlikely. Biden has small leads in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. Florida is near tossup (Biden leads but there are voter suppression issues), and Biden has a small deficit in Texas. Arizona has been counting mailed ballots for two weeks, and is likely to announce relatively complete returns Election Night. Pennsylvania will be delayed: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/7-pennsylvania-counties-wait-until-after-election-day-to-count-mail-ballots/ .
Still nervous? Here’s Nate Silver (transcript) on predicting this election: https://www.vox.com/21538214/nate-silver-538-2020-forecast-2016-trump-biden-election-podcast .
The ultimate question is turnout. Record early voting appears to favor Democrats. However, many other questions remain. Among them are postal delays, Trump’s misinformation and his encouragement of intimidation and violence. The Supreme Court has also added to the uncertainty: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/28/us/supreme-court-pennsylvania-north-carolina-absentee-ballots.html .
Now we count. If the Electoral College is close, we litigate. Stay tuned.