First quarter Omicron surge expected: https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/12/25/22848343/omicron-variant-surge-january-april-cdc-predictions . Personally, I believe the surge has already started. Christmas travel will reinforce it, and January will see a significant surge. But there is absolutely no evidence that this will be the last surge. COVID comes in waves. That will continue until vaccinations increase. However, oral antivirals may significantly reduce severe illness in the unvaccinated once supplies are adequate. Best current estimate for that supply seems to be three months. More: https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/25/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html .
WSJ: More on New York’s struggle to combat COVID: https://www.wsj.com/articles/governments-weigh-mitigation-versus-containment-as-they-wrestle-with-omicron-11640437456 . The article also provides the latest global news on COVID.
France, Italy see 3 consecutive days of record COVID cases: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20211226_06/ .
WSJ: Latin America now a world leader in vaccinations: https://www.wsj.com/articles/latin-america-is-now-a-world-leader-in-vaccinations-11640428207 . We continue to receive clear indicators that anti-vaccination disinformation in the US is killing people in huge numbers.
Flight cancellations continue on Christmas: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-health-business-travel-e08ef1ae7825361486b2d3eb404d5381 .
Health benefits of drinking: https://bestlifeonline.com/news-drinks-heart-attack-risk/ . My sense is that very limited drinking (say, 3 drinks or less per week) involves limited risk and could have some health benefits. However, much more than that becomes murky. I can’t really see pursuing drinking for a health benefit based on current evidence.
WSJ: Pope Francis laments pandemic of loneliness: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pope-francis-in-christmas-message-laments-pandemic-of-loneliness-11640431162 . I hear from many people who say the pandemic has altered them because of the lack of social contact. We should be paying increasing attention on how to come out of the pandemic with strengthened mental health.
So far, 35 of the House’s 435 members have announced their retirement: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-lifestyle-health-business-travel-e08ef1ae7825361486b2d3eb404d5381 . There may be some truth in this analysis, but we really don’t know. The announced number is 8% of the total, which qualifies as normal turnover. That 23 of those retirees are Democrats probably means these people do not expect the Democrats to hold the House and do not want to be in the minority. However, many of these seats are likely safe Democratic or Republican seats, so the particular seat involved may not switch to the other party.
Also, because redistricting is occurring because of the 2020 census, some seats have been gerrymandered to be more favorable to the other party. Yes, incumbents typically have an advantage, and so their departure increases opportunity for the other party. But more careful analysis is necessary to really project a headcount. As polling has been unusually unreliable in the past two cycles, elections may just be more difficult to predict now. I think the key determining factor for 2022 will be turnout of your voters.
Webb telescope launches: https://www.wsj.com/articles/james-webb-telescopes-complicated-launch-has-astronomers-nervously-waiting-11640428205 . The biggest stress point comes in two weeks, when the telescope must follow a complicated unfolding procedure to become operational.
Best wishes for the remainder of the holiday weekend!