Defining COVID deaths: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-nightly/2021/10/21/what-counts-as-a-covid-death-494786? . As this topic is of intense interest both to actuaries and the general public, reporting on this topic often lacks rigor to the point of being misleading, so here is a reorganization of the discussion in the article:
- With over 750,000 deaths in the US and 5 million globally, there is no question that some deaths are misclassified. It is also unquestionable that global deaths have been underreported, because (a) many people die in rural settings with no access to medical treatment; (b) some governments have poor reporting capacity or make a political choice to underreport; and (c) in some places people attach a stigma to dying from COVID and therefore choose to report the death as from another cause.
- In the US, there is also no question that deaths have been underreported. Reasons (a), (b) and (c) also apply in the US to varying degrees. For example, there is no question that deaths were underreported in the initial surge in the greater New York area. Hospitals ran out of beds. People were dying at home without ever being tested. And many people avoided the hospitals for fear of contracting COVID, even though they had no diagnosis for their illness. New York, New Jersey and other states have revised their figures upwards retroactively. Those adjustments often appear conservative.
- Actuaries and other who perform mortality analysis typically turn to analysis of “excess deaths” in this situation. To illustrate, if the US typically experiences 2.8 million deaths annually (that was the figure for each of the years 2017, 2018 and 2019) but experienced 3.25 million deaths in 2020, the “excess deaths” would be 450,000. The CDC attributes 375,000 deaths to COVID in 2020, which is an upward revision of their original figure of 345,000. CDC attribution of cause of death is typically based on an examination of death certificate data. However, the pandemic has created a difficult analytic environment for them.
- Any global death analysis (COVID or otherwise) must be done by considering data country by country. In general, “excess deaths” is the best measure of COVID deaths because it is least subject to misinformation or manipulation. Based on the data I have seen, 450,000 is a reasonable estimate of US excess deaths in 2020. I believe that to be a more accurate estimate of US COVID deaths for 2020 than the CDC figure of 375,000. And there is a very good argument for increasing the 450,000 another 50%, to 675,000.
- Analysis of 2021 data may help us further refine our understanding of global and US reporting on the pandemic.
The cost of being unvaccinated is going up: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/unvaccinated-your-health-care-costs-might-be-going-up-soon-11634767131 . And obviously, this fails to mention the costs of actually getting COVID, which are well beyond financial costs.
Jennifer Lopez and “others” rush to get booster to J&J shot: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/i-was-the-first-recipients-of-johnson-and-johnson-shot-rush-to-get-boosters/ar-AAPRQLY?li=BBnb7Kz . Well, not THE Jennifer Lopez, who’s 52, not 58. And no solid information on how many people did rush out for the boosters. We do learn that a couple in their 70’s is rushing out to get … another shot of J&J. They had no adverse reaction to the first shot, while others they know who took the other vaccines did have some reaction. Apparently no one mentioned to them that the reaction often reflects the stimulation of an immune reaction.
This does not feel like the usual quality of Washington Post reporting. Maybe Bezos is focusing available funds on the space tourist gig.
WSJ: 12-year-old diabetic changes Mexico: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-12-year-old-girl-sparks-debate-on-covid-19-vaccines-for-kids-in-mexico-11634990403 . This young lady stood up for herself, so 1 million vulnerable children received vaccines for COVID from the Mexican government. Bravo!
The massive COVID wave in Russia continues to worsen: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-europe-health-russia-pandemics-365dbc84acc12aeda668f6db846b918b . As readers know, this wave has continued to grow for weeks. It is inaccurate to refer to this situation as a “spike”.
COVID cases rise in Germany: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-10-23/german-covid-19-infections-at-highest-since-mid-may .
The short history of Moderna: https://www.wsj.com/articles/theunlikelyoutsiders-who-won-the-race-for-a-covid-19-vaccine-ugur-sahin-stephane-bancel-moderna-biontech-11634932219 .
WSJ: Xi’s property tax trial will go forward: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-plots-property-tax-trials-as-it-targets-speculation-11634998929 . 1.4 billion people live in China. So does President Xi Jinping. A total of about 1 person in China thinks a property tax is a good idea right now. That person is President Xi. So the trial proceeds.
The OJ insurrection “War Room” at the Willard Hotel to derail the January 6 vote certification: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10123821/New-details-emerge-war-room-meetings-DCs-Willard-hotel-ahead-Jan-6.html . It’s hard to dream up this kind of insanity. If you know the Willard, it’s across the street from the White House/ Treasury complex. Why did they have to be so close to the White House?