CDC director says current COVID death surge is likely from Delta, not Omicron: https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2022-01-12/u-s-covid-hospitalizations-up-about-33-deaths-up-about-40-over-past-week-cdc-chief . More: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/omicron-covid-deaths-rise-many-are-still-delta-cdc-says-rcna11924 . I suspect this is wrong, but there are too many data questions to be sure. Earlier in the pandemic, deaths lagged cases by about two weeks. Recall that Omicron was first detected in South Africa in samples dated November 11. Omicron was said to be 73% of all US cases for the week ending December 18. But CDC revised that figure to 22.5%: https://www.verywellhealth.com/omicron-dominant-covid-variant-united-states-5214211 . Still, CDC said Omicron was dominant in the US for the week ended December 25. In that case, we are now more than 2 weeks out from Omicron’s dominance. To verify Dr. Walensky’s impression, we’d need reliable numbers week by week for each of the two variants. Good luck with that.
WSJ: Our take on hospitalization data: https://www.wsj.com/articles/will-record-omicron-cases-cause-a-surge-in-the-severely-ill-scientists-look-for-signs-11641996003 .
States enact emergency measures to address hospitalization surge: https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/12/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html .
WSJ: Biden administration to expedite COVID treatment drugs as Omicron surge grows: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-seeks-to-boost-availability-of-covid-19-treatments-as-hospitalizations-rise-11641984634 .
FDA extends shelf life of Florida test kits: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/589310-fda-extends-shelf-life-for-millions-of-expired-coronavirus-test-kits-in . DeMentis has been roundly criticized for this screw-up. Now it turns out the tests originally expired in September, and the FDA had already extended their shelf life.
WSJ: Red Cross fights blood shortage with Super Bowl ticket lottery: https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-cross-facing-blood-shortage-offers-donors-chance-to-win-super-bowl-2022-tickets-11642014510 .
The nature of contagiousness: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/covid-test-positive-not-contagious_l_61ddc690e4b061afe3b8f512 . Among the many problems with the messaging response to the pandemic is the idea that we can draw bright, effective lines around every problem that comes up. It seems helpful to think of contagiousness as a bell curve distribution (it may well be, but that’s beside the point). Let’s assume that half of all people are no longer infectious 4 days after initial infections, 95% are no longer infectious after 8 days, and 100% are no longer infectious after 12 days. When is the right point to end isolation of infectious people?
In this example, 12 days is the optimum point to end isolation if what you’re trying to do is stop spread. If you are compromising for economic or other purposes, the “right” answer could be 8 to 10 days. Five days makes no sense. The best mitigation strategy would be to require a negative test before ending isolation, and also to require mask wearing for the next 7 days for those who test negative (the positives return to isolation). You can see immediately that without 100% compliance, the virus will escape again, and we are unlikely to achieve 100% compliance.
So here’s an alternative. We announce that in 30 days, everyone goes into isolation for14 days. This gives people a chance to stock their cupboards and otherwise prepare. Some essential services continue (police, fire, utility service, emergency food deliveries), but those people are tested daily and there is rigorous contact tracing. In our example, the pandemic ends in the country in 44 days (30 +14).
We would seal our borders to everyone except those from countries that have completed a similar lockdown. Similarly, Americans could only visit those countries; we would exclude violators from the US unless they submit to a 14-day quarantine on return.
I bring this up because we’re entering the third year of the pandemic, with cases running well over a million a day. The total 14 day shutdown in my view is superior to the response of governments around the world. Whenever we get out of this pandemic, we must think creatively on how to stop the next one.
Immunocompromised people, who can harbor the virus for far longer than 12 or 14 days, represent a hole in this protocol. Those people would require a negative test to leave quarantine. However, we can work out the details . We just need to plan it out in advance of the next potential pandemic.
Fact checkers fault YouTube for spreading COVID misinformation: https://thehill.com/policy/technology/589466-fact-checkers-fault-youtube-for-allowing-coronavirus-misinformation-spread . There is simply no doubt that the fact checkers are correct and YouTube is screwing up. Even with the massive problem of disinformation in this country, the fact checkers are almost certainly correct that the problem is greater in countries where English is not the predominant language.
West Virginia governor tests positive for COVID: https://www.wsj.com/articles/west-virginia-gov-jim-justice-feels-extremely-unwell-after-testing-positive-for-covid-19-11641997782 .
Gender bias in surgery results: https://people.com/health/women-are-32-more-likely-to-die-after-an-operation-if-their-surgeon-is-male-study-finds/ . The bottom line: a 0.3% difference in mortality on 650,000 female patients is 1,950 additional deaths. The possible explanations that come to mind: (1) the male doctors may be performing more risky procedures than the female doctors; (2) the male docs may be on average older than the female docs, and therefore lack some of the latest training; (3) the male docs are in fact less careful with female patients. Follow-up research seems obligatory.
Year-over-year inflation hits 7% in December: https://news.yahoo.com/inflation-biden-administration-134727117.html . Leaving politics aside, the supply chain disruption caused by the pandemic drives current inflation. Focus on solving those problems, then go after any price-gouging. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-7-inflation-today-is-far-different-than-in-1982-11642012166 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-react-inflation-expected-to-cool-this-year-11642025640 .
Orange Julius hangs up on NPR interview when pressed on the Big Lie: https://news.yahoo.com/trump-cuts-npr-interview-short-election-lies-mcconnell-loser-boosters-gutless-160442433.html . Apparently OJ assumes none of the GOP base listens to NPR. That might be true.
India Hindu festival to proceed with hundreds of thousands of attendees as Omicron spreads: https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-covid-19-cases-rise-in-india-hundreds-of-thousands-to-attend-hindu-festival-11641996053 . This looks like a potential Guinness record smasher for superspreader events.
China’s COVID Zero policy tested by Omicron: https://www.wsj.com/articles/omicron-puts-chinas-zero-covid-strategy-to-its-toughest-test-11642003293 .
Kazakhstan upheaval: https://www.wsj.com/articles/kazakhstan-investigates-how-peaceful-demonstrations-turned-violent-11641991426 .