News for March 13 — COVID Unknowns Still Elude Medicine

COVID unknowns still elude medicine: WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-do-we-actually-know-about-covid-19-not-enough-ec1dcafe . Centrally, the US continues have about 400 COVID deaths daily. That’s almost 150,000 deaths annually. We must bring that number down, but medicine so far has not seen a clear path to attain that goal.

WSJ: Pfizer finalizes Seagen deal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-agrees-to-buy-seagen-for-43-billion-180a9117 . Antitrust scrutiny will follow. More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizer-overpays-for-seagen-but-whos-counting-695be747 .

WSJ: Ukraine continues defense of Bakhmut: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-keeps-up-defense-of-bakhmut-as-zelensky-lauds-soldier-executed-by-russians-9818f1ec . Spring offensives planned by both sides: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-gird-for-a-decisive-spring-campaign-after-a-bloody-winter-a3beef16 . Meanwhile, Xi will speak to Zelensky for the first time since the war began: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-to-speak-with-zelensky-meet-next-week-with-putin-f34be6be .

US looks to turn up pressure on Russian oligarchs supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-sanctions-oligarchs-money-laundering-766fa10695ee7bb20175a474028ee562 .

WSJ: Ukraine war hurt Russia’s arms industry: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias-war-in-ukraine-hurts-its-arms-industry-creates-openings-for-rivals-c25321c6 . Many buyers look elsewhere.

HSBC buys SVB’s UK subsidiary for 1 pound: https://www.wsj.com/articles/silicon-valley-banks-u-k-arm-to-be-bought-by-hsbc-82e37806 .

GOP senators pushed for looser banking rules one week before SVB collapse: https://news.yahoo.com/gop-senators-pushed-to-keep-banking-rules-loose-one-week-before-svb-collapse-152706948.html . We have to look at the bright side here. This should be the end of Tim Scott’s presidential run before it begins. A president has to master all issues foreign and domestic. By contrast, Scott, as the ranking Republican on the Senate Banking Committee needs to focus on the work of that committee. Not only did he completely miss the issues here, he actively opposed and continues to oppose the only sensible solution. Tim Scott probably is not qualified for his limited duties in the Senate, but he is demonstrably not qualified for higher office.

Senator Kennedy says Senators should talk about raising Social Security retirement age: https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3896534-gop-senator-says-lawmakers-should-talk-about-changing-retirement-age/ . What happened to the applause at the State of the Union that Social Security and Medicare would not be touched? Is this Kennedy’s way of taking the pressure off Tim Scott? Maybe he should name his proposal “The Work ‘Til You Die” bill …

Seriously, the age has been raised before, and it could be considered in the future. However, the idea has now been given a bad name by raising it at this time …

WSJ: Mitch McConnell leaves hospital for in-patient rehabilitation facility: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mitch-mcconnell-released-from-hospital-but-will-enter-rehabilitation-facility-1b0ff11f .

SVB and Signature Bank failures the second and third largest in US history: https://news.yahoo.com/regulators-seize-signature-bank-in-third-largest-us-bank-failure-231404695.html . Just for the record, these two failures are a very significant banking crisis. The quick action by the Biden administration over the weekend has halted the spread of the crisis. Since all banks pay into the Deposit Insurance Fund to cover this type of loss, tighter rules must apply to keep the DIF affordable for the industry. Tim Scott parroting words from SVB in its prior lobbying efforts for loose rules demonstrates he is not paying attention and cannot think his way out of a paper bag.

Another place for blame: Venture capitalists: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/venture-capitalists-almost-took-whole-231238271.html . Mr. Siebel has a valid point. The concentration of these funds in one place led to SVB’s very unique failure. But they certainly were a mismanaged bank, as the concentration in long-term bonds was a situation they should have known to unwind when the Fed began raising rates.

WSJ: FDIC plans another SVB auction: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fdic-planning-another-svb-auction-d63c8929 . Aren’t all the depositors pulling their money and thrilled to get out? What’s left to auction?

Meanwhile, the Journal’s expert misses the point yet again: https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-magical-accounting-might-save-banks-but-doom-rate-increases-87ff7b32 . (1) SVB failed because it was poorly managed, period. (2) Any bank taking loans collateralized by its bonds under the new program has to pay them back. The idea is to create a reserve to prevent runs, and it was too late for that for SVB. So SVB could not participate in the new program because they already sold their bonds at a loss and defaulted. (3) Apparently Mr. Macintosh continues working for a Murdoch company because he wouldn’t find work anywhere else. More on the new lending program: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-rolls-out-emergency-measures-to-prevent-banking-crisis-ba4d7f98 .

Another Journal “expert” joins the wrong-answer fun: https://www.wsj.com/articles/were-banks-just-bailed-out-by-the-government-6b0a582f . In 2008, banks did receive a bailout after designation as too big to fail. Here, stockholders lost everything and FDIC fired management. That’s not a bailout, you dimwit.

WSJ: KPMG also missed the point: https://www.wsj.com/articles/kpmg-faces-scrutiny-for-audits-of-svb-and-signature-bank-42dc49dd . Does anyone understand interest? By the end of 2022, the Fed had already significantly raised interest rates and the bonds were underwater. Further, deposits peaked in the first quarter of 2022 and declined thereafter. It is dead obvious that liquidity was under pressure – as in, dead. The shareholders may well sue KPMG.

WSJ: Global consequences of US bank failures: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-bank-collapses-add-to-pressure-on-global-central-banks-748ff622 .

Tuesday’s long-awaited news: Inflation data: https://news.yahoo.com/inflation-data-arrives-at-critical-moment-for-fed-after-bank-failures-jobs-data-192322720.html . I agree that the choices are 25 and 50 basis points. Monday’s bond market action defies reality. The 1 year US Treasury dropped 65 basis points; the 2 year dropped 60 basis points. The bond market is saying that Fed rate hikes are over, and the Fed will begin cutting later this year. Neither of those things is going to happen. So a hot inflation reading could tank the stock and bond markets tomorrow. The opposing view: https://www.thestreet.com/markets/fed-rate-bets-crumble-amid-svb-fallout-2-year-note-yields-plunge . More on Monday’s bond rally: https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-crisis-powers-historic-bond-rally-d245641f . More on the inflation data: https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-report-arrives-as-fed-confronts-bank-failures-5f0e10ae .

WSJ: Well-paid renters change the US housing market: https://www.wsj.com/articles/three-million-u-s-households-making-over-150-000-are-still-renting-48bd48e4 . Three million households making over $150,000 annually rent. I agree with the renters who believe now is a poor time to buy. However, they are changing the rental market in ways that make things tougher for lower wage earners.

WSJ: Pope Francis has changed the course of the Catholic Church in 10 years at the helm: https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-10-years-pope-francis-has-disrupted-the-catholic-church-acd228f1 .

Mother of the Year calls police when she can’t tell her infant twins apart: https://www.today.com/parents/moms/mom-twins-calls-police-cant-tell-apart-rcna74076 . Ay caramba!

Former Colorado Representative Pat Schroeder passes at 82: https://www.npr.org/2023/03/14/1163292453/former-rep-pat-schroeder-a-pioneer-for-womens-rights-dies-at-82 . Interestingly, she was born in Portland, Oregon …