COVID subvariant XBB dominates Singapore: https://www.prevention.com/health/a41648659/xbb-covid-omicron-subvariant-immunity/ . Like other recent subvariants, XBB is highly contagious and evades existing COVID antibodies. Note that this subvariant went from 22% to 54% of cases in Singapore in one week.
Scientists develop new, lethal COVID strain: https://www.yahoo.com/video/boston-university-researchers-claim-developed-195236897.html . Why is this research being performed?
The future of COVID vaccinations: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-ceo-not-everyone-will-need-an-annual-covid-booster-161914016.html .
WSJ: US booster campaign still lags: https://www.wsj.com/articles/many-americans-ignore-covid-boosters-as-winter-variants-loom-11666004403 .
Yankee Candle as COVID predictor: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/yankee-candle-reviews-covid-surges-study-experts-211827159.html . Good grief! Yes, the advent of home testing has trashed reporting of COVID cases. No, Yankee Candle reviews are not a reliable predictor of COVID surges. This silliness reinforces the idea that only serious illness is an appropriate measure of the pandemic. The main risk remains virus mutation, which is determined by global viral load. Therefore, asymptomatic and mild case spread remains a serious concern.
The math may show a correlation, but a sample size of 9,832 Google reviews over a three-year period is woefully small. It’s under 9 reviews a day. A rise of a quarter of a percentage point over time is statistically insignificant (0.25% = 1/400). The real driver of this “scientific study” is an associate professor of political science trying to gain fame on the Internet. The larger problem is the thirst for “different” content under the guise of actual information.
Over one million Americans ration insulin due to cost: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2342787-over-a-million-people-in-the-us-ration-insulin-because-of-high-costs/ . This is simply appalling, and traces to price-gouging by the drug companies.
WSJ: Infant formula supply problems continue: https://www.wsj.com/articles/families-still-struggle-to-find-baby-formula-nearly-one-year-after-shortages-began-11666004401 .
Abortion micro-nation: https://news.yahoo.com/how-a-high-seas-micronation-became-a-haven-for-women-seeking-abortions-150108313.html . The world just keeps getting weirder. Also, sharp-eyed readers with powerful memories suspect, correctly, that Sealand has appeared in the newsletter before. Weirder and weirder …
New UK finance minister erases the tax plan of his predecessor: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/17/uks-new-finance-minister-sets-out-.html . I can understand why the UK market would rally on this news. But the US market? There’s no obvious benefit here. This looks to be another bear market rally. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-market-woes-keep-mounting-spreading-pain-to-stocks-11665951139 .
Bloomberg model says US will have a recession within 12 months: https://nypost.com/2022/10/17/us-recession-forecast-hits-100-as-inflation-rages-midterms-loom/ . Again, all current economic information points toward recession. When you put those inputs into a competent model, of course the model predicts recession. WSJ: We try to explain the stock market’s move up today: https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-10-17-2022-11666001533 . Earnings look backward. As one naysayer notes, global recession is ahead.
WSJ: Bond prices continue to drop: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bond-market-woes-keep-mounting-spreading-pain-to-stocks-11665951139 . Of course bond prices continue to drop. To repeat, when the Fed raises rates, that directly raises bond yields. The Fed will continue to raise. So, by definition, bond prices must fall as yields go up. There are plenty of economic assumptions to debate. This is not one of them. And by the way, the yield curve remains inverted. So the yields most likely to rise are the long-term yields. Those 10 and 30 year Treasuries are very risky to own right now.
WSJ: Xi’s goal of doubling China’s economy in 15 years: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-economy-xi-jinping-ideology-11666016306 . While I agree with the thrust of this article, it is always troubling when the writer does not understand basic mathematics. You don’t need estimates by “policy-making officials” to conclude that Xi’s doubling goal requires growth of 5% annually. Actually, 4.75% is a better number, as 4.75% compounded over 15 years is 2.00590.
However, as we’ve said for some time, the problems in China’s real estate market require restructuring of that market, which is 25% of China’s GNP. That, along with the other problems in the article, suggest average annual GDP growth of 3% is more realistic. And 3% compounded over 15 years is 1.55797. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/xis-contradictory-vision-for-china-11666024748 . The Journal completely misses the mark here. The point is that the world is changing from globalization to “two axes” of economic supply chains. And the West has a massive upper hand in that split.
WSJ: Australian casino operator hit with $62 million fine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/australian-casino-operator-hit-with-62-million-fine-in-reckoning-for-gambling-industry-11665998202 . You have to wonder what kind of money the casino was pulling in with these highly questionable practices. There appears to be considerable evidence of large money-laundering activities.
New York AG finally accomplishes service in Orange Julius Organization $250 million fraud suit: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/donald-trump-finally-gets-served-250-million-ny-fraud-lawsuit-after-3-weeks-and-a-court-order/ar-AA134fnJ?ocid=weather-verthp-feeds . Good grief. Evading service is really “bush league”. Once again, Rule No. 1 is, Don’t piss off the judge. OJ’s attorneys are off on the wrong foot here, and it is hard to see a legal strategy that would justify this. For example, if the attorneys were working to reorganize the company in Florida, this bad faith would work against them in most circumstances. That is, any Florida filings would also be seen as bad faith.
Meanwhile, OJ continues ripping off US taxpayers for room charges for Secret Service agents: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/17/politics/trump-secret-service-hotel-rates . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-properties-charged-excessive-rates-to-government-house-democrats-say-11666026185 .
Georgia spending on Senate race exceeds $14 million: https://georgiarecorder.com/2022/10/06/warnock-walker-ride-eye-popping-fundraising-totals-into-georgias-senate-election-homestretch/ . I was shocked to hear this figure on Meet the Press Sunday, but the article included here suggests spending could exceed $30 or even $40 million by Election Day. This is one Senate race, albeit the most expensive in the country. On PBS Monday evening, the expected total spending on the 2022 midterm was estimated at $9.8 billion. These are phenomenal amounts.
To get a better handle on the Georgia race, I looked back at the spending for the two Georgia Senate races in 2020 (Warnock has to run again as 2020 was a special election). Those were the two most expensive Senate races in history, with the Ossoff-Perdue race costing $510 million and the Warnock-Loeffler race costing $363 million: https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2021/02/2020-cycle-cost-14p4-billion-doubling-16/ . Wait, what? Why are these figures so large? Well, both of these elections went to January runoffs, and those two races decided control of the Senate.
Also, these figures include total spending, with outside PACs somewhat outspending the campaigns themselves. So my initial figure of $30 to $40 million may well exceed $100 million when the outside PAC’s are included and the election is complete. The annual salary of a US Senator is $174,000. We really have quite the system …
Walker admits he wrote the check: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/-check-walker-acknowledges-giving-700-ex-denies-claim-knew-was-abortio-rcna52252 . Anyone who votes for this … person … to occupy a US Senate seat is a threat to American democracy. Yet it remains possible that a majority of Georgia voters will fit themselves into this description.
DOJ recommends jail time for “Bad faith” Bannon: https://www.yahoo.com/gma/doj-seeks-6-months-prison-125000789.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/steve-bannon-should-get-six-months-in-prison-government-says-11666019371 .
Drone attacks on Kyiv: https://www.aol.com/news/intense-fighting-flares-ukraines-donetsk-002101856-113325127.html . These fit the pattern of ongoing attacks on civilian targets. As Putin has clearly committed war crimes, apparently Russia will continue to act without restraint until stopped. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/kyiv-hit-by-drone-attacks-as-russia-targets-infrastructure-11665999746 .
Another Putin ally dies suddenly at 46: https://www.cityam.com/moscows-elite-in-shock-as-another-close-putin-ally-suddenly-dies-gazproms-wonderkid-and-kremlin-insider-nikolay-petrunin/ .
WSJ: Military looks at retrofits for B-52 fleet: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-pushes-to-keep-b-52-bombers-going-as-pressure-from-china-grows-11665944038 . How shocking that the US is still flying B-52’s.
The start of World War III?: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economist-nouriel-roubini-in-some-sense-world-war-iii-has-already-started-204849544.html . While Roubini seems to be just another Internet provocateur (see Yankee Candle, above), I did point out yesterday that Xi’s comments at the Communist Party congress suggest China will try to absorb Taiwan in the next 5 years.