COVID rebound reflects immune response: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/covid-rebound-after-pfizer-treatment-likely-due-robust-immune-response-study-2022-10-06/ . Surprisingly, this study suggests Paxlovid’s COVID rebound reflects a strong immune response, not a weak one. However, the study involved a total of 14 participants, so it may not be the final word on this issue.
Long COVID hinders daily activities: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-10-06/cdc-majority-of-adults-with-long-covid-19-report-trouble-performing-daily-activities . This remains a major risk of the disease.
Nearly 4 million Americans received COVID booster last week: https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2022-10-06/nearly-4-million-americans-received-updated-covid-boosters-last-week-cdc . This pathetically slow pace increases our risk of a new COVID wave.
Another COVID wave brews in Europe: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/covid-wave-looms-europe-booster-campaign-makes-slow-start-2022-10-06/ . The booster campaign there is also off to a slow start.
Follow-up on Medicare Advantage discussion yesterday: An alert reader pointed out that another reason to choose traditional Medicare is that many Medicare Advantage plans have poor in-network coverage out-of-state, so frequent travelers need to beware. Thanks, keep those comments coming.
WSJ: US will screen travelers from Uganda for Ebola: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-orders-air-travelers-from-uganda-screened-for-ebola-11665080513 . Just note that this is preventative border control. This is sound public health policy. We should also prepare to do aggressive contact tracing if this disease appears here.
Hurricane Fiona boosts jobless claims: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-more-than-expected-2022-10-06/ . It is apparent that Hurricane Ian will do the same next week. So the interpretation of economic data will get more difficult over the next few weeks. Meanwhile, WSJ either failed to figure this out or chose to just mislead to support a Fed rate hike slowdown: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-jobless-claims-rose-last-week-but-remain-historically-low-11665061396 . It’s sad to see what has happened to WSJ under Murdoch’s ownership.
WSJ: Bank of Canada remains focused on inflation control: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-canadas-macklem-says-more-to-be-done-on-taming-inflation-11665072152 .
WSJ: Bank of England slows bond purchases: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-bond-markets-come-under-pressure-again-11665077057 . The antidote to chaos is steadiness. How did BOE screw this up?
Current market volatility: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/06/investing/premarket-trading-stocks . So this makes no sense whatsoever to me. Yes, the markets are currently volatile. Yes, there are some market players looking for any economic data that will justify the Fed changing course. However, the Fed has repeatedly told everyone that inflation is their primary target and they will continue to raise rates until significant progress is made toward the goal of 2% annually: WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-official-says-inflation-is-stubbornly-persistent-justifying-rapid-rate-rises-11665075908 .
These bear market rallies only make sense if the market will rebound rapidly from the bottom. If the bottom is a fairly deep recession, then stocks will be fairly valued at the bottom and will not rebound quickly. As all the data point to a global recession with near certainty, it is hard to see how we escape, or escape quickly.
WSJ: IMF to lower global growth forecast: https://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-to-lower-global-2023-growth-forecast-amid-shocks-to-economy-11665079964 . The IMF viewpoint appears to support my comments in the preceding two paragraphs.
Here is the contrarian case: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-is-going-to-fall-just-as-fast-as-it-rose-and-thats-investors-cue-to-enter-the-stock-market-11665072070 . So what evidence is there that inflation is going to fall as fast as it rose? There is plenty of evidence that it is baked in right now. In my view, the individual points can also be directly refuted. However, just note that there is no mention of the Ukrainian war. Last, note that this guy owns and is touting Nike. Nike dropped 13% last Friday, as it is increasing discounts to reduce inventory. That is not declining inflation; that is pre-recession defensive behavior.
WSJ: Is food inflation moderating?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/conagras-sales-rise-nearly-10-on-higher-prices-11665058222 .
Argentina inflation forecast at 80%: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/16/argentina-hikes-interest-rate-by-550-basis-points-to-75percent-after-inflation-overshoots.html . Again, a global recession is virtually certain. We may also see significant loan defaults by developing countries as interest rates rise.
Hurricane Ian death toll at 126: https://abcnews.go.com/US/multiple-deaths-reported-hurricane-ian-slams-florida/story?id=90693636 . That’s 121 in Florida and 5 in North Carolina.
WSJ: Ukraine’s request for longer-range US missiles: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-appeal-for-longer-range-missiles-presents-fresh-test-of-biden-administration-support-11665083684 .
WSJ: Meanwhile, risks increase around Ukraine’s largest nuclear plant: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-missiles-hit-civilian-targets-in-southeastern-ukraine-11665046368 .
Putin’s private army: The Wagner mercenaries: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/06/europe/wagner-ukraine-struggles-marat-gabidullin-cmd-intl . With the state of the ruble, it makes sense that Russia would pay these soldiers in US dollars.
Russians flee to Alaska to avoid military call-up: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russians-flee-by-boat-to-alaska-after-putin-s-military-mobilization/ar-AA12GrGa?cvid=f12289dac918407980ca4e8b67f08629 . It’s easy to get there – just head toward Sarah Palin’s porch.
Musk’s Twitter deal remains undone: https://www.kktv.com/2022/10/06/musk-lawyers-say-twitter-refusing-new-44b-bid-company/ . Write the check, and the judge will dismiss the trial. Don’t get the deal done, see you in court. The judge has delayed the trial by 11 days: https://apnews.com/article/elon-musk-twitter-inc-technology-business-934a3b2429bed8cfeadfa6567a2e5256 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/twitter-musk-talks-continue-focus-on-financing-litigation-11665082947 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/stabbing-attack-on-las-vegas-strip-leaves-at-least-one-dead-five-injured-11665090765 .
WSJ: The Twitter deal may hammer some large banks: https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musks-revived-twitter-deal-could-saddle-banks-with-big-losses-11665069334 . As interest rates have risen substantially, the debt has dropped in value. Musk has found another way to follow in Orange Julius’ footsteps – sticking others with his financial mistakes.
The January 6 committee schedules its ninth hearing for Thursday, October 13 at 1 pm Eastern, 10 am Pacific: https://apnews.com/article/capitol-siege-elections-presidential-election-2020-congress-772291e2cdffbcaf780088fdef96d38f . This hearing, still expected to be the last, will focus on the Save America PAC, Orange Julius’ fundraising vehicle. The PAC is already under investigation by DOJ. Here are the prior 8 hearings: https://january6th.house.gov/legislation/hearings .
Orange Julius’ sticky fingers: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-classified-documents_n_633f84c6e4b03e8038c79554 . I am so over this disgusting pig of an ex-president. However, I do agree with Lawrence Tribe and the other lawyers in this article that this is another major step toward indicting OJ: https://www.rawstory.com/trump-indictment-doj/ . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-hasnt-returned-all-documents-justice-department-officials-believe-11665107525 . The Journal, as it does all too frequently, misses the important point.
WSJ: Proud Boy pleads guilty to seditious conspiracy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/proud-boys-member-pleads-guilty-to-seditious-conspiracy-11665094486 . As the government proceeds with these serious charges against the Oath Keepers, it now gains a prosecution witness against the Proud Boys’ leaders.
Ben Sasse likely to resign from US Senate for University of Florida presidency: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/06/sasse-expected-to-resign-from-senate-00060812 . Sasse is one of the more sane and stable GOP senators, although unfortunately that is a pretty low bar. This is probably why he is leaving. It also suggests a belief that the GOP will remain in the minority in the Senate for at least the next two years, and his exhaustion in the Orange Julius Party. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/sen-ben-sasse-named-as-top-candidate-for-university-of-florida-post-11665090164 .
Liz Cheney slams GOP’s “Putin wing”: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3675637-cheney-knocks-growing-putin-wing-of-republican-party/ . The idea that any American would support Putin and his invasion of Ukraine is disgusting.
FBI leak that Hunter Biden may be indicted: https://news.yahoo.com/investigators-believe-enough-evidence-charge-185942196.html . It was already no secret what the US House will be doing over the next two years if they regain the majority in November.
This should be the end of Herschel Walker’s campaign: https://apnews.com/article/abortion-2022-midterm-elections-health-georgia-herschel-walker-5ca79a4630445fe0c885cc9d2dd91584 . As we noted before, the abortion story came with hard documentation. Herschel said the story was “a flat-out lie” with no evidence, and that he’d never heard of the woman involved. Now we learn the woman later did have a child with Walker. Anyone who votes for this loser needs to have a big red “L” tattooed on their forehead.
Last night, Colbert had a clip of Newt Gingrich, former House Speaker from Georgia, saying on Fox that Walker was a good candidate because of his relationship with Christ: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/herschel-walker-concussions-newt-gingrich-abortion-defense-1234605663/ . Colbert’s response: What about the incumbent he’s running against, Reverend Raphael Warnock, who was the pastor of Martin Luther King, Jr.’s former church, Ebenezer Baptist in Atlanta? It is everyone’s duty to keep these dishonest GOP slime balls out of political office.
Uvalde school board hires, then fires ex-state trooper who was at the school shooting: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/uvalde-school-district-abruptly-fires-ex-trooper-who-stood-by-during-shooting-after-outcry . This hiring defies belief. I’ve seen the video of her comments that she would have gone in the schoolroom if her child had been in there. The board knew she was under investigation, but hired her anyway. Uvalde citizens should demand a new school board.
Mass stabbing on the Las Vegas Strip: https://apnews.com/article/arrests-las-vegas-7b2019b8c3d2577c701c844af85a9b31 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/stabbing-attack-on-las-vegas-strip-leaves-at-least-one-dead-five-injured-11665090765 .
Thai gunman kills at least 36 in attack on preschoolers’ daycare: https://apnews.com/article/shootings-thailand-84efe7ba76707f4b3d47ee8394c4f24f . The world grows more troubled every day. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/thailand-child-care-center-shooting-leaves-at-least-32-dead-11665045559 .
Biden pardons thousands for “simple possession” of marijuana: https://apnews.com/article/biden-marijuana-government-and-politics-2d5e3d9e2cfbbbe3ee114536738894a8 . This demonstrates the proper use of presidential pardon power. Homework: Contrast this with OJ’s pardon of Roger Stone. Done already? Good, you got the right answer.
WSJ: Nobel Prize in literature goes to France’s Annie Ernaux: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nobel-prize-in-literature-awarded-to-french-author-annie-ernaux-11665054561 .
WSJ: Portland’s most famous advertising wunderkind, Dan Wieden, passes at 77: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ad-executive-dan-wieden-came-up-with-nikes-just-do-it-tagline-11665003057 . Wieden had a major role in making Nike a world-class competitor, and making Phil Knight a multibillionaire.