COVID public health emergency extended: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/3808719-white-house-extends-covid-19-public-health-emergency-once-again/ . Again, despite everyone tiring of this, the pandemic is not over … We are heading into the fourth year of the COVID public health emergency.
Long COVID rarely permanent: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/11/health/long-covid-symptoms-study-wellness/index.html . As the article notes, this study is encouraging, but has limitations. The Israelis do not classify the symptoms in the same way as other countries, so the findings are somewhat difficult to interpret. Also, remember that studies indicate that 30% of COVID sufferers show at least one symptom of long COVID. So suppose that 70% of long COVID cases resolve within one year. That still leaves 9% of COVID patients (30% x 30%) with long COVID cases that last more than a year.
COVID crushes China’s rural east: https://www.yahoo.com/now/total-mess-chinas-rural-east-052139344.html . If you have 1.4 billion people, what’s the big deal if you lose a few million? And if they’re mostly elderly, it saves the government support money … But it’s mass murder, dammit …
COVID variant global mix unknown: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-01-11/who-says-coronavirus-variant-xbb-1-5-may-be-driving-cases . We don’t really know what variants are driving China’s COVID tsunami. That’s a huge problem for the world. More: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-01-11/who-says-china-still-underreports-covid-deaths-despite-providing-more-data .
WSJ: Medicare insulin $35 cost cap: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-new-35-cap-on-insulin-costs-will-work-11673391300 .
Another expert predicts a market decline of over 20% is coming: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/morgan-stanleys-mike-wilson-warns-u-s-stocks-could-slump-another-22-if-recession-arrives-in-2023-11673291083 . As readers know, my view has been for many months than the economic data makes a US recession nearly certain. Further, the market assumes Fed Chairman Powell will not back up his tough talk about driving down inflation. That is a very poor assumption. Powell has not only been consistent but CLEAR that the Fed will take a recession in order to push down inflation toward its 2% target.
Chinese economy faces inflation and weak demand: https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-01-11/china-consumer-inflation-accelerates-in-dec-ppi-falls-with-soft-demand . China has a state-controlled economy. The government is spending money to subdue inflation. As China turns inward, developing countries’ economies suffer. This explains why the World Bank has consistently cut its global economic growth expectations for 2023.
WSJ: How about 3 more years of sticky global inflation?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/persistent-price-pressures-seen-as-top-global-risk-in-2025-11673447666 . There is a whole lot of data and expert opinion saying that the US market’s belief of rapid inflation control is full of … prunes. The market ignores this at its peril. More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-markets-dow-update-01-11-2023-11673438518 .
I patiently remain only 50% invested, with the remainder in a short-term bond ladder where I hold the bonds to maturity. These 3 and 6 month Treasuries currently pay 4.66% and 4.83% annualized interest, respectively. This doesn’t cover inflation, but it removes the risk of long-term bonds, currently paying a 1% lower annual rate due to the yield curve inversion. The Treasury market is quite liquid, so I can sell the entire ladder at will. Also, I expect interest rates to continue to increase over the next 6 months, so this strategy will become even more attractive.
WSJ: FTX’s hunt for assets finds $5 billion: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ftx-says-it-has-located-more-than-5-billion-in-cash-liquid-assets-11673452986 .
Another massive flight disruption as FAA system fails: https://www.aol.com/news/explainer-why-u-flights-were-155025127.html . A corrupted data file apparently blew up the antiquated system: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-flights-grounded-faa-outage-rcna65243 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/faa-suffers-glitch-to-crew-alert-system-potentially-affecting-flights-in-u-s-11673437407 . So this is an FAA safety system with no back-up …
Putin replaces top general for Ukraine war after just 3 months: https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/01/30383078/putins-russia-replaces-top-military-chief-after-just-3-months-as-ukraine-setbacks-mount . One doubts this will stop the war crimes being committed against Ukraine’s civilian population.
Peru anti-government protests spread: https://apnews.com/article/politics-peru-government-protests-and-demonstrations-pedro-castillo-dc226f9881eb3fa77bd2479fdc1d93dd . Yet another uprising develops where the split is between the urban and rural residents of a country, with supporters of the ousted leader attempting to overthrow the government. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/perus-antigovernment-protests-turn-increasingly-deadly-11673466030 .
Second batch of Biden classified documents discovered: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/batch-potentially-classified-biden-documents-discovered/story?id=96376813 . Again, the facts here are quite different from Orange Julius’ refusal to return documents the government knew he had. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/white-house-wont-discuss-classified-documents-found-in-biden-office-11673472481 .
More pressure on George Santos to resign: https://news.yahoo.com/ny-gop-rep-george-santos-resign-from-congress-173325733.html . Santos is a sad reminder of how many current GOP politicians lie through their teeth. The GOP wants him out to remove the reminder. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/george-santos-loses-support-from-long-island-republicans-who-call-on-him-to-resign-11673456409 .
The Georgia fetus exemption: https://news.yahoo.com/georgias-tax-exemption-for-fetuses-comes-with-a-host-of-questions-203650912.html . Let’s look past the article’s focus on “questions” and examine the answers. This legislation results from a cynical political process where politicians pass legislation they do not expect to become law, in order to lie to the voters that they are actually doing something. As the article points out, under the plain reading of the statute, women who are pregnant at 6 weeks but then have a miscarriage or out-of-state abortion are entitled to the deduction.
More broadly, the tax deduction is most valuable to wealthier taxpayers. In Georgia, low-income folks are disproportionately black. So the law provides a financial incentive for the wealthy (mostly white) to have a baby, and thereby discriminates against black children born into lower-income homes. This latter group is the group most in need of the government’s financial blessings. Racism in the South lives on, for sure.
WSJ: Is 5G a big deal? For consumers, not so much: https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-not-just-you-5g-is-a-big-letdown-11673441300 .
Alex Jones’ lawyer smacked down by judge, license suspension begins immediately: https://www.rawstory.com/alex-jones-lawyer-smacked-down-after-asking-judge-to-delay-his-law-license-suspension/ . Does any reader have doubt about why Rule No. 1 is, Don’t piss off the judge? This arrogant so-and-so has received his just desserts …
WSJ: Massive Mega-Millions jackpot: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mega-millions-jackpot-tops-1-billion-see-how-it-ranks-among-the-biggest-prizes-11673357146 .
WSJ: Damar Hamlin discharged from the hospital: https://www.wsj.com/articles/damar-hamlin-update-bills-injury-discharged-11673457321 . More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-is-cardiac-arrest-what-is-cardiac-arrest-commotio-cardis-11672767432 .
Jeff Beck passes unexpectedly at age 78: https://www.yahoo.com/now/guitar-legend-jeff-beck-dies-suddenly-at-age-78-233709137.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jeff-beck-legendary-guitarist-dies-at-78-11673479077 .