COVID permanently damaged heart health: https://apnews.com/article/covid19-long-covid-heart-3dd8f26c663e96bffcc2980830626153 . As the disease continues to transition to endemic status, many prior patients are left with long-term damage. This should convince people to get vaccinated and maintain boosters, but it probably won’t change many closed minds.
Ongoing recession-soft-landing debate: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/08/10/recession-or-soft-landing-2023/70555621007/ .
Meanwhile, China moves toward deflation: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-deflation-2023-what-does-it-mean/ . In addition to the risks mentioned here, remember that China’s growth has been driven by its property sector, which is about 25% of the economy, and the country is significantly overbuilt. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-slips-into-deflation-in-warning-sign-for-world-economy-bbefb179 .
WSJ: Ukrainian refugees return to Ukraine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/returning-ukrainian-refugees-say-theres-no-place-like-home-56cd2969 . Given the war’s focus on drone attacks and artillery, some of this is going to end badly.
FBI shoots and kills Utah man threatening President Biden, Alvin Bragg and others: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fbi-fatally-shoots-man-utah-allegedly-threatened-biden-alvin-bragg-oth-rcna99083 . The FBI was attempting to serve search and arrest warrants when the shooting occurred. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/utah-man-who-allegedly-threatened-biden-killed-in-fbi-search-44380a1a .
OJ’s defense in the federal election fraud case has a fatal flaw: https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/supreme-court-already-rejected-key-232329817.html . This article could be clearer, but it does identify a huge problem with OJ’s defense. OJ’s lawyers have argued that he relied on the legal advice of several lawyers (4 of the co-conspirators) in pursuing his “honest” belief that the election was stolen from him. The article points out that their “advice” relied on the bogus independent legislature theory, advanced by conservatives but never adopted by any court. Furthermore, the Supreme Court recently rejected it, which should put an end to this silliness.
So OJ has at least two problems here. First, he pushed the lawyers to come up with a theory that would make him win – that’s why this is a conspiracy which he led. Second, many of the lawyers caveated their participation by saying the theory was unlikely of success. Prior actions in this case gave DOJ access to some of the lawyers’ notes. That rare piercing of the attorney-client privilege only happens when the court decides that the attorney has acted improperly, such as advising the client to commit a crime.
In summary, the independent legislature theory has never been a valid legal theory. The recent Supreme Court rejection of the theory puts an exclamation point on why this does not constitute a valid defense. UPDATE: AP reporting shows in stark detail how OJ led this conspiracy: https://apnews.com/article/trump-indictment-jan6-riot-cipollone-philbin-b72ee539405f1f70fe34277f969a741c .
Given the manner in which this case is developing, here is one potential outcome: Judge Chutkan holds OJ’s lawyers to a strict schedule, and the jury convicts OJ by the end of February. The case goes directly to the US Supreme Court, which hears the case quickly. Roberts and the three liberal justices are sure votes to uphold. Roberts will try like hell to get a 9-0 result, but will have a tough time getting Alito and Thomas. My guess is that Kavanaugh and Barrett (OJ appointees) will be persuaded by the Chief Justice. I am unsure about Gorsuch (also an OJ appointee).
If for some reason Roberts cannot get any additional votes, he could conceivably join the conservatives in a 6-3 for OJ, but I really doubt it. Bottom line, the judgment should be affirmed 6-3 or 7-2. The Court will issue its ruling by the end of its term in June, if not before – it depends on how quickly Roberts can get a majority of at least 6-3. The sooner the Supreme Court rules, the sooner the GOP can assess its options. If the Court rules very quickly, there will still be some GOP primaries, and the results of those primaries could be key in what the GOP does.
Another legal wrinkle emerges in South Florida: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/08/07/trump-grand-juries-cannon/ (my Post subscription says I can share this with you all, hope this works). Cannon has a right to ask for an explanation of why a grand jury somewhere other than where her location handled the superseding indictment. I suspect that explanation goes like this: OJ is the subject of a variety of legal inquiries, and all filings so far meet federal venue requirements. Based on those filings, we prosecutors provided evidence to the various grand juries on an as-needed basis. The new evidence led us to choose the appropriate venue to create the superseding indictment, done in compliance with federal requirements. This is within the prosecutors’ discretion.
The question is what Judge “Loose” Cannon will do with the explanation she receives. Based on her apparent bias in favor of OJ, I don’t like the possibilities here. However, hopefully she recognizes she is on a short leash with the Eleventh Circuit after her previous blunders. We will see.
Fani Willis expected to take OJ Georgia election fraud case to grand jury next week: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/georgia-da-expected-present-trump-election-case-grand-jury-week-rcna98972 .
WSJ: We start to tell our readers that OJ has huge legal problems: https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trumps-2024-campaign-plans-collide-with-strategy-to-stay-out-of-jail-43c53342 . However, the enticing phrase “strategy to stay out of jail” in the headline and link disappears from the article. As noted above, OJ could face trial and conviction within 6 months. Also, if OJ doesn’t shut the hell up about non-public evidence and a gag order ensues, things could come to a head very quickly.
OJ won’t sign GOP loyalty pledge for first debate: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-says-wont-sign-loyalty-pledge-required-gop-debate-rcna99155 . As this newsletter has said for a long time, OJ would be foolish to attend this debate – he has nothing to gain and everything to lose.
Meanwhile, the lies in La-La Land are beginning to catch up to the real world consequences: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/newsmax-trump-disclaimer_n_64d45bbde4b0d52beea22aeb . I’m sure the Newsmax viewers were not happy with this highly advisable disclaimer. I’m not sorry reality interrupted their day.
DeMentis suspends another elected Florida prosecutor on weak grounds: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/ron-desantis-suspends-second-elected-prosecutor-monique-worrell-rcna98968 . Monique Worrell is a Democrat, and the only Black woman serving as a local prosecutor in Florida. There are no specific allegations of misconduct. Most troubling, however, DeMentis has been using these suspensions to raise funds for his campaign. If this isn’t illegal, it sure as hell should be.
Niger coup: We’re losing diplomatic options: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/coup-leaders-niger-grow-increasingly-defiant-us-pressure-rcna98915 . Apparently, France is spearheading an invasion plan with other countries in the region. The danger here grows exponentially. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/niger-coup-us-trained-general-65b5ecd6 . Again, we appear to be losing diplomatic options.
Ecuadorian presidential candidate assassinated: https://apnews.com/article/ecuador-villavicencio-presidential-candidate-killed-ee9c726b82c09e16e5dacde2d6f005ff . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ecuador-presidential-candidate-who-had-denounced-gangs-is-assassinated-dad61aa5 .
WSJ: Oilseed weeds as biofuels: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biofuel-renewable-diesel-cover-crops-2077c807 . While it’s not petroleum, it’s still generating energy by burning. I’m not sure this is a long-term solution.
Scientists successfully repeat nuclear fusion ignition: https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/green-tech/a44754208/scientists-achieve-second-fusion-ignition/ .
WSJ: PGA Tour commissioner Jay Monahan admits “mistakes”: https://www.wsj.com/sports/golf/jay-monahan-pga-tour-liv-golf-saudi-deal-medical-leave-c05387d7 . Um, wow. How about pissing off every golfer that plays on your tour? This is much more than a “setback”.
Allegedly, Notre Dame is pushing hard for the ACC to add Stanford and Cal: https://www.si.com/college/georgiatech/football/conference-realignment-notre-dame-pushing-hard-for-acc-to-add-cal-and-stanford . This only makes sense to me if Notre Dame is also offering to join the ACC in football. Whatever … other reporting is that the ACC is not going to do it: https://thespun.com/college-football/acc-reportedly-decides-on-potentially-adding-cal-stanford . The article suggests these two will still find a home. Where?
The Pac-12 effect on college basketball: https://www.si.com/college/2023/08/09/conference-realignment-pac-12-big-ten-big-12-college-basketball . We’ll be thinking about the effects of the Pac-12 collapse for a long time …