COVID pandemic almost didn’t happen: https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/18/health/coronavirus-bad-luck-genetic-study-scn/index.html . So if the world forces China to shut down these stupid wildlife markets, doesn’t that significantly increase our protection against pandemics?
The end of the COVID pandemic: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/when-will-it-be-over-3-key-numbers-scientists-are-n1261198 . Maybe, but probably not. I agree with the viewpoint of many micro-epidemics. However, more important than location are the variants, for at least two reasons. First, my view is that the pandemic is a collection of epidemics by variant. As viable variants multiply, transmission rates and mortality rates have increased for several of the variants. Further, the vaccines are less effective against several of the variants. Second, we are a highly mobile society. Any global location can quickly introduce new variants across the United States.
This could have some parallels to influenza, but there is no evidence for COVID behaving like the flu. There is no direct evidence that the virus is seasonal. The race is now between expanding variants and modified vaccines (booster shots). The mRNA vaccination technology is a tremendous advance in our ability to fight viral pandemics, and that is where we have placed our hope. The ongoing failure to have adequate genomic sequencing and the public’s declining use of testing are mistakes in our public health strategy which will prolong the pandemic.
Lastly, vaccine efficacy is a complex question. We do not know the extent to which the vaccines will reduce the severity of disease and the level of transmission for infections with future variants. This information is critical in understanding the course of the pandemic.
WSJ: EU clears AstraZeneca vaccine after blood clot suspension: https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-is-cleared-by-europe-after-blood-clot-concerns-11616083845 . Skepticism in Europe about this vaccine will be difficult to overcome.
100 million vaccinations goal reached March 19: https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-us-to-hit-100-million-vaccine-0795b5d9ea63dae816d172169a10df32 .
WSJ: US to “loan” AstraZeneca vaccines to Mexico, Canada: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-plans-to-send-astrazeneca-vaccine-doses-to-mexico-canada-official-says-11616086636 .
WSJ: J&J working on vaccines for variants: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variant-vaccines-in-works-at-johnson-johnson-11616091544 . Any vaccine that wants to compete with the mRNA vaccines has to do this. Otherwise, the mRNA vaccines will take over the market as variants multiply.
Use of baby aspirin improves COVID outcomes: https://journals.lww.com/anesthesia-analgesia/Fulltext/2021/04000/Aspirin_Use_Is_Associated_With_Decreased.2.aspx .
WSJ: Doctors in poor countries are working unvaccinated: https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-front-line-doctors-in-poor-countries-covid-19-vaccine-comes-too-late-11616059800 . Think about how risky this is. What happens if this exacerbates the shortage of experienced physicians in the developing world?
WSJ: AstraZeneca vaccine still widely used globally: https://www.wsj.com/articles/astrazeneca-vaccines-woes-in-europe-arent-hurting-its-appeal-elsewhere-11616091081 . For many of these countries, AstraZeneca is their only realistic option in terms of cost and availability. And its poor performance against the South African variant creates vulnerability to a variant surge down the road.
Lonely chimps take to Zoom: https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/lonely-chimps-at-czech-zoos-take-to-zoom-to-connect-during-lockdown/ . In another similarity to humans, they aren’t wearing pants.
WSJ: Israel’s vaccine roll-out: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-israel-delivered-the-worlds-fastest-vaccine-rollout-11616080968 .
Ukraine’s COVID cases jump: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/ukraines-covid-19-cases-jump-capital-kyiv-imposes-tough-restrictions-2021-03-18/ .
WSJ: India’s vaccine diplomacy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-beats-china-at-vaccine-diplomacy-11616086729 . Background on the Quad is here.
COVID resurges in India and Pakistan: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-cases-idUSKBN2BA0TQ .
WSJ: Weekly jobless claims rise to 770,000: https://www.wsj.com/articles/weekly-jobless-claims-coronavirus-03-18-2021-11616022152 .
WSJ: Relief aid for state and local governments: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-covid-19-aid-aims-to-help-cities-states-avoid-cutting-jobs-and-services-11616059802 .
Preparing an Orange for the grill: https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-new-york-subpoenas-manhattan-trump-investigations-218987d4dbac510158c35d5850f5e492 . Can’t wait for the barbeque.
WSJ: Chubb offers to buy Hartford: https://www.wsj.com/articles/insurance-giant-chubb-offers-to-buy-rival-hartford-11616103077 .
Oregon exports a nut to Texas: https://apnews.com/article/galveston-coronavirus-pandemic-oregon-arrests-us-news-4a0e8f0b5e9c98c8c7b3dfbb4d403d76 . It used to just be filberts (hazelnuts).
WSJ: Governor DeMentis brags about being an idiot: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ron-desantis-on-the-pandemic-year-dont-trust-the-elites-11616093752 . As readers know, I studiously avoid WSJ opinion in this newsletter except when it’s so over the top as to demand a rebuke. The US has Orange Julius to thank for its world-worst performance in managing the pandemic. That Florida’s case rate is similar to other large states is nothing to brag about. Encouraging people to ignore science and public health experts as “elites” is shameful.
Remember that Governor DeMentis also tried to stick the state with the Republican convention, ultimately causing large financial losses for both Charlotte and Jacksonville. It continues to amaze me that we all know who the liars are. They still command media space for reasons that are unrelated to the truth.
Here’s an intelligent rebuke to another WSJ opinion disgrace: https://www.wsj.com/articles/republicans-need-to-face-the-issues-raised-by-h-r-1-11616098378 .
And an advocate for science: https://www.wsj.com/articles/neil-degrasse-tyson-on-the-pandemic-year-science-needs-better-marketing-11616106660 .