Convergent evolution – the 677 mutation: https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/7-virus-variants-found-in-u-s-carrying-the-same-mutation/ (link replaced 3/7/21). More: https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/14/health/coronavirus-mutations-birds-us/index.html . As readers know, I completely support the criticism in these articles of a lack of comprehensive genomic sequencing in the US. It unnecessarily risks seriously prolonging the pandemic. I’m also critical of the naming conventions for the virus. The bird names do not help.
Will COVID disappear or become a mild disease?: https://apnews.com/article/common-cold-india-coronavirus-pandemic-latin-america-infectious-diseases-9ff4108bb925762655b6f6e23ffcf500 . The answers are no, and very unlikely.
We know COVID won’t disappear because it is already embedded in the global population. Its variants are becoming more transmissible, and of course those become the dominant variants. That is the nature of evolution. This means herd immunity is getting beyond our reach. Also, there is a significant animal reservoir of the disease. Smallpox is the only virus eliminated from humans, and it has no other host.
Will COVID become a mild disease? The often-repeated example is influenza. But influenza is just one example. Virulent flu strains appear periodically, and even without that the flu kills hundreds of thousands globally each year. The early evidence is that the new dominant COVID variants are more deadly as well as more transmissible than the original strain. The “issue” for any virus is transmissibility and effective reproduction, and to a lesser extent its capacity to reinfect. Whether or not it kills 1%, 2% or even 5% of its hosts is not significant relative to its ability to reproduce and transmit.
And we have many examples of viruses that are highly transmissible as well as deadly – for example, measles, mumps and chickenpox. These diseases have been controlled by vaccination programs. That does not mean these viruses are incapable of mutating. They have limited opportunity, however, because the viral load in the population is small.
You may gather that I have lost patience with comparisons between COVID and the flu. They are different families of viruses. Our familiarity with the flu does not create utility in the comparison. It is wishful thinking.
UK variant is deadlier: https://www.abc10.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/uk-coronavirus-variant-may-be-more-deadly/507-6c7faacc-855f-40fa-a2fe-c3698440485c . This finalizes preliminary research reported earlier.
WSJ: Returning to work for COVID long-haulers: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-challenges-of-getting-long-covid-patients-back-to-work-11613350801 .
More on the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/14/life-savers-story-oxford-astrazeneca-coronavirus-vaccine-scientists . While I too applaud these scientists, the article fails to mention that this vaccine has suffered setbacks recently. One wonders if the Guardian is indulging some British nationalism here.
WSJ: G-7 leaders to discuss pandemic: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-to-join-g-7-leaders-in-virtual-meeting-to-discuss-pandemic-response-11613347784 .
Walmart joins vaccine distribution network: https://www.wsj.com/articles/walmarts-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-heads-to-small-towns-11613298604 .
WSJ: Vaccination mechanics: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-administering-covid-19-shots-is-so-hard-11613322773 .
WSJ: Childhood obesity grows during the pandemic: https://www.wsj.com/articles/remote-learning-during-covid-19-is-causing-children-to-gain-weight-doctors-warn-11613298602 .
WHO data controversy continues: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/14/who-investigator-claims-china-refused-to-hand-over-key-covid-information . You realize of course that the passage of time allows the creation of “alternative” data sets. More: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-gravely-damaged-coronavirus-cooperation-china-says-row-erupts-n1257913 . Politics has no place in this global emergency. More: https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-china-origin-data-uk-backs-joe-biden-call/ .
WHO has found signs the December 2019 Wuhan outbreak was wider than previously thought: https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2021/02/14/who-wuhan-china-coronavirus-spread-walsh-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/around-the-world/ . First, the 174 cases reported were more severe cases. We know many cases are mild or asymptomatic. Second, the samples from the 174 cases show 13 variants of the virus. This educates the data controversy discussed above. More: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-whuan-china-world-health-organization-c11a67a4-368a-466d-adf0-df7fe541523a.html .
Vaccinations to start in Australia and New Zealand: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-australia-new-zeal/covid-19-vaccines-touch-down-in-australia-new-zealand-inoculations-to-start-idUSKBN2AF0AL .
Only 10% of India’s health care workers take second vaccine dose: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/coronavirus-bulk-of-covid-19-vaccine-recipients-pass-up-second-dose/article33836527.ece . India does have data reporting issues. Still, this is a shockingly low percentage.
WSJ: COVID workers’ comp claims rejected: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-so-many-covid-19-workers-comp-claims-are-being-rejected-11613316304 . Really? If you worked in a meatpacking plant, for example, or somewhere else where there are close working conditions and a major outbreak, that should be covered.
Biden’s stimulus plan supported by Republicans not inside the Beltway: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/biden-is-winning-republican-support-for-his-dollar19-trillion-coronavirus-relief-plan-just-not-in-washington/ar-BB1dGfPD?li=BBnb7Kz .
WSJ: Stimulus money gets spent – stimulating the economy: https://www.wsj.com/articles/lower-income-covid-19-aid-recipients-seen-boosting-consumer-spending-11613298600 . The “burned a hole through their pocket” comment is unbelievably offensive. These people are in serious need, which is why stimulus/relief packages have been needed. Mr. Silver is apparently a tone-deaf Wall Street elitist.
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The future of Section 230: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-congress-might-upend-section-230-the-internet-law-big-tech-is-built-on-11613172368 . An equal or larger issue is the blurring of news and opinion throughout media. Is there some way to implement an updated “equal time” rule for “broadcast” news?
Reorder the primaries: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/iowa-and-new-hampshire-shouldnt-vote-first-anymore-says-former-dnc-chair-tom-perez-the-status-quo-is-clearly-unacceptable/ar-BB1dGfzS?li=BBnb7Kz . Iowa first has never made sense.
A bipartisan post-insurrection commission: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2021/02/14/bipartisan-support-grows-for-911-style-commission-to-probe-capitol-riot/?sh=a98422b56090 (link replaced 3/7/21).
Biden advocates for tighter gun laws: https://www.snopes.com/ap/2021/02/14/parkland-shooting-biden-gun-laws/ . Two points are relevant to this story. First, the Parkland shooting occurred on Valentine’s Day. Man’s inhumanity to man is with us 24/7. Second, the post-Orange Julius era is now truly upon us. We have far more pressing issues than that loser. He is the problem of the Republican Party at this point, and that’s all. Well, except for all the lawsuits and criminal charges he faces, which the Republicans hope will let them sidestep this problem too: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/cyrus-vance-manhattan-district-attorney-trump-property-investigation_n_60287ee7c5b680717ee83dab .
Jamie Raskin on the impeachment result: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/raskin-trump-found-guilty-court-public-opinion-court-history-n1257915 .
Senator Cassidy explains his vote to convict, for which he was censured by the Louisiana Republican Party: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/538850-cassidy-pens-column-explaining-vote-to-convict-trump .
John Oliver on Frackin’ Ted and Republican state legislators: https://www.thedailybeast.com/john-oliver-returns-to-expose-ted-cruz-over-impeachment-trial-charade . The Republican Party has deep problems. And that is an understatement.
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Today’s chuckle: https://thespun.com/more/golf/daniel-berger-reaction-bunker-shot-lips-out . This is a great example of the cameraman being in the right place at the right time.
P.S. I’ve survived the Portland ice storm well – until last night. The freezing rain caused the neighbor’s two 50 foot maples to lose huge branches – the largest of which missed the house but hammered my power and cable lines. Repair is a ways out, perhaps as much as 10 days. I’ll do my best to keep getting the news out, but please be patient if the newsletter is as spotty as my Internet service is right now.