China suppresses COVID death data: https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/16/china/china-cremation-data-covid-19-intl-hnk/index.html . As we had feared, China is suppressing all data that would allow us to do an “excess deaths” calculation in order to understand the effect of COVID on China. We know they were grossly understating COVID deaths. We are left with modeling on very limited data. More on cremation data: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-07-18/chinese-province-saw-cremations-jump-during-covid-surge .
Akorn bankruptcy exacerbated drug shortages: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/akorn-us-drugmaker-closure-escalating-drug-shortage-rcna91402 . Akorn manufactured generic drugs, a relatively low margin business. Of the 75 generics it made, for some Akorn was the sole supplier.
Gen Z’s scary career prospects: https://www.aol.com/news/ai-boom-screwing-over-gen-092500702.html . This article in my view does not overstate the disruption overtaking thought work. In the work I know, actuarial work, senior people have traditionally mentored junior people as they worked their way through our examination sequence to earn their professional credentials.
Our work is both science and art, the art coming from experience. AI will soon not only be able to do the numbers, but write the certification reports as well. AI will replace the junior people. I am more skeptical about whether AI can replace the art, in which case it will be lost to time. That means that the quality of our profession’s work will suffer.
WSJ: Consulting personnel cut at Big 4 accounting firms: https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-four-accounting-firms-pare-their-consultant-ranks-in-postpandemic-reversal-dc50f9da .
Evergrande reports total losses for 2021 and 2022 of $81 billion: https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/investing/china-evergrande-losses-intl-hnk/index.html . Additionally, Evergrande says its current owed debt is $340 billion, which is 2% of China’s annual GDP. Evergrande’s assets total $256 billion, suggesting it is not only insolvent but $84 billion underwater. In a liquidation, stockholders would be wiped out and debtholders would receive 75 cents on the dollar. The property crisis in China clearly is not over.
The US is also moving toward a commercial real estate meltdown: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/office-real-estate-values-moving-211126568.html . Those betting on a soft landing in the US or globally are not paying attention to the risks.
Russia strikes Ukraine grain port: https://www.aol.com/news/russia-strikes-ukraine-grain-port-081936649.html . I agree with the Ukrainians – this will literally kill millions of food-insecure people globally who depend on Ukrainian grain to eat. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-strikes-odesa-port-after-quitting-black-sea-grain-deal-4df967bd .
WSJ: Military cooperation in space: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-pushes-military-cooperation-in-space-6658f974 . Is that thing he’s wearing the Space Command uniform? A better uniform would have more credibility.
Another shoe will soon drop on Orange Julius: https://apnews.com/article/trump-jan-6-investigation-2020-election-7caa4d45b9dc287af868aa12f87fe254 . Jack Smith deserves praise for the speed with which he has completed thorough investigations. As OJ has disclosed the target letter publicly, I would expect the indictment to come within the next week. Based on the special counsel’s previous work, we all expect another well-written indictment. OJ’s self-serving comments indicate he has no serious defense. The new charges will be filed in DC, an especially unfavorable venue for OJ.
Among other things, the coming indictment lets Judge “Loose” Cannon know that the government is pursuing much more serious charges than the slam dunk document charges she is handling. She needs to move that case along.
UPDATE: Judge Cannon indicates December too soon for trial: https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/18/politics/trump-classified-documents-hearing/index.html . Judge Cannon continues in an incompetent manner. Much of the discovery timeline can be set in stone at this time. That’s what she should do, and then set a trial date. Because of the critical public interest in this case, December was an appropriate suggestion. Pushing the trial date past February would be a huge mistake. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-classified-documents-explained-a367fbd0 .
OJ’s team was apparently surprised by the target letter. How could that be?: https://www.mediaite.com/news/what-did-they-think-was-going-on-john-berman-stunned-when-kaitlan-collins-says-trump-team-caught-off-guard-by-target-letter/ . This article describes an exchange on CNN. Anchor John Berman is shocked at the team surprise as the grand jury has been calling a succession of key witnesses. The reporter, Kaitlan Collins, says the team apparently thought that because the case was so expansive, OJ would be in the clear. Huh? Is the idea that if you commit a crime large enough, DOJ can’t handle it?
OJ has also stolen Israeli antiquities: https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/trump-hoarding-israeli-antiquities-mar-134736281.html . When you’re an entitled crook, you’re entitled and crooked all the way through.
Also, OJ ordered an official to break the law and said he would pardon him afterwards: https://www.rawstory.com/trump-pardon-promises/ . On and on, through and through. So tired of this fool.
Conservative students turn toward Orange Julius: https://www.aol.com/news/turning-point-actions-student-activists-180408272.html . Wherever these people are studying, they aren’t learning anything useful.
Michigan AG charges the 16 GOP fake electors for OJ with eight felony counts, including forgery: https://apnews.com/article/fake-elector-michigan-republican-df7803fca3862be713d9d6d29fb77e81 . One of the fake electors says he didn’t do anything illegal. The Michigan AG disagrees with you, Mr. Haggard. More: https://news.yahoo.com/fake-gop-electors-ditched-phones-012434858.html . This article suggests that Mr. Haggard knew full well what he was doing. Also, the evidence apparently shows the Republican National Committee participated in directing this fraud. Ka-boom! WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/michigan-charges-16-people-with-acting-as-false-electors-for-trump-in-2020-ab3edce5 .
House GOP tries to address climate change, sort of: https://apnews.com/article/climate-change-republicans-trillion-trees-01e455acce4397c0376e82bfa18b72c2 . So planting trees is a good thing. However, when climate change makes the forests so dry that they start burning down, it’s not much of a permanent solution. Also note that planting a trillion trees requires an area roughly the size of the continental United States. Where exactly are we going to plant these trees? Oh, I know – Alaska is so much warmer with global warming that we can plant a bunch of them there.
Alaska, by the way, is about 20% of the size of the continental US: https://www.royalalaskanmovers.com/how-big-is-alaska-comparisons-to-lower-48/ . And much of southern Alaska is already forested. Did anyone in the House GOP take even 2 minutes to think this out? You’re kidding, right?
Meanwhile, Biden uses Marjorie Taylor Greene as an endorser: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/marjorie-taylor-greene-joe-biden-campaign-ad_n_64b74716e4b093f07cb1c13d . This is very funny and quite accurate. Interestingly, both sides of the aisle are cutting up Marjorie Taylor Greene right now. As noted here before, she is now the House’s Ted Cruz.
DeMentis tries campaign reset, but doesn’t know how: https://apnews.com/article/desantis-trump-republican-president-reset-fundraising-cd06b81f9493ef369b382413ca3e4fdd . The political analysis in this article is unbelievably blind. OJ’s focus on DeMentis has nothing to do with DeMentis. It is a ploy to reduce the GOP race to a two-person race, shutting out all danger from the remainder of the field. Why? Because as DeMentis demonstrated again today, he is trying to run against OJ without criticizing OJ. How is that going to gain him OJ voters?
The $150 million DeMentis has raised means nothing. Jeb Bush had a similar war chest in 2016, plus much more powerful political connections. Ron’s only chance is if OJ’s legal troubles finally catch up with him. Even then, Ron is hardly a sure thing.
WSJ: Who will qualify for the GOP debate August 23?: https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-republican-gop-debate-who-7f128142 . So here’s a lot of data. That’s nice. But as I have said before, there is no apparent reason for Orange Julius to show up, and some good reasons for him not to (he’s way ahead, they’ll pick on him). If OJ is a no-show, who’s going to tune in to watch Ron DeMentis? Possibly some of his family members … possibly …
WSJ: The lead cable problem: https://www.wsj.com/articles/lead-cables-will-be-a-dead-weight-for-telecom-carriers-1acd855 . This is a very expensive environmental problem. More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/at-t-halts-plans-to-remove-lead-cables-in-lake-tahoe-99ab12ca .
Tucker the chocolate lab leads to capture of wanted fugitive: https://abcnews.go.com/US/meet-chocolate-labrador-arrest-fugitive-michael-burham/story?id=101340211 .
Disciplined US soldier flees to North Korea: https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-us-citizen-crossed-border-e4aaa883901052e65f5c400c8279438b . This young man has poor judgment.
WSJ: Taco Tuesday trademark fight ends: https://www.wsj.com/articles/taco-tuesday-taco-bell-taco-johns-trademark-fight-1ba3c03b .
Steph Curry does it again!: https://www.nbcsports.com/watch/golf/curry-wins-acc-with-clutch-eagle-putt-on-no-18 . Left this off yesterday’s newsletter. After Curry’s great hole-in-one on Saturday, Steph followed it up Sunday with an eagle on the last hole to win the American Century Championship, a celebrity golf tournament in which he clearly belongs.