China COVID tsunami death estimates: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/02/15/world/asia/china-covid-death-estimates.html . Hopefully, this link will work for you. The NY Times article publishes a variety of estimates, which basically range from 1 to 1.5 million deaths. A few points: (1) No one believes the Chinese government reporting; the sense is the government cannot admit anything like the actual total because of the political issues it would cause internally; (2) This set of estimates looks like the estimates made at the time Zero COVID was relaxed; I see no evidence that much new information was incorporated here.
(3) Each of the estimates has obvious flaws, with a common theme of using understated inputs; and (4) There is nothing here which changes my opinion that the Chinese will experience 2.5 to 4 million COVID deaths, and that there will be ongoing waves over at least the next 2 to 3 years.
My hope is that eventually we will see population information which will allow the calculation of excess deaths in China. We can then move past the current range of “expert” estimates, which I don’t find credible except to the extent that they conclude the official Chinese reporting is wildly understated.
Economic optimism on China’s reopening: https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3210318/foreign-firms-china-express-cautious-optimism-2023-geopolitical-risks-market-barriers-remain . This is an indirect test of the death estimates above. If China experiences significant ongoing COVID waves, as I expect, the dampening effect on the economy should be discernible.
Zero COVID costs in 2022: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-02-15/chinese-provinces-spent-at-least-51-6-billion-on-covid-curbs-in-2022 .
WSJ: Chinese government cuts medical benefits for seniors: https://www.wsj.com/articles/hundreds-protest-in-china-as-government-cuts-medical-benefits-71514690 . (1) Are they listening to Rick Scott?; (2) This newsletter has wondered if the Chinese are failing to vaccinate the elderly in order to let COVID remove their “economic burden”. This article provides indirect evidence that the mass murder in China may be intentional.
WSJ: China, encouraging births, recognizes single mothers: https://www.wsj.com/articles/single-mothers-in-china-face-fewer-hurdles-as-beijing-tries-to-boost-births-a2181dc5 .
HCA hospitals in Florida accused of malpractice and worse by their own staffs: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/roaches-operating-room-hca-hospital-florida-rcna69563 . This report was broadcast on NBC News tonight. As you can see, the details are devastating. HCA is a large for-profit chain in the South. The doctors and staff allege HCA has put profit ahead of quality care, with horrific results.
Lesbian mom loses child and spouse to child’s sperm donor: https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/lesbian-mom-loses-parental-rights-wife-childs-sperm-donor-rcna70884 . The sequence of the passage of these laws strikes me as irrelevant. The judge’s ruling ignores the concept of equal protection, which appears determinative here. As to the question of “Why?”, the answer seems to be “Oklahoma”.
Turkey and Syria face post-earthquake health risks: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-02-15/disease-the-new-threat-as-turkey-faces-post-quake-water-shortage . Also, this area is experiencing cold winter nights with hundreds of thousands lacking adequate shelter. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-faces-acute-homelessness-crisis-after-earthquakes-4108b3fa . This article estimates 2 million are homeless.
The media does not understand economics: https://news.yahoo.com/europe-now-stuck-huge-stockpile-092800478.html . Lord, where to start with this hot mess? The stockpile minimized Russia’s ability to hold Europe hostage to their energy supplies. As the Ukraine war has turned into a war of attrition, Europe will need to maintain an energy surplus until the war ends. This article is at best pennywise and pound foolish, but that approach completely misses the larger picture.
WSJ: We do not understand the stock market: https://www.wsj.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-sheds-most-of-its-stake-in-chip-maker-tsmc-de0ba8d5 . Here is yet another article in the recent flood of poor analysis from the Journal. Readers, here are the two key facts in the article: (1) Berkshire Hathaway sold most of its TSMC stock just months after acquiring a huge stake, at an 18% profit; (2) Berkshire has sold more shares of its overall holdings than it acquired in recent months. What is the obvious conclusion to draw from these facts?
Obviously, Berkshire currently prefers cash over stocks. Who wants to own a company in Taiwan right now, in a chip market that is experiencing serious slowdown? It makes complete sense to liquidate and lock in their significant short-term gain. The overall preference for cash means Berkshire anticipates a significant downturn in the stock market. Why does the Journal not see this? Is it because they are more stock touts than analysts?
WSJ: We also do not understand the bond market, pensions or corporate accounting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-interest-rates-may-bring-higher-pension-costs-for-companies-7d6c138f . This article is complete lunacy. Many of the actuarial readers of this newsletter (and the writer) have spent years doing pension plan certifications. Because pensions are long-term liabilities, when interest rates go up, pension liabilities go down. Period, full stop! The headline, “Rising Interest Rates May Bring Higher Pension Costs”, is categorically wrong in every situation.
A CFO quoted in the article says, “Our assets have been hit in the pension plan have been hit, and that leads to … higher costs”. That comment is true (unless the plan was significantly overfunded, in which case there is no expensing impact). I can’t make much sense of the comment by Sysco’s interim CFO. It is possible that they sold off pension liabilities before interest rates went up, and therefore overpaid the insurer. That’s just stupidity, not some exotic effect of rising interest rates.
China spews non sequiturs over the balloon shoot-downs: https://apnews.com/article/china-threatens-us-entities-over-balloon-incident-a9edd8db532f6cda9bace43b94051e7a . Under international law, the balloons violate the airspace of other countries. Those flying below 45,000 feet are an unnecessary hazard for civilian aircraft. In racist days gone past, the actions of Asian nations which we did not understand were termed “inscrutable”. China’s current behavior reminded me of this arcane term. That’s not a good thing.
WSJ: Special counsel to subpoena Mark Meadows: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mark-meadows-trumps-last-chief-of-staff-subpoenaed-by-grand-jury-8c7ad44e . Earth to WSJ: The executive privilege argument has gone nowhere when OJ affiliates have tried it previously in this matter.
Sumerian tavern in Iraq, from 3,000 BC: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/5000-year-old-tavern-beer-recipe-found-archaeologists-iraq/ . The tavern site includes a tablet with a beer recipe written in cuneiform …
Raquel Welch passes at 82: https://deadline.com/2023/02/raquel-welch-dead-fantastic-voyage-one-million-years-b-c-myra-breckinridge-1235260802/ . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/actress-raquel-welch-dies-at-82-9fa1a4d8 . Today’s reflection on fame notes that Raquel Welch will be primarily remembered for the way she filled out a deerskin bikini on the poster for the 1966 film, One Million Years BC. Never mind that neither dinosaurs nor modern humans existed in that time frame, or that the concept of uniting “deerskin” and “bikini” is so offensively wrong on so many levels. The (British!) film had a budget of 422,000 pounds but achieved a US box office of $8 million. Therefore, the result is forever deemed a smashing success.
Raquel Welch deserves great credit for turning her 100 minutes of cinematic bikini fame into a lifelong career fondly recognized and, yes, remembered.