China approves homegrown mRNA vaccine: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/22/china-approves-first-domestic-mrna-covid-19-vaccine . While 85.3% efficacy is much better than China’s non-mRNA vaccines at 70%, Western mRNA vaccines have 90% efficacy. That may seem like a small difference. However, it means that Western mRNA vaccines are ineffective for 10% of the population, while China’s are 14.7% ineffective. That’s almost a 50% increase in people failing to receive protection. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-approves-first-homegrown-mrna-covid-19-vaccine-85a0a68a .
WSJ: Moderna plans $130 price for COVID vaccine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/moderna-to-price-its-covid-19-vaccine-at-130-a-dose-d7f4a956 . This is in line with previous announcements by both Moderna and Pfizer.
WSJ: US organ transplant system overhaul: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-administration-launches-overhaul-of-organ-transplant-system-db630110 . One critic commented, How is that that UPS can tell you, every minute, where your package is, but the current organ transplant system wastes 20% of donated kidneys? Good question.
295 drug shortages damage US healthcare: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/drug-shortages-are-rising-pose-national-security-risk-new-report-warns-rcna75959 . The 295 shortages at the end of 2022 include antibiotics, ADHD treatments and children’s medicines. Considering the cost and complexity of healthcare, the failure to have the appropriate drug treatments available is both dangerous and shocking.
Eye drop tragedies increase: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/cdc-2-more-people-have-died-after-using-over-the-counter-eye-drops-and-4-people-had-their-eyes-surgically-removed/ar-AA18WVVX?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=dd759c0255c04b36ae89760a3d51de0c&ei=25 .
Fentanyl now mixed with tranq: https://thehill.com/homenews/3909695-tranq-making-deadliest-drug-threat-in-us-even-deadlier-dea-warns/ . This new combination increases the likelihood of fatal overdose.
Fed raises interest rates 25 basis points: https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-inflation-banks-interest-rates-jobs-91a9185ebce972bbf5ab1f46654f1a53 . As we have insisted, the Fed really had no other options. The media commentary in this article is wrong, so let’s clarify the picture. The banks that failed were incompetent risk managers, and do not indicate a systemic weakness in the system. The future of rate hikes now focuses on the data.
In my view, the most likely scenario between now and the next Fed meeting (May 2) is that inflation remains well above 2% (my guess is above 5%) and the labor market will cool slightly but remain robust. In that scenario, the Fed will raise rates another 25 basis points. The banking crisis seems to be passing, which will reinforce the appropriateness of today’s 25 basis point increase.
This article and others suggest that the next 25 basis point increase will be the last. That is an immense over-reading of Powell’s comments. Again, the process is now data driven. If inflation remains sticky (my expectation), there will be further increases.
WSJ: UK inflation accelerates: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-inflation-resumes-its-rise-defying-expectations-b23e6aa0 . Again, I expect a similar scenario will play out in the US.
Mike Pence supports “common sense” Social Security, Medicare reforms: https://apnews.com/article/pence-social-security-medicare-president-2024-fc87ee66f6da6bc97413231efddfaf06 . My disgust with the GOP “discussion” grows with every stupid reform comment by their presidential “contenders”. Social Security and Medicare trust funds are going bankrupt in the next few years because not enough taxes are coming in to cover the benefits currently due the retired Baby Boomers. If you are not going to touch benefits for current retirees or those retiring in the next 25 years (and certainly current retirees at least should not be touched), the ONLY way to solve the bankruptcy problem is to raise tax inflow. Freaking period, end of discussion, Mike Pence!
To gain that tax inflow, the current income caps on Social Security and Medicare taxes should be removed. In other words, tax the rich. However, other taxation increases will be needed to avoid bankruptcy. Those could involve raising the tax rate, and possibly supplemental temporary contributions from the Federal government. Again, these are the ONLY solutions, so by definition they contain the “common sense” solutions. Bet you won’t hear any of this from Mike “Not Our Next President” Pence.
Facts matter: Myocarditis reduced in boys 16 to 24 who receive the COVID vaccine, according to CDC: https://www.rawstory.com/rand-paul-moderna-ceo/ . Raw Story sees this as a situation where Rand Paul was “stunned” by the Moderna CEO’s response, which reflects CDC data. My sense is that Rand Paul asked the question for the purpose of inserting his “research” into the record, and may not have anticipated the Moderna CEO’s response. However, Fox goes out of its way to twist this situation into a victory for Paul: https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/rand-paul-slams-moderna-ceo-failing-concede-studies-rare-heart-inflammation-vaccine . Somehow, Fox fails to mention that CDC statistics contradict Paul. Now, why might that be?
Ukraine’s allies strain to deliver promised weapons promptly: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-pumped-up-by-western-weapons-is-held-back-by-slow-deliveries/ar-AA18XdPN?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=dd8fea3323d54433a4cfa0211b8d64b2&ei=26 . When both sides are pleading for faster materiel delivery, clearly the war will heat up further as spring arrives.
WSJ: Russia continues attacks on Ukrainian civilians: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-fires-armed-drones-across-ukraine-killing-three-in-school-dormitory-aae731d6 .
WSJ: DeMentis tries to backtrack his Ukraine foolishness: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ron-desantis-clarifies-comments-on-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-calls-it-wrong-fb4023c5 . This is pure babbling. Ron says his prior comments of “a territorial dispute” were mischaracterized. How is a direct quote mischaracterization? He then says invasions are wrong, but once Russia invades and holds territory, it becomes a territorial dispute. Nope, not even close, Ron.
Manhattan DA postpones Orange Julius hush money grand jury hearing Wednesday: https://apnews.com/article/trump-stormy-daniels-hush-money-grand-jury-7f3b3a8da083a8fcd98986c5c6a3bab1 . The grand jury is expected to reconvene Thursday.
Appeals court rules OJ lawyer must testify in classified documents case: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-attorney-evan-corcoran-testify/ . My amazement yesterday at the speed of the schedule for hearing the case turns to admiration of the same-day issuance of the panel’s ruling. This is faster delivery than Amazon Prime! As expected, the appeal failed. Conceivably, the Supreme Court could pause the testimony required Friday, but given that the attorney has previously appeared in front of the grand jury, that seems unlikely.
WSJ on above story: At the time of this newsletter writing (2:30 am Eastern), WSJ has not updated this now completely outdated information: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-challenge-prompts-stay-of-order-on-lawyers-testimony-ed130973 . Later in the day, they posted this even more out-of-date news story: https://www.wsj.com/articles/special-counsel-tells-judge-trump-likely-misled-lawyers-on-documents-6030c73c . No word yet on the real story, the actual appellate decision today. So, nothing like Amazon Prime, or even Amazon …
Proud Boys trial paused after prosecutors reveal planned defense witness was a government informant: https://apnews.com/article/proud-boys-enrique-tarrio-capitol-riot-informant-ce0a1cf20c17c95b1ea3306fb70d93c4 . Obviously, the revelation caught the defense off-guard. The question is, Did this relationship unfairly damage the defense? More details must come out before we have a definitive answer to this question.
SEC charges 8 celebrities over improper crypto endorsements: https://www.npr.org/2023/03/22/1165477713/lindsay-lohan-jake-paul-sec-crypto . Six of the 8 have agreed to financial settlements without admitting or denying the SEC findings. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/lindsay-lohan-jake-paul-violated-investor-protection-laws-by-touting-crypto-sec-says-3f6fea81 .