News for August 11 — CDC Alters COVID School Guidelines

CDC alters COVID school guidelines: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-covid-guidelines-schools-rcna42191 . CDC is transitioning away from quarantining for those exposed to the virus. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-drops-quarantine-recommendation-following-covid-19-exposure-11660244410 .

Unvaccinated children face greater long COVID risk: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-08-11/long-covid-risk-up-for-unvaccinated-children-at-home-antibody-test-shows-promise . Methinks CDC is making (another) mistake.

FDA advises 3 at-home COVID tests for greater accuracy: https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2022-08-11/fda-take-3-home-tests-if-exposed-to-covid-to-boost-accuracy . Sure, why not, they’re free from the government. Note that after 3 tests, the accuracy rate is only 79%. Maybe the FDA is just trying to get rid of surplus tests. If two tests are only 62% accurate, what is one test? It may be better to just a flip a coin and call it a test. Or you can flip best two out of three for added accuracy.

WSJ: We present a very fancy argument about COVID viruses to come to an obvious conclusion:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-variants-keep-getting-more-contagious-heres-why-11660210202 . Folks, this is just survival of the fittest in VirusLand. If Charles Darwin read this Journal article, he’d slap his forehead.

Emergent screws up again: https://apnews.com/article/covid-science-health-congress-2fbc5e039df0e5b1d581927ea11adc5b . Presumably this factory will close for good now, at least for COVID vaccines. Maybe they get into the at-home COVID testing business.

3M looks to stiff veterans over earplug hearing loss: https://www.wsj.com/articles/judge-questions-3m-earplug-units-path-to-bankruptcy-11660254683 .

North Korea declares victory over COVID: https://www.aol.com/news/n-koreas-kim-declares-victory-212239565-123103712.html . Sure. Would you believe New York City declaring victory over rats? WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-declares-victory-over-covid-hints-kim-jong-un-was-infected-11660210067 .

China’s Zero COVID lunacy continues: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-08-12/parts-of-chinas-hainan-extend-covid-lockdown-lhasa-in-tibet-tightens-curbs . Are they really going to hold back their economy indefinitely over saving face? More: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-08-11/several-cities-in-china-adds-covid-curbs-as-millions-still-under-lockdown .

WSJ: Weekly jobless claims rise again: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-jobless-claims-rise-slightly-to-new-2022-high-11660221931 . Obviously, various employment data points are pulling in different directions. We know that a lot of Baby Boomers took early retirement during the pandemic. Does it take two Millennials to replace one Boomer? …

The Great Salary Convergence: https://biz.crast.net/welcome-to-the-great-salary-convergence-a-seismic-change-in-the-way-youre-going-to-pay/ . As readers know, I believe certain aspects of inflation are embedded in the economy, are not responsive to Fed interest rate increases, and will take some time to play out. This article describes a key current aspect of salary inflation, although I see the process as driven by different corporate circumstances than the article highlights.

Simply put, COVID caused many people to begin working at home for jobs that were not previously remote. People liked the elimination of the commute, and realized they could do their job from anywhere. Key employees asked to continue to work remotely, and companies allowed this. It is not many steps from here in corporate thinking to adopt the “location agnostic” pay approach described in the article. And this does allow national recruitment, but it also allows existing remote employees to relocate almost at will. This has fueled the Great Resignation.

Upsides also create downsides. These trends are not positive for large, high-expense cities like New York, Boston and San Francisco. It may well be that as salaries (and expenses) rise elsewhere, salaries (and expenses) will stagnate or decline in the major cities. Indeed, the article gives some evidence of that in Silicon Valley. But if tech jobs create several local service jobs, many service workers will be displaced in the large cities, especially metropolitan New York.

Gas prices go below $4 per gallon: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/us-gas-prices-fall-4-first-time-months-rcna42584 . While we welcome this very visible inflation news, food prices (for one example) are going to be much more difficult to deflate. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/gas-prices-dip-to-4-a-gallon-for-first-time-since-march-11660160057 .

WSJ: Producer prices “eased” in July: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-producer-prices-eased-in-july-as-energy-costs-fell-11660222561 . Sorry, 9.8% is not my idea of “eased”. Also, gas isn’t going much below $4 a gallon, and natural gas prices are spiking. We may see some additional decline in this index for August, but fall and winter will present new energy problems.

WSJ: China’s housing woes continue: https://www.wsj.com/articles/bursting-chinese-housing-bubble-compounds-beijings-economic-woes-11660235003 . This slow-rolling train wreck is arriving at the station. China’s growth must slow, and this will affect the economies in many emerging markets.

DOJ moves to unseal Orange Julius search documents: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-received-subpoena-fbi-search-mar-lago-home-rcna42693 . OJ says he won’t object to the unsealing. The Washington Post has reported that the documents sought were classified documents involving nuclear weapons: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-attorney-general-garland-confirms-fbi-investigating-trump-2022-08-11/ . Good grief, this stuff was in the basement of Mar-a-Lago??? If OJ took such documents and either lost or did not return them, he belongs in jail yesterday. More: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/doj-believes-trump-held-sensitive-classified-documents-associates/story?id=88276442 .

By the way, I completely agree with Chuck Rosenberg’s comment in the NBC News article that the DOJ move was both completely appropriate and absolutely brilliant. This represents a path to unraveling the fake outrage OJ looks to create around the search. If the government believed national security was at risk, they absolutely should pursue a search, whether they found any documents or not (it’s a search, not a conviction). Still more: https://www.rawstory.com/trump-merrick-garland-search-warrant/ .

Armed man who tried to breach FBI Cincinnati office shot and killed after standoff: https://apnews.com/article/fbi-cincinnati-armed-man-b4701596a0eb9770e3b29e95328f5704 . Other reports indicate the suspect was at the January 6 insurrection. So we apparently have an armed MAGA maniac who, fueled by OJ misinformation, lost his life for no reason. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/armed-man-attempted-to-enter-fbi-office-in-cincinnati-11660237351 .

Anne Heche not expected to survive car crash: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/anne-heche-not-expected-survive-family-says-rcna42152 . Anne Heche has lost critical brain function. She is on life support solely to determine if any organs may help others, per her wishes. The original reports were tragically off-base.

NBA will retire Bill Russell’s number 6 for all teams in the league: https://apnews.com/article/fbi-cincinnati-armed-man-b4701596a0eb9770e3b29e95328f5704 . This definitely declares Bill Russell the greatest team player of all time.