BA5 spike protein attacks heart: https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-07-28/reinfection-severe-outcome-more-common-with-ba-5-variant-virus-spike-protein-toxic-to-heart-cells . This horrible news would explain the increasing number of hospitalizations from BA5.
Dick Durbin has COVID: https://apnews.com/article/biden-covid-health-illinois-congress-f69ac604296ea386870528e359e8db08 . With important pieces of legislation moving in the Senate, the Democrats truly need every vote.
COVID surges in Russia: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-07-28/russia-daily-covid-cases-hit-highest-since-april .
Africa has no monkeypox vaccine, but it is the only continent with monkeypox deaths: https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-pandemics-public-africa-548c20d2a78c53e0b9ba0fb7cbc0373e . Obviously, when Western nations develop a treatment, under the current system they make enough for themselves before sharing. However, the monkeypox vaccine has been around for a long time.
New York State declares monkeypox an “imminent threat”: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/york-state-declares-monkeypox-imminent-threat-public-health/story?id=87578480 .
Meanwhile, San Francisco declares monkeypox “emergency”: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/more-than-780k-doses-of-monkeypox-vaccine-available-friday-san-francisco-declares-state-of-emergency/ar-AA104G47?cvid=f2c6a89941f14450b73c7d2a57538313 .
Progress toward an HIV cure: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/5th-person-likely-cured-hiv-another-long-term-remission-rcna40116 . The science around stem cell transplants has made remarkable progress over the past 20 years. At some point, it may support an HIV cure.
Uses of big data in healthcare: https://www.datapine.com/blog/big-data-examples-in-healthcare/ . Health insurers are now releasing claims data, as required by federal law (hospitals have been slower to comply). However, the data files are massive and present processing problems for interested parties. A front-end question should be, What do you hope to learn from the data? This article may be of use in thinking through that question.
US economy now in recession: https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2022-advance-estimate . Note that the 1.6% contraction in Q1 has been followed by a 0.9% contraction in Q2. Also note that in the chart provided, in the 2020 pandemic disruption the (roughly) 30% contraction in Q2 was followed by a 32% expansion in Q3. It is tempting to think that these are offsetting changes, but that visual comparison is misleading. The math is (.70)(1.32)=0.924, or a 7.6% net contraction.
If we expect the economy to grow 3% a year, a contraction in a quarter is a significant departure. So, two negative quarters is a noticeable contraction and an appropriate definition of a recession. Again, inflation is at 40-year highs and the Fed says its primary current goal is to move that down toward its 2% annual goal. So there is significant risk that Q3 will also show contraction, which will make the current recession discussion academic.
This article provides useful details behind the numbers: https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-shrinks-4ffd93331422cb131a974223dad5825f . Note how damaging inflation is to the calculation. This requires the Fed to keep raising rates until there is substantial cooling.
Terrifyingly, here’s an economist who sees the data the same way I do: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/u-s-headed-for-massive-layoffs-economist/ar-AA104zXz?cvid=acadf32c2bdb4d73820e4e2eab9e4514 . What is worse, he believes the recession will be considerably deeper than I do, and suggests a near-depression. Even if the Fed cannot achieve a soft landing, we have to hope that the resulting landing will not be this hard.
And here’s a Harvard economist with a similar view: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/what-will-cause-us-to-go-into-a-deep-recession-harvard-economist-weighs-in/ar-AA104Jv4?cvid=04eb01c3707345fbbae4192306ff855b . I see this as the start of lobbying the Fed to stop raising interest rates. Powell’s remarks clearly indicate that inflation is Public Enemy #1 right now. Even if inflation drops from 9% to 6% in two months, the Fed is still way behind the curve and will still need the 50 basis point increase in September.
Why Manchin made the Inflation Reduction Act deal: https://news.yahoo.com/manchin-said-cut-last-minute-193509627.html . Also, the Democrats might have 52 seats in the Senate after the November elections, in which case Manchin is no longer co-president. More: https://apnews.com/article/inflation-biden-sports-congress-e499871130fa9881beb0618ebddfe88c . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-manchin-reaches-deal-with-chuck-schumer-on-energy-healthcare-package-11658957299 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-ready-carried-interest-tax-hike-after-15-year-lobbying-campaign-11659029989 .
However, there is an alternate theory. In this theory, Manchin walked away from this deal so Mitch McConnell would allow a vote on the chip subsidy bill. Right after that bill passed the Senate, Manchin flipped back so the Democrats could get both bills.
Details of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022: https://apnews.com/article/inflation-biden-health-climate-and-environment-7a267eeea21af0f44318e6b9d888c36c . The bill has many positive features. It helps many pay for healthcare. It (allegedly) reduces the trajectory of the federal deficit. But that is as close as the bill gets to fighting inflation. Here is analysis by the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget: https://www.crfb.org/blogs/whats-inflation-reduction-act . CRFB does find a reduction in the deficit over time from this bill. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/manchin-schumer-deal-would-have-moderate-inflation-fighting-effect-economists-say-11659039488 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/whats-in-joe-manchin-and-chuck-schumers-reconciliation-deal-on-climate-health-and-tax-policy-11658973323 .
House passes chip subsidy bill: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chips-act-house-senate-pass-subsidize-semiconductor-chip-production/ . This will help cover a critical gap in US manufacturing capability and national security. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-passes-chips-act-to-boost-u-s-semiconductor-production-11659035676 .
China will miss growth target but keeps Zero COVID: https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-beijing-xi-jinping-shanghai-c7ba0b843fdececb4f989b2923691c81 . These two items are intimately connected. WSJ: Another part of this miss is the real estate market contraction: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-pressures-cities-as-they-scramble-to-repair-ailing-property-markets-11659026586 . More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-needs-decisive-action-on-property-before-its-too-late-11659013010 .
Ukrainians make progress toward Kherson: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russians-cede-bridgehead-into-occupied-kherson . Given that the Russian offensive in the Donbas appears to be stalling out, the Ukrainians’ progress in the south may completely shift momentum in this ground-based slugfest.
Russian casualties in Ukraine: https://news.yahoo.com/russia-has-suffered-an-estimated-75000-casualties-in-ukraine-invasion-us-officials-say-150659381.html . Casualty figures are notoriously unreliable and involve a heavy dose of propaganda. However, this information is the best available and comes from Congressional testimony. The Russian death figure has been stuck at 15,000 for a long time; at best the original figure was a significant overestimate. Ukrainian military deaths are likely similar, with civilian casualties equal to or greater than that number.
The success of the HIMARS strikes must involve significant Russian casualties, as many involve ammo dumps and artillery positions: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M142_HIMARS . We can expect substantial casualties on both sides if Ukraine tries to retake Kherson. More praise for HIMARS: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-could-be-turning-the-tide-of-war-again-as-russian-advances-stall/ar-AA104n4P?cvid=bd6fcaec00d54f59b463715c3af8297e .
Can Russia stop HIMARS?: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-has-secret-development-to-take-down-u-s-himars-military-expert/ar-AA104jRi?cvid=4d11770e5c0b4dd3bf72232ccef5d136 . There are some obvious conclusions from this report. First, HIMARS has significantly hurt the Russians. Otherwise, they would not be talking about their “new defense”. Secondly, if they can compromise the HIMARS, why didn’t they do that to stop the takedown of the Kherson bridge? The Russians must offer proof before this claim has credibility. So far, none has appeared on the field of battle.
Kentucky casualties in Kentucky: https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-hit-with-deadly-flooding-following-second-1000-year-rain-event-in-3-days-201510178.html . Wait, the second 1,000-year rainfall in 3 days? Does everyone understand this is statistically impossible except for global warming and climate change? There is no new normal. There is only destruction of the world’s ecosystems. We have unleashed feedback loops into our natural environment which may be impossible to unwind. And impossible means the end of our natural environment.
Orange Julius permanently moves to Loserville: https://www.aol.com/news/exclusive-former-republicans-democrats-form-223654665-114742100.html . This fantasy lawsuit is a complete nonstarter. CNN’s First Amendment rights are fully supported by the incredible performance of the January 6 select committee. The fools who donate to this huckster get what they deserve – lost money. It may be slow, but OJ is now circling the drain. The November elections will further pull the plug.
Also, the RNC threat to stop paying hundreds of thousands in OJ legal bills is meaningless when OJ has raised hundreds of millions off the Big Lie (and come surprisingly close to overthrowing the 2020 election).
Meanwhile, John Bolton offers to pay OJ’s bus fare to Loserville: https://www.boltonsuperpac.com/poll_072822-1.php . Remarkably, Bolton has come out swinging on a point we have been emphasizing for some time: OJ’s “nominees” look like they will cost the GOP any chance of a Senate majority in the November elections.
Prosecutors slice and dice Steve Bannon’s whining over pre-trial publicity: https://news.yahoo.com/feds-issue-steve-bannons-claims-220113964.html . Any time a prosecutor files a three page response, they are confident that there is a fatal flaw in the defendant’s argument. This is a classic example.
Three irrelevant third parties consolidate into one irrelevant third party: https://www.aol.com/news/exclusive-former-republicans-democrats-form-223654665-114742100.html . The key sentence in the article: “Political analysts are skeptical it can succeed.” Their intent to field candidates represents a fatal mistake. It would make vastly more sense to let the two parties complete their primaries in each cycle, and then endorse and support centrist candidates. This party could then gain power by showing they could help swing tight races. So far, these people are not showing the desperately needed ability to think outside the box.
Alito pays his own bus fare to Loserville: https://thehill.com/policy/international/3579008-alito-pokes-fun-at-foreign-leaders-criticism-of-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade/ . Clearly, Alito is not a politician. Just as clearly, he lacks judgment. I never expected to see those words associated with a Supreme Court justice, let alone write them. I am appalled by this disrespectful and egocentric behavior.
Jet Blue buys Spirit: https://thepointsguy.com/news/by-the-numbers-jetblue-spirit-airlines-merger/ . Spirit deserves to disappear. A merger with Frontier would have sunk Frontier. Presumably Jet Blue will take most of Spirit’s operating personnel, planes and gates, and dump everything else. WSJ: A negative view of this deal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-pilot-shortage-shattered-frontiers-dream-to-buy-spirit-11659002170 . The insightful point here is that the pilot shortage placed a premium on buying a carrier flying similar planes. More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/spirit-jetblue-merger-travelers-bag-fees-free-11659014587 . Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/jetblue-agrees-to-buy-spirit-for-3-8-billion-11659005196 .
The continuous refloating of the “Jeopardy” boat: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/jeopardy-hosts-mayim-bialik-ken-jennings-season-39-222705397.html . So now we have a defined split schedule between the two hosts plus the promise of more as-yet-to-be-defined tournaments … Apparently nothing in media can be drama-free any more …