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News for June 17

WSJ: More details on UK dexamethasone study: https://www.wsj.com/articles/dexamethasone-improves-survival-in-severe-covid-19-patients-study-finds-11592317739?mod=djemHL_t . The study is relatively large (6,425 patients) but details are inadequate until a fuller description is published. I’m sticking with “hopeful” until we know more. More dark days for Florida: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/16/878932911/florida-officials-spar-over-rising-covid-19-cases . Feels like arranging deck chairs on the Titanic – although 1,500 died on the …

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News for June 16 — Dexamethasone Trial Hopeful

Hopeful trial of an anti-inflammatory steroid, dexamethasone, in severe COVID-19 cases: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-steroid/steroid-dexamethasone-reduces-deaths-among-patients-with-severe-covid-19-trial-shows-idUSL8N2DT3HE (link replaced 12/13/20). And the NHS has immediately authorized dexamethasone as standard treatment. https://www.businessinsider.com/dexamethasone-may-cut-risk-death-coronavirus-ventilator-patient-2020-6?nr_email_referer=1&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Insider_Today&utm_campaign=Post%2520Blast%2520%2520:%2520The%2520US%2520coronavirus%2520response%2520is%2520a%2520national%2520disgrace&utm_term=Business%2520Insider%2520Today . Here’s another free data source from the UK. Note that the graphic has linear and log scales: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus . The newsletter Insider Today cited this chart and then …

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News for June 15 — Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic Transmission

An article truly clarifying the difference between asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission, and also noting the CDC estimates that 35% of infected individuals are asymptomatic and that 40% of transmissions occur before the carrier feels ill: https://www.theladders.com/career-advice/asymptomatic-spreading-coronavirus?ltm=wsiEf/DIArMERsSGvxvTAZ05AgIQroWq9Fehn1%2B02kM%3D&subscriber_type=member&utm_content=sunday-DNL-6-14-20-laddersstore&utm_medium=email&utm_source=member&utm_campaign=daily-newsletter&utm_term=sunday-DNL-6-14-20-laddersstore No new information, but a nice video comprehensively explaining how scientists know the virus was not man-made: https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/tunedin/how-we-know-the-covid-19-coronavirus-wasnt-made-in-a-lab/vi-BB15p13w?ocid=spartandhp For …

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News for June 12

The New York Times data page: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html . Useful by-county data, mapped. Increasing cases in Arizona (and Arkansas and Utah): https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/06/10/arizona-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-increase-after-reopening/5332572002/ (link replaced 6/12/21). The above states plus 5 more to watch: https://www.vox.com/2020/6/10/21286696/us-covid-19-coronavirus-cases-update-texas-arizona-north-carolina . 6 of the 8 are former members of the Confederacy; 7 of the 8 have Republican governors. More on US data …

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News for June 8 — Chance of V-shaped Recovery Zero

As you know, my view is that the chance of a V-shaped recovery is zero for two reasons: the virus will be with us until a vaccine is globally distributed and administered, which is not in 2020, and the US economy is driven by consumer behavior: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-economy-consumers/scarred-and-scared-post-covid-consumers-not-their-old-selves-idUSKBN23F0VW (link replaced 12/6/20). WSJ: Documenting another key irritation …

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News for June 7

COVID-19 presents a technical problem we don’t often encounter. Almost all of my (career) work has involved a fixed data set run through a standard (customizable) model to produce a deterministic (financial) result. Here we are trying to get a handle on a pandemic developing in real time during our analysis, and our data sources …

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News for May 31 — Data Suppression Concerns

A summary of data reporting issues around the US: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/i-m-looking-truth-states-face-criticism-covid-19-data-n1202086 (link replaced 5/25/21). One link in (the original link) article leads to a discussion and comparison of public alert systems for coronavirus, quite useful: https://preventepidemics.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/STAYING-ALERT-Navigating-COVID-19-Risk-Toward-a-New-Normal_final.pdf . More data suppression concerns: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/27/bad-state-coronavirus-data-trump-reopening-286143 (link replaced 5/30/21). Some articles from Florida media on data “issues”: https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article242557271.html . And: https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-coronavirus-florida-pneumonia-flu-deaths-spike-20200417-lkel6rlik5blhd5zdktkrxhzze-story.html (links replaced 11/22/20). …

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News for May 22

The jump in Texas cases for this week is directly related to 700 cases at an Amarillo meatpacking plant, which received increased testing from a testing team: https://www.npr.org/2020/05/18/858236538/texas-faces-a-spike-in-the-coronavirus-cases-at-meatpacking-plants Several states are combining testing data for coronavirus and antibodies, including Texas and Georgia: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/ CDC provides estimates on the percentage of asymptomatic cases and mortality rates; …

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News for May 15

Peer-reviewed study on social distancing: https://www.foxnews.com/science/places-without-social-distancing-have-35-times-more-potential-coronavirus-spread-study-finds (link replaced 5/24/21). Data suppression at meat plants: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-us-nebraska-new-cases-meatpacking-plants-official-figures-a9511966.html (link replaced 5/14/21). Germany’s next wave?: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52604676 (link replaced 5/16/21). And Brazil, just “a little flu”: https://apnews.com/51e0ad7ee7d1ce702bdf887df466d047 (link replaced 7/28/20). WSJ: China’s efforts on virus source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-stalls-global-search-for-coronavirus-origins-wuhan-markets-investigation-11589300842?mod=djemHL_t Non-actuaries and mortality statistics: https://www.thedailybeast.com/dr-fauci-patiently-shuts-down-rand-paul-for-minimizing-virus-fears?ref=scroll Tension between public health experts and political economics …

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