Anti-aging technology: Senolytic drugs: https://www.drugdiscoverynews.com/a-new-strategy-for-fighting-age-related-disease-15613 . More: https://www.theactuarymagazine.org/breaking-the-dam/ . As this technology has been shown to work in mice, it has real potential for humans, and trials have begun. Note that significant success could dramatically affect healthcare costs and direction. It would also affect many life-related insurances, such as annuities and life insurance.
WSJ: Eating properly when taking Ozempic: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ozempic-diet-exercise-healthy-43eee86c .
WSJ: We don’t understand insurtech: https://www.wsj.com/articles/curb-your-ai-enthusiasm-just-look-at-the-insurtech-carnage-702bd1bb . As readers of this newsletter know, the list of things the Journal does not understand is a long one indeed. Two points about this article: (1) Insurtechs went public at a time of wildly excessive optimism about their capabilities, that’s why their stock prices have crashed; and (2) AI in general has not proven to be that good at analyzing statistics. One obvious example is the attempts to control the real estate market – most of the players spent their capital making purchasing mistakes.
Insurance is of course more complicated. The science of pricing must be joined with the art that comes from experience, and the AI models don’t have that (yet). Also, the writer apparently assumes that analysis is a commodity – it most assuredly is not.
WSJ: Fed expects two more rate increases: https://www.wsj.com/articles/powell-other-central-bankers-face-uncertain-inflation-outlook-30bd34e5 . The Journal‘s analysis here is nonexistent. For the past 18 months, the Fed has done exactly what it said it would do. The Fed says 2 more rates increases minimum, and no rate cuts until 2025 (because inflation won’t reach their target before then). So can anyone explain today’s US Treasury interest rates?
Those rates for the shortest length Treasures are: 5.32% for 3 months; 5.43% for 6 months; 5.32% for 12 months; and 4.71% for 2 years. Those rates mean the market anticipates a 25 basis point increase next month, another 25 bp increase after that, and then rapid rate cutting thereafter. After 18 months of wrongly distrusting what Powell says, the rapid rate cuts can only occur if the Fed abandons its inflation goal. That’s ridiculous, even if a moderately severe recession kicks in.
WSJ: FTX considers restart: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ftx-begins-talks-on-reboot-as-managers-uncover-past-misconduct-38ad7e3c . This seems highly unlikely. The name does not exactly have goodwill value.
Fallout from insurrection against Putin: General Surovikin arrested: https://news.yahoo.com/russian-general-surovikin-arrested-wagner-203234652.html . We asked yesterday who helped Prigozhin. Russia has supplied its apparent answer. However, 2 also seems too low a number to go against Putin; there still seems to be more purge to come.
WSJ: Prigozhin planned to capture Russian military leaders: https://www.wsj.com/articles/wagners-prigozhin-planned-to-capture-russian-military-leaders-805345cf . While the Journal describes this aa an exclusive, other outlets reported this earlier.
Russia working to take control of Wagner’s global operations: https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-moves-to-seize-control-of-wagners-global-empire-26d49286 . We will see, but I doubt this will occur seamlessly.
Russian insurrection hurts China’s efforts at global recognition: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-turmoil-undermines-chinas-global-diplomatic-push-5c8cfe4c .
WSJ: Chinese balloon used US equipment for spying activities: https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-balloon-used-american-tech-to-spy-on-americans-2e3f5039 .
Liz Cheney: “We’re electing idiots”: https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/liz-cheney-lambastes-state-american-222449439.html . You can hardly argue with Liz on this. But I will say, almost all of the Democrats at the national level are sincerely trying to get something done in concert with the belief that government should help working families. On the other side of the aisle, in addition to Orange Julius, we have senators like Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell, and House members like George Santos, Lauren Boebert and Kevin McCarthy, to name just a few.
The GOP is corrupt in a way we have never seen in American history. This is in part traceable to the Internet and Fox-Not-the-News, which allow repetition and dissemination of made-up “information”. As the GOP en masse (politicians and voters) refuses to recognize or tell the truth, by necessity they must fail if US democracy is to remain healthy. Demographics continue to move in favor of the Democrats, as younger Americans increasingly identify with the left. Also, GOP COVID policies and attitudes have accelerated deaths among their adherents, particularly in older Americans.
The GOP’s best chance in 2024? Make further inroads in the Hispanic vote. The Democrats’ best defense? Continue to advance and elect qualified Hispanic candidates, especially in districts with significant Hispanic populations.
Additionally, Democrats work hard to expand voting rights, while the GOP works hard to suppress the vote. Both sides work hard to manipulate the vote. American democracy will be stronger when voting is broadly available and encouraged. In Oregon, vote by mail has operated for more than 2 decades without fraud. This model would work well nationally. At some point, we will need to figure out secure voting online.
Orange Julius considers skipping first GOP debate, running competing event: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-explores-messing-first-gop-debate-holding-competing-event-rcna91292 . As just noted, this is not good for democracy in any way. Sadly, so far the GOP base has no interest in an exchange of information or ideas.
WSJ: Portland losing residents: https://www.wsj.com/articles/portland-ore-is-losing-residents-weary-of-crime-and-high-housing-prices-7b57eec3 . The article is correct. However, the city and state are now joined in addressing the homeless issue, and I expect that will pay dividends in the next 18 months.
Titan debris recovered, may include human remains: https://abcnews.go.com/International/debris-titan-submersible-brought-ashore-after-catastrophic-implosion/story?id=100444499 . Photos: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/titan-sub-titanic-photos-implosion-debris/ . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/presumed-human-remains-recovered-with-titan-submersible-wreckage-u-s-coast-guard-says-ca23d115 .
US stamp prices increase 4.76% to 66 cents: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/06/28/stamp-price-increase-usps/70363626007/ . The increase is blamed on inflation. I remember when today’s increase (3 cents) was the price of a stamp, which increased to 4 cents on August 1, 1958.