News for August 10 — Americans Lose Optimism about Pandemic

Americans lose optimism about pandemic: https://news.gallup.com/poll/396134/americans-less-optimistic-covid-situation.aspx . My sense is that many people thought the pandemic would end in eradication, when of course it will end when the disease becomes endemic. But no one knows the level of cases when the disease does become endemic. The current level of 100,000 cases per day seems quite high.

Stacey Abrams tests positive for COVID: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-covid-health-barack-obama-stacey-abrams-f575caa00ecef7a11ee8da61d03483a6 .

WSJ: Merck strikes Alzheimer’s research deal: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biotech-startup-cerevance-strikes-alzheimers-research-deal-with-merck-11660143334 .

WSJ: Polio booster for London children: https://www.wsj.com/articles/polio-booster-to-be-offered-to-children-in-london-as-virus-circulates-11660161539 .

New China animal-to-human virus transmission: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/new-virus-detected-in-china-infects-35-people-what-to-know/ar-AA10wQee?li=BBnb7Kz . Swell. At least there has been no human-to-human transmission – yet.

WSJ: Walgreen’s faces opioid liability for excessive distribution: https://www.wsj.com/articles/walgreens-helped-fuel-san-francisco-opioid-epidemic-judge-rules-11660165076 .

Evictions spike around the US: https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-homelessness-a06212c8b671f066ea70fe57737f6e2a . This is a natural result of the expiration of pandemic eviction moratoriums and spiking rental rates.

Inflation eases slightly in July: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/july-inflation-data-cpi-august-10-123330998.html . Economists had expected the rate to fall from 9.1% to 8.7%. The actual report is 8.5%. A 0.2% move in the data point has no real significance, especially when the Fed’s inflation target is 2%. We are still looking at an increase in the Fed’s interest rate of at least 50 basis points in September, pending August inflation data.

WSJ: Inflation details for July: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-inflation-hit-households-in-july-higher-prices-for-food-electricity-and-alcohol-consumed-at-home-11660160532 .

WSJ: 2023 Social Security increase projected at 9.6%: https://www.wsj.com/articles/social-security-benefits-are-heading-for-the-biggest-increase-in-40-years-11660138256 .

The bears believe the bear market has not yet roared: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/bubble-expert-jeremy-grantham-predicts-a-huge-decline-in-stocks-tears-into-bitcoin-and-slams-the-fed-in-a-new-interview-here-are-the-10-best-quotes/ar-AA10wB1B?li=BBnb7Kz . One thing Grantham mentions strikes me as true in the data but not understood by the markets. In my youth (when the US was still adding states), and throughout the 20th century, asset classes moved separately, making diversification an excellent safety precaution. But now, assets move much more in tandem. So Grantham’s comments about a multiasset bubble should be taken very seriously.

Iran targets John Bolton and Mike Pompeo for assassination: https://news.yahoo.com/mike-pompeo-also-targeted-in-alleged-iranian-assassination-plot-against-john-bolton-194317862.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/iranian-national-sought-to-kill-john-bolton-u-s-says-11660143066 .

Orange Julius takes the Fifth in New York State tax fraud investigation: https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-ny-investigation-testimony-a4e6264d44b194d24dfb916ffc7f51ca . The consequences of taking the Fifth: https://apnews.com/article/what-does-pleading-the-fifth-mean-0d24abd45972cd80f82f95e4a8eec225 . The bottom line is that while taking the Fifth is not admissible as evidence in a criminal trial, it often is in a civil trial. The New York State action is a civil action. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-says-he-will-meet-with-new-york-attorney-general-on-wednesday-11660128666 .

Will the NY Attorney General finally nail OJ’s butt to the wall?: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ny-ag-may-seek-corporate-death-penalty-for-trump-tower-%e2%80%94-and-all-his-golf-courses-legal-expert/ar-AA10wPMG?li=BBnb7Kz . At first glance, this article looks like a liberal wish list for taking OJ off the American political scene. However, looks are deceiving. First, this lawyer shut down Trump University under the same state law he describes here. Second, the NY AG surely expected OJ to take the Fifth, as OJ’s kids did before him. That was the point, since taking the Fifth is admissible as evidence in civil cases. So third, we should expect the decision on indictment very soon, since this type of deposition is often the wrap-up to such an investigation.

Feds subpoena multiple offices in Pennsylvania state capitol relating to the fake elector scandal: https://www.rawstory.com/scott-perry-doug-mastriano/ . This article says “dropped” when it means “delivered”.  Still, this news is an important step in putting together the January 6 insurrection puzzle.

Meanwhile, Marjorie Taylor Greene provides screwball comic relief: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/mtg-fbi-seize-scott-perry-phone . This would be totally hilarious if the overthrow of the US democracy were not involved.

Sacramento Bee nukes Kevin McCarthy over Garland threat: https://nordot.app/930011051085512704?c=592622757532812385 . When a California newspaper reams out a California Congressman with a good shot to become Speaker, you can be sure they are repulsed by this Orange Julius toady.

Explosions at Russian base in Crimea suggest Ukraine is broadening its attacks: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-mocks-russia-after-explosions-at-crimean-air-base-11660123645 .