AI breast cancer diagnosis superior: https://spotlight.kaiserpermanente.org/mammography-ai-risk-prediction/ . In short, the study shows that AI is better, faster and cheaper than diagnosis by a radiologist. Were I a radiologist specializing in breast cancer, I’d find something else to do, especially since AI is only going to improve.
WSJ: Merck sues US government over Medicare price negotiation: https://www.wsj.com/articles/merck-challenges-u-s-governments-new-powers-to-negotiate-drug-prices-127d4b0c . The Journal hints around some obvious points. Overall, this is an idiotic Constitutional claim. Of course, no one has the right to force sale of a product to anyone else at the price they set – what they have is the right not to sell. The experts in the article suggest Merck may be able to nibble at some of the edges of the legislation. If so, that’s the lawsuit they should have filed. Judges generally dislike obviously overbroad claims, like Merck’s approach here.
WSJ: Transgender sports litigation: https://www.wsj.com/articles/transgender-sports-rules-face-court-test-3c5b1aca .
Border arrests have dropped 70% since Title 42 ended: WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/articles/border-arrests-have-dropped-70-since-title-42-ended-biden-administration-says-3d00dc48 . This article tries like hell to avoid the obvious conclusion. The administration has made it possible for people to apply without crossing into the US, and severely penalizes those who do cross illegally. They heavily communicated the new approach in advance of the change, and all evidence is that it’s working as intended.
WSJ: The future of remote work at Farmers: https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-ceo-says-employees-cant-work-remotely-after-all-and-they-revolt-81135399 . The Journal as usual missed the boat here. The headline should read, “New CEO Fails to Ask Employees before Reversing Remote Work Promise”. If the board is paying any attention, this guy should be on the ropes already.
WSJ: US wants auditors to perform more independent audits: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-regulator-proposes-more-active-role-for-auditors-in-detecting-companies-law-violations-ccf12f69 . This article would be helped by pointing out the large frauds and bankruptcies that have occurred in recent years.
In the 20 years since the PCAOB was set up, the three largest bankruptcies have been Lehman Brothers (which truly rocked the world), Washington Mutual (brought down in the mortgage securities turmoil, which also rocked the world), and Enron (massive fraud). A major bankruptcy that burned both stockholders and lenders was Sears in 2018 ($11 million in liabilities, $7 million in assets). And of course we had two recent massive bank bankruptcies, SVB and Signature, the second and third largest of all time behind Washington Mutual.
This is why PCAOB, 20 years after it was set up, had to finally move in this area. There have been long-term demands that auditors actually do what most of us consider to be their job. The research is not hard, WSJ. Could you hire some people who actually do it?
SEC sues Coinbase: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sec-sues-coinbase-as-pressure-on-crypto-world-rises-144019913.html . Yesterday, I called the SEC Binance suit another shoe dropping on the crypto industry. If so, then the entire shoe closet fell today as the SEC took on the largest crypto exchange in the US, Coinbase. Coinbase has an interesting defense, that they have tried to register but there is no path to do so. Indeed, Coinbase sued SEC in April trying to force disclosure of SEC’s plans in this area. It certainly appears a court will have to sort all this out, although as the article notes, the US crypto exchange Kraken paid $30 million in fines to settle similar SEC charges. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sues-coinbase-says-it-is-unregistered-broker-dealer-95ec0637 .
Jim Cramer sees Binance and Coinbase as “massive fraud”: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/23/06/32746276/cramer-slams-crypto-exchanges-coinbase-and-binance-calls-situation-massive-fraud .
WSJ: World Bank global economic outlook: https://www.wsj.com/articles/world-bank-brightens-view-of-global-growth-this-year-downgrades-2024-58ce3726 . Sigh. The Journal is unable to understand the facts it reports. As the article clearly indicates, the World Bank upgraded the first half of 2023. We’re already in June. So the first half is essentially over. The World Bank sees weakening in the second half, and has lowered its global outlook for 2024. In other words, over the next 18 months, we’re headed downward.
The AI threat: https://www.the-sun.com/news/8276320/ai-scientists-digital-brain-surpass-humans/ . There’s a lot of talk about regulating AI, but not much detail has been proposed. I agree with Kevin that deep fake technology has no real purpose except mischief, and as such it should be banned. But that’s hardly comprehensive regulation.
Ultimately, regulation must involve severe financial penalties and/or jail time. You can’t put AI in jail. Also, it’s not obvious how to put developers in jail. Deep fake technology has had many contributors. How do you pick the bad apple out of this barrel, or even know who they are? It seems to me regulation has to focus on the users who are bad actors, and therefore the regulation has to focus on prohibiting bad uses of AI. Is there a free speech right to false speech? Yes, but not if its intent is to deceive – that’s fraud.
You can see where this is heading. We need to punish those who publish Internet material intended to deceive. So, for example, under existing legal principles, Orange Julius should go to jail for January 6 and lying to the FBI about having turned over all the classified documents. We may indeed get there with OJ. But also, we need to adapt our existing legal principles to punish Internet users who publish with intent to deceive. And that’s a reasonable basis from which to develop regulations.
A consequence here is that development of AI continues mostly unimpeded. That’s reasonable, because we can only regulate the US. Competitors like China and Russia won’t stop development. They should, however, be subject to penalty for distributing deceptive material in the US, and that’s an acceptable initial regulatory consequence.
Meanwhile, Orange Julius may face a second grand jury indictment: https://www.salon.com/2023/06/06/sounds-like-two-sets-of-indictments-nyt-reveals-existence-of-second-florida-mar-a-lago-grand-jury/ . The New York Times revealed the existence of the special prosecutor’s grand jury. While the situation is unclear, it seems reasonable that the second grand jury may be looking at Florida indictments of Mar-a-Lago employees participating in possible obstruction of justice. Here is the WSJ reporting cited in the Salon article: https://www.wsj.com/articles/doj-donald-trump-lawyers-document-probe-e8c8e7c3 .
WSJ: Ukraine brings the war to Russia: https://www.wsj.com/articles/from-drone-strikes-to-ground-incursions-war-comes-to-russia-6f1ff9b . The Journal indicates that some part of this is to change attitudes of the Russian people about the war and Putin, which seems obvious. The greater risk is to do too much and lose Western support.
Wagner boss disputes claims of Russian military: https://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-thwarts-another-major-220903285.html . It does seem that the claims of 1500 Ukrainian casualties are inflated. Otherwise, this is a very poor start to Ukraine’s counter-offensive. Meanwhile, General Milley expects the war to be long: https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-milley-fighting-f6d74c61f79cc6e380c8897155742373 . This, it seems to me, depends on the motivation of the Russian troops. If Ukraine can penetrate to areas manned by newer recruits, things could move quickly. We will see.
UPDATE: From reports on BBC TV, Russia’s top general claims the Ukrainian troops had 3,000 casualties while the Russians had only 700 after 3 days of increased conflict. I agree with the Wagner boss that these claims are not credible.
Major Ukrainian dam and hydroelectric facility destroyed: https://abcnews.go.com/International/strategically-vital-nova-khakovka-dam-blown-border-ukraine/story?id=99863763 . Both sides blame the other. Current reporting does not clarify the situation. However, the dam and surrounding area have been under Russian control for more than a year. Blowing up the dam removes a major access point to the south and Crimea from the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Furthermore, only Russia has used mass destruction of nonmilitary targets as a part (indeed, the focus) of its military campaign. I think it is obvious that the Russians did this, and why they did it.
Also, the Geneva Conventions explicit prohibit attacking dams during military operations. This is a war crime. The Ukrainians have been fastidious in documenting and prosecuting war crimes committed by the Russians. Again, it’s obvious that the Russians committed this additional war crime.
Regardless of fault, not only have the wheat fields and villages south of the dam been flooded, but the huge reservoir behind the dam is used to cool the Zaporizhzhia nuclear facility, 150 miles upstream. Apparently, the facility has contingency plans if this cooling water is lost, and the nuclear facility is not at immediate risk of failure.
If Ukraine ultimately does regain control of its territory, it will take years to rebuild the country. Will Russia be forced to pay reparations? Will the West have to rebuild Ukraine? WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-we-know-about-nova-kakhovka-dam-destruction-34bfc197 . This article is not very helpful, but since the Journal promises updates, perhaps it will gain information by the time you read today’s newsletter.
Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/major-dam-destroyed-in-russian-occupied-ukraine-8cd10725 . Again, this is basic stuff. There is an interesting historical note at the end of the article. The Nazis damaged the prior dam in 1941. They repaired it, but blew it up again when they retreated in 1943 (what does that tell you about who blew it up now?). One problem, though: the current dam and hydroelectric facility were built between 1950 and 1956. So at best the Journal is discussing a prior dam.
There is another possibility about the dam’s failure being discussed, which is that it could have simply failed rather than being blown up. Water behind the dam has built up to unsafe levels in recent months. So either this incompetent operation caused the dam to fail, or the Russians intentionally built up the water level so it would cause maximum damage when the flood occurred. Either way, the Russians were operating the dam, so they are responsible for the results under this theory as well.
GOP hardliners derail McCarthy’s agenda: https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/06/politics/republican-revolt-mccarthy-rule-vote/index.html . As the Nut World turns … you might say McCarthy had electoral dysfunction today. A blue pill won’t fix this.
WSJ: McCarthy against additional funding for Ukraine: https://www.wsj.com/articles/mccarthy-opposes-extra-ukraine-spending-after-debt-deal-cf967c6 . So now we have to listen to Kevin kissing conservative asses to shut them up. Kevin does lay out the way for Senate Republicans to win him over: show clear justification for the additional spending. That’s not tough, and Kevin will have to sell out the conservatives again – provided he understands that the Western world desperately needs Ukraine to win.
Federal judge kicks Ron DeMentis right in the … sexual identity: https://apnews.com/article/transgender-health-desantis-florida-033556c6a4c301d9ad342c74a6410800 . While Ron’s office says this precedent does not apply to others, it is hard to see how that statement can hold up. Apparently Ron hasn’t tired of losing his culture war battles yet. WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-judge-blocks-floridas-ban-on-transgender-treatment-for-minors-ca5e8147 .
Names of George Santos bond co-signers must go public: https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/06/politics/george-santos-court-bond-paid/index.html . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/george-santos-bond-cosigners-will-be-made-public-judge-rules-3e43c84e . Santos is in a pickle here. Surrendering to custody does not prevent the bond information from going public. It is already officially recorded. I also don’t see his basis of appeal.
WSJ: Boeing finds a new defect in the 787: https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-delays-dreamliner-deliveries-after-new-defect-found-db5f64f2 .
Did “meet the Press” fire Chuck Todd?: https://www.mediaite.com/tv/dan-abrams-calls-out-nbc-and-chuck-todd-for-claiming-his-meet-the-press-exit-is-voluntary-almost-certainly-a-lie/ . Abrams has a point here. Sadly, he is probably right that dropping ratings plus “white guy” doomed Todd. As readers know, I praised Todd for running the best of the Sunday talk shows.
WSJ: iPhone system update is coming: https://www.wsj.com/articles/apple-ios-17-features-b7dde486 . An upgrade two years ago forced me to ditch my iPhone 5 for an iPhone-12. This upgrade won’t operate on iPhones 8 and earlier (although your phone may remain operable; the article is unclear).
Initial Apple headset reviews: BRUTAL!: https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/technology/2023/6/5/23750064/apple-vision-pro-goggles-wwdc-2023-spatial-computing-peter-kafka . My comment yesterday: Still a loser. The experts’ reviews are less kind. Apple suggests they are like ski goggles, but Business Insider calls them “nerd goggles”, meaning you can’t wear them in public (for example, at the airport) because they are “uncool”. Together with the astonishingly high price of $3500, there could be a few business settings that try these, but the goggles are an immediate flop as a mass consumer product. Will developers make “cool” apps and save this thing? Very unlikely.
WSJ: Apple headset? We’re not sure: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-corporate-metaverse-was-on-life-support-apple-may-or-may-not-change-that-a219bf3a . Apparently the Journal is unwilling to criticize Apple. The people they quote are at best wait-and-see on Apple’s “nerd goggles”. More: https://www.wsj.com/articles/apples-vision-pro-joins-crowded-field-trying-to-make-headsets-the-next-big-thing-6fe21e86 . Basically there’s just background info here, although there is an Apple promo photo showing a model wearing the headset. Still more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/apples-augmented-reality-faces-real-questions-711e6ec2 . Nothing here represents real analysis. The Journal’s journalism continues to weaken. At this level of writing quality, I’m guessing AI will replace the entire staff within 2 years.
We’re already in fire season: https://www.aol.com/red-flag-warnings-issued-6-133608287.html . You are probably already aware of the serious problems in Canada. However, the West, despite considerable rain and snowpack is in trouble early. For example, we have had no rain in Portland in over 3 weeks, which is weird for this time of year. We had two major brush fires within the metropolitan area yesterday, because the brush is already like kindling. Things are only going to get worse … here, no rain is forecast for at least the next two weeks, after which our typical dry season begins …
WSJ: Shooting outside Richmond high school graduation kills 2, injures 5: https://www.wsj.com/articles/seven-shot-outside-richmond-va-high-school-graduation-9a0da38d . The Journal does not tell us the weapon used, but CNN reports the 19-year-old suspect had 4 handguns: https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/06/us/richmond-shooting-virginia/index.html . How does a 19-year-old get 4 handguns? We need to know …
The PGA and LIV announce merger: https://sports.yahoo.com/the-pga-tour-liv-golf-merger-explained-who-won-who-lost-what-it-means-for-fans-171648750.html . Bottom line: Money won. The players loyal to the PGA got screwed, while the ones who jumped ship got rich. And the Saudis now own the PGA. That is only because their country sits on a vast pool of fossil fuel that is killing everyone and everything on the planet. The Saudis, from Afghanistan to Khashoggi to Yemen, are pariahs on the world stage. I am disgusted, and may quit watching golf. The key question: will the PGA players receive compensation for their loyalty? If the answer is no, I’m out …
UPDATE: The Journal’s Jason Day weighs in, with a view essentially identical to mine, except he’s not considering stopping watching golf because … they pay him to do it. More than ironic, don’t you think?: https://www.wsj.com/sports/golf/pga-tour-liv-golf-2eeeb524 . WSJ: More: https://www.wsj.com/sports/golf/pga-tour-liv-golf-merger-saudi-arabia-4414bd66 .
FURTHER UPDATE: The players are indeed as angry as I am, and that’s only the ones who have commented publicly: https://www.sbnation.com/golf/2023/6/6/23751537/pga-tour-liv-golf-merger-players-betrayed-humiliated .